Boxing Simulator Results and Predictions

[pfcwintergreen]

I've been messing around with a piece of software, "Title Bout Championship", which essentially amounts to a boxing simulator. It is incredibly intricate, with data sets for most major boxers modern and historical (and subsets for different phases of their career/weight classes). It even claims to adjust for specific referees, biased judging (common judges have their own data sets),conditioning, cutmen, trainers etc.

In short, its fun. And it seems far more accurate than I expected.

Here are some of the match ups I tested. (note that the Ko/decision numbers are only for the fighter who won the majority of bouts)

Pavlik Vs Taylor 100 bouts (both fighters set at "Top Condition" and in their "prime")

Pavlik won 61.00% of the matches.
Average rounds for wins: 7.90
Decisions: 14
Unanimous Decisions: 12
Split Decisions: 1
Majority Decisions: 1
Stoppages (avg. rounds): 47 (6.68)
Knockouts: 18 (6.33)
Technical Knockouts: 29 (6.90)

Note: If Emmanuel Steward is selected as Taylor's trainer, as opposed to "generic", Taylor wins 1 percent more of the bouts (lol, I'm not sure what to take away from that)

Note: If Steve Smoger is selected as ref, nothing changes except there are fewer stoppages and more decisions.

Vazquez Vs. Marquez 100 bouts -adjusted for Marquez moving up in weight (both fighters set at "Top Condition" and in their "prime[s]")

Vazquez won 68.00% of the matches(Marquez wins a slight majority of bouts if test is run weight neutral-ie without accounting for Marquez moving up in weight).
Average rounds for wins: 7.38
Decisions: 13
Unanimous Decisions: 9
Split Decisions: 3
Majority Decisions: 1
Stoppages (avg. rounds): 56 (6.30)
Knockouts: 27 (6.41)
Technical Knockouts: 29 (6.21)
Referee's Decision: 21 (6.29)
Due to Cuts: 7 (6.00)
Due to Disqualification: 1 (6.00)

Hopkins Vs. Wright 100 bouts(Hopkins set as LHW POST-PRIME, Winky set at as a middle weight going up to LH.Used default setting for winky otherwise-not sure if thats "prime" or not).

Hopkins won 53.00% of the matches.
Average rounds for wins: 10.62
Decisions: 38
Unanimous Decisions: 24
Split Decisions: 9
Majority Decisions: 5
Stoppages (avg. rounds): 15 (7.13)
Knockouts: 3 (5.00)
Technical Knockouts: 12 (7.67)
Referee's Decision: 3 (7.33)
Due to Cuts: 7 (8.29)
Due to Disqualification: 2 (6.00)

I also tested some upcoming bouts:

Miguel Cotto vs Alfonso Gomez 100 bouts. (both fighters set at "Top Condition" and in their "prime[s]")

Cotto won 86.00% of the matches.-perhaps this is rather charitable to Gomez?
Average rounds for wins: 9.14
Decisions: 34
Unanimous Decisions: 28
Split Decisions: 4
Majority Decisions: 2
Stoppages (avg. rounds): 52 (7.27)
Knockouts: 22 (7.23)
Technical Knockouts: 30 (7.30)
Referee's Decision: 24 (6.88)
Due to Swelling: 1 (6.00)
Due to Cuts: 5 (9.60)

Antonio Tarver Vs. Clinton Woods 100 bouts

On most settings, Tarver wins the vast majority of the bouts. However, if we set Tarver's career at "end" (ie a condition worse than "post-prime") he wins only 52 percent of them.

If Tarver's career is set at "end", and his condition set as "aging and inconsistent" these are the results:

Woods won 56.00% of the matches.
Average rounds for wins: 9.48
Decisions: 24
Unanimous Decisions: 17
Split Decisions: 5
Majority Decisions: 2
Stoppages (avg. rounds): 32 (7.72)
Knockouts: 23 (7.78)
Technical Knockouts: 9 (7.56)
Referee's Decision: 2 (9.50)
Due to Cuts: 6 (6.83)
Due to Disqualification: 1 (8.00)
4.00% of the matches have been draws.


interesting.

I might run Hopkins/Calzaghe later if anyone is interested....or perhaps some other fights.

any thoughts?

[ИATAS]

yeah do joe vs bhop for ****s & giggles

[T-97]

Hey where do you get this program from and do you have to pay??

[pfcwintergreen]

Hey where do you get this program from and do you have to pay??

Yeah..you have to pay for it, unless you can find a ******* or something for it (I couldn't).

This is the company's website:

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/tb/

[Boogie Nights]

yeah i know about this bull****. one clown was so serious about it, he made a stimulated match between tyson and ken norton in a 15 round fight. anyways the machine had norton winning 11 rounds, with tyson commiting 12FOULS, and with norton being the ultimate winner after taking tyson chin punches for 15 round stretch. it was on another site, i got so worked up and basically cussed the guy out, and they almost banned me lol. i just cant take this bull****, and the thing was the guy was actually taking it all serious. yeah like norton would survive with a puncher like tyson for 15 rounds. and i dont know how the **** a fighter would fight with 12 fouls and not get disqualified. games are bull****

[pfcwintergreen]

Doesn't sound like this program....never got that many fouls with tyson..and disqualifications come pretty much as they should.

Maybe the game is bull****, but I havent had a problem with fouls.

[pfcwintergreen]

Okay, I ran some Hopkins Vs. Calzaghe sims. I also ran some of their previous fights in order to judge how accurately the game might depict these fighters. In the end I think the game overestimates Calzaghe, especially in terms of punching power.

Hopkins Vs. Calzaghe - Fight set at LHW, weight differences and career stage taken into account. Here are the full stats:

Hopkins won 32.00% of the matches.
Average rounds for wins: 10.56
Decisions: 21
Unanimous Decisions: 12
Split Decisions: 4
Majority Decisions: 5
Stoppages (avg. rounds): 11 (8.27)
Knockouts: 2 (10.50)
Technical Knockouts: 9 (7.78)
Referee's Decision: 4 (8.25)
Due to Cuts: 4 (7.00)
Due to Disqualification: 1 (9.00)
Calzaghe won 64.00% of the matches.
Average rounds for wins: 9.97
Decisions: 39
Unanimous Decisions: 32
Split Decisions: 6
Majority Decisions: 1
Stoppages (avg. rounds): 25 (6.80)
Knockouts: 7 (5.71)
Technical Knockouts: 18 (7.22)
Referee's Decision: 5 (5.20)
Due to Swelling: 3 (8.00)
Due to Cuts: 10 (8.00)
4.00% of the matches have been draws.

All those Hopkins losses by TKO don't sit well with me either, although Calzaghe can certainly try and produce them with swarms of pitty-pats.

I did the following tests to judge the fighter models:

Prime Hopkins versus prime Taylor: no contest, Hopkins crushes Taylor.

Late-era Hopkins versus prime Jermain Taylor: Hopkins won 54.00% of the matches


So far so good..

Calzaghe versus Kessler: Calzaghe won 86.00% of the matches.

This tells me once again that their Calzaghe model is off....I think he and Kessler were much more evenly matched than that.

[GodOfWar]

Calzaghe versus Kessler: Calzaghe won 86.00% of the matches.

This tells me once again that their Calzaghe model is off....I think he and Kessler were much more evenly matched than that.

You have it set at a younger Calzaghe who had more pop behind his punches and could make kessler look like a bum then. Even though Kessler is a good fighter, Calzaghe is underrated. Calzaghe ko'd veit in the first round, and then everyone consider Veit a bum yet it was just that calzaghe was that good

[King Koopa]

Run Cotto/Mayweather...

[AntonTheMeh]

try the floyd vs cotto.