Hopkins-Calzaghe.... how I see it going...

[ИATAS]

Hopkins' age is irrelevant. It looks to me like Joe has slowed more than Hopkins has, actually. Everyone gets hung up on age as numbers. "Age" as determined in boxing terms is a formula which includes age as a number, but factors in how much punishment a fighter has taken, how they fight, how they train, how they spar, how hard of an amateur career they had, and just genetically how age has affected them.

Hopkins has been partly genetically lucky not to have fallen off, and partly because he protects himself very well and hasn't been in but a few fights where he's taken punishment, and not one of those in a long time. I mean, Vargas is what---30? And the guy has been done for years. Other fighters haven't even gotten their careers good and started until they turn 30. Age is not a number in boxing. It's a lot more than that.

Both Hopkins and Calzaghe are past the "Best if Used By" expiration date by conventional boxing standards, but both have still proven to be on top and either should absolutely get their due credit for a win.

great post, I'd give you more green Karma if I could

[Bhopreign]

I haven't been too into the boards lately, or religiously watching as much boxing as I used to, for those of you who were around a few years ago know, but this is a fight that certainly intrigues me, as I've watched both of these guys fight for the past ten years at least. Here's how I see it, for those of you who are betting on it, points...money...whatever...

Now this fight is at least 7 years overdue, and I confess I said Hopkins would never take this fight, but he's finally found the stars aligning just right. Hopkins is naturally a little bigger, and has had time to settle into 175 nicely, which is really a natural weight for him, and I think Hopkins liked what he saw from Joe against Kessler. Joe didn't throw much with real power, used those big gloves, and seemed to have lost just a little and like I said, Hopkins thinks the time is right, finally. Hopkins doesn't take a fight unless he smells weakness, sees little danger, or thinks he has a big advantage of some kind. Hopkins isn't out to challenge himself or prove he's a warrior, or any of that macho stuff-- Hopkins fights for money and his legacy, and has for a long time now.

The key to winning for Joe is to watch the Taylor fights. Taylor's haymakers and Hopkins' overcautiousness won Taylor the fight. I saw someone try to compare Joe's power to Jermaine's in another thread, and ask if Joe punches harder. Yes, I think Joe's a little stronger than Jermaine, and yes if he sells out on a shot it's going to be harder than Taylor's punches, but Taylor sold out several times per early round, every round, against Hopkins in their first fight, and even though most of them missed or were blocked, they still won him the fights. Why? Because Hopkins fights very cautiously. He wanted no part of those punches, thought that Taylor would tire and miscalculated when to push the fight, once the steam came of Taylor's punches around the 7th-8th round (but it was too late by then).

Joe would be wise to learn from that. Hopkins is a physical specimen, and really has no weaknesses there, and his boxing game doesn't have many weaknesses either, except inactivity and overcautiousness. That is the way to beat him: mentally. Because Hopkins is a smart fighter, but not nearly as smart as he thinks he is. If Joe can get his respect early, put him on the defensive, and put a lot of cautiousness in Hopkins, then he wins. If he lets Hopkins get comfortable early, or isn't active or pushing Hopkins back, then he's in trouble.

If I were a betting man, I'd bet on Hopkins. Hopkins is going to be naturally a little bigger and stronger than Joe, and he's going to give Joe the ring I believe, and try to move back and counter. Joe is certainly there to be hit at times, and Hopkins is going to look for a big counter-right hand, probably around the middle rounds.

I believe if Joe uses those poofy gloves and tries to beat Hopkins with a swarm of light activity, as with Kessler, then I think he will lose and get overwhelmed by either a Hopkins swarm or a big counter in the mid-lates. Joe needs to use the tighter gloves he fought Lacy with, hands be damned, and needs to sell-out on some big shots early, esp on the inside. It doesn't matter if they miss or not, they will make Hopkins cautious and fearful of getting caught with a big punch. And then Joe could conceivably coast to victory just by keeping Hopkins off-balance and on the defensive. Hopkins doesn't listen to his corner, and doesn't really make adjustments, and if things get going the wrong way for Hopkins early, then he's in trouble. Hopkins always thinks he's right, and always thinks he's winning, and really only listens to Hopkins.

But I don't think Joe has that in him anymore. 10 years ago, five years ago, even three years ago, Joe beats Hopkins handily. But unlike many out there, I didn't like what I saw from Joe against Kessler. It was dominant and impressive, yes, but it doesn't add up to a victory against Hopkins. And I'm not sure if Joe can turn back the clock and wake that dragon again. He will need to, and will need to punch bigger and have better defense than he has shown lately in order to have a chance.

So, in the end, bet on Hopkins if you have to bet. Vegas just hasn't been good to the overseas fighters, and I think Joe has faded just enough for the move up in weight to work against him. Hopkins is just going to be stronger and more natural at 175.

It'll be fun to watch, either way.

This couldnt be farther from the truth, I could pick almost everything you said apart, hard to believe you have watched Hopkins the last ten years and came up with this. Totally wrong.

[mECHsLAVE]

This couldnt be farther from the truth, I could pick almost everything you said apart, hard to believe you have watched Hopkins the last ten years and came up with this. Totally wrong.

Go for it. LOL

[warp1432]

Hopkins doesn't take a fight unless he smells weakness, sees little danger, or thinks he has a big advantage of some kind. Hopkins isn't out to challenge himself or prove he's a warrior, or any of that macho stuff-- Hopkins fights for money and his legacy, and has for a long time now.

It's definetely this one for this fight. Maybe the big advantage one too.

The key to winning for Joe is to watch the Taylor fights. Taylor's haymakers and Hopkins' overcautiousness won Taylor the fight.

Not really. If anything Hopkins didn't have the stamina to keep a constant pace at Middleweight anymore since he was 40. At Lightheavy, he's more refreshed and can keep a better pace. Nowhere near his prime though.

and doesn't really make adjustments

This is really the only thing I disagreed one. Bernard makes a lot of adjustments. He picked up the pace against De La Hoya in his fight and picked him apart. Against Winky he adjusted to Winky's agression when Winky tried to jump him. They are suttle adjustments, but that's why he's so effective in making the other guy fight his fights. Little adjustments here and there throwing the other guy off.

[mECHsLAVE]

It's definetely this one for this fight. Maybe the big advantage one too.



Not really. If anything Hopkins didn't have the stamina to keep a constant pace at Middleweight anymore since he was 40. At Lightheavy, he's more refreshed and can keep a better pace. Nowhere near his prime though.



This is really the only thing I disagreed one. Bernard makes a lot of adjustments. He picked up the pace against De La Hoya in his fight and picked him apart. Against Winky he adjusted to Winky's agression when Winky tried to jump him. They are suttle adjustments, but that's why he's so effective in making the other guy fight his fights. Little adjustments here and there throwing the other guy off.

We disagree on that one. You think that Hopkins was just being defensive for 8 rounds against Taylor because he didn't have the energy anymore? I know what a wary fighter looks like, and I can tell you that Hopkins was worried about getting caught and thought Taylor would gas out and fall off (which Taylor did, but he won enough rounds before he gassed, to win). Taylor was full of nervous energy, and throwing his haymakers. I honestly believe Hopkins had the energy to go an active 12 rounds and beat Taylor. He just didn't do it. I think that loss was a mental one, a miscalculation, not a sign of physical demise.

As for the DLH fight, yes you're right he stepped it up and got DLH off his game, because Hopkins saw he was being outworked. But DLH's power is not even in the Taylor ballpark. That was an easy adjustment. He does make them, but most feel DLH's early good work was more a result of a gentleman's agreement they had, rather than DLH actually befuddling Hopkins early. I'm not a conspiracy theorist, I just think Hopkins was taking a couple rounds to feel DLH's strength and get used to his speed. Once he felt that DLH had nothing for him, then he just stepped it up and put it on him, which he could have done from the opening bell, let's face it.

With Winky, yeah, you may be right, but I think it was more a case of knowing Winky is an arm-puncher. He was probably a little surprised by Winky's agression, but he mainly knew that Winky is not going to stop you with one punch. Taylor can, or more importantly, Hopkins believed he could. The real question is- does Hopkins think Calzaghe can end or change the fight with one punch or flurry? If he doesn't, he's probably going to win a close fight, like he did with Winky (I thought that fight was a little closer than the judges had it). But if Joe can get him worrying about a big punch early, then he may be able to back him up and outwork him like Taylor did. But I just don't think Hopkins will allow himself to get outworked by Joe unless he's worried about catching a hard punch the wrong way. Hopkins knows who he's fighting and he knows how many punches per round he's going to see.

[warp1432]

We disagree on that one. You think that Hopkins was just being defensive for 8 rounds against Taylor because he didn't have the energy anymore? I know what a wary fighter looks like, and I can tell you that Hopkins was worried about getting caught and thought Taylor would gas out and fall off (which Taylor did, but he won enough rounds before he gassed, to win). Taylor was full of nervous energy, and throwing his haymakers. I honestly believe Hopkins had the energy to go an active 12 rounds and beat Taylor. He just didn't do it. I think that loss was a mental one, a miscalculation, not a sign of physical demise.

No it may have been mental, but at 40 years old it would be hard to make 160 pounds and keep a constant rate like that. I mean in the second fight, he already knew this time that he had the power to hurt Taylor and win rounds. If it had to be mental I think Bernard thought he had rounds in the bank and I don't blame him. Those two fights were close, which I personally scored for Hopkins, but I can see a case for Taylor.

Taylor can, or more importantly, Hopkins believed he could.

Ouma would like to disagree. I don't think it was really Hopkins was too cautious it was either A. He couldn't because he didn't have the energy anymore at 160 or B. he was over confident in thinking he was winning rounds.

[ИATAS]

We disagree on that one. You think that Hopkins was just being defensive for 8 rounds against Taylor because he didn't have the energy anymore? I know what a wary fighter looks like, and I can tell you that Hopkins was worried about getting caught and thought Taylor would gas out and fall off (which Taylor did, but he won enough rounds before he gassed, to win). Taylor was full of nervous energy, and throwing his haymakers. I honestly believe Hopkins had the energy to go an active 12 rounds and beat Taylor. He just didn't do it. I think that loss was a mental one, a miscalculation, not a sign of physical demise.

I agree with this too. I blame b-hop for this loss because he wasn't active enough (not that Taylor beat him, he just lost the fight himself), but his game plan did work just as you said, but he simply didn't pick up the pace early on enough. He was overly cautious and gave Jermaine too much credit (and remember taylor had a good KO ratio pre-hopkins so there was good reason).

B-hop is one of the rare active fighters that would benefit from a 15 round fight. I honestly believe Taylor would have been KO'd if that were the case, I mean he came close to going down at I believe the 10th or 11th.

Other than that, the main thing I disagree with you on is when you say Calzaghe would have beat Hopkins 5-6 years ago. No way, I don't see that at all - I think the 2001/Trinidad version of Hopkins was damn near unbeatable. But unfortunately we'll never know.

[BattlingNelson]

A lot of great posts in this thread.

In short I believe the yanks generally are seriously underestimating JoeC. I honestly dont think Hopkins will win more than a round or 2. Joe is a very special fighter. (I'm not welsh and I dont nuthug. Just a fight-fan).

[FRKO]

Hopkins is naturally a little bigger, and has had time to settle into 175 nicely, which is really a natural weight for him

I don't think Hopkins is naturally the bigger man at all. What weight does he walk around at? Joe's natural weight is approx. 196lbs. Joe is naturally closer to heavyweight than super middle.

Calzaghe by wide UD. That's the only way I see this fight going.

[GooGoo]

I haven't been too into the boards lately, or religiously watching as much boxing as I used to, for those of you who were around a few years ago know, but this is a fight that certainly intrigues me, as I've watched both of these guys fight for the past ten years at least. Here's how I see it, for those of you who are betting on it, points...money...whatever...

Now this fight is at least 7 years overdue, and I confess I said Hopkins would never take this fight, but he's finally found the stars aligning just right. Hopkins is naturally a little bigger, and has had time to settle into 175 nicely, which is really a natural weight for him, and I think Hopkins liked what he saw from Joe against Kessler. Joe didn't throw much with real power, used those big gloves, and seemed to have lost just a little and like I said, Hopkins thinks the time is right, finally. Hopkins doesn't take a fight unless he smells weakness, sees little danger, or thinks he has a big advantage of some kind. Hopkins isn't out to challenge himself or prove he's a warrior, or any of that macho stuff-- Hopkins fights for money and his legacy, and has for a long time now.

The key to winning for Joe is to watch the Taylor fights. Taylor's haymakers and Hopkins' overcautiousness won Taylor the fight. I saw someone try to compare Joe's power to Jermaine's in another thread, and ask if Joe punches harder. Yes, I think Joe's a little stronger than Jermaine, and yes if he sells out on a shot it's going to be harder than Taylor's punches, but Taylor sold out several times per early round, every round, against Hopkins in their first fight, and even though most of them missed or were blocked, they still won him the fights. Why? Because Hopkins fights very cautiously. He wanted no part of those punches, thought that Taylor would tire and miscalculated when to push the fight, once the steam came of Taylor's punches around the 7th-8th round (but it was too late by then).

Joe would be wise to learn from that. Hopkins is a physical specimen, and really has no weaknesses there, and his boxing game doesn't have many weaknesses either, except inactivity and overcautiousness. That is the way to beat him: mentally. Because Hopkins is a smart fighter, but not nearly as smart as he thinks he is. If Joe can get his respect early, put him on the defensive, and put a lot of cautiousness in Hopkins, then he wins. If he lets Hopkins get comfortable early, or isn't active or pushing Hopkins back, then he's in trouble.

If I were a betting man, I'd bet on Hopkins. Hopkins is going to be naturally a little bigger and stronger than Joe, and he's going to give Joe the ring I believe, and try to move back and counter. Joe is certainly there to be hit at times, and Hopkins is going to look for a big counter-right hand, probably around the middle rounds.

I believe if Joe uses those poofy gloves and tries to beat Hopkins with a swarm of light activity, as with Kessler, then I think he will lose and get overwhelmed by either a Hopkins swarm or a big counter in the mid-lates. Joe needs to use the tighter gloves he fought Lacy with, hands be damned, and needs to sell-out on some big shots early, esp on the inside. It doesn't matter if they miss or not, they will make Hopkins cautious and fearful of getting caught with a big punch. And then Joe could conceivably coast to victory just by keeping Hopkins off-balance and on the defensive. Hopkins doesn't listen to his corner, and doesn't really make adjustments, and if things get going the wrong way for Hopkins early, then he's in trouble. Hopkins always thinks he's right, and always thinks he's winning, and really only listens to Hopkins.

But I don't think Joe has that in him anymore. 10 years ago, five years ago, even three years ago, Joe beats Hopkins handily. But unlike many out there, I didn't like what I saw from Joe against Kessler. It was dominant and impressive, yes, but it doesn't add up to a victory against Hopkins. And I'm not sure if Joe can turn back the clock and wake that dragon again. He will need to, and will need to punch bigger and have better defense than he has shown lately in order to have a chance.

So, in the end, bet on Hopkins if you have to bet. Vegas just hasn't been good to the overseas fighters, and I think Joe has faded just enough for the move up in weight to work against him. Hopkins is just going to be stronger and more natural at 175.

It'll be fun to watch, either way.

Rick Reeno wants to hire you, now.