Hopkins-Calzaghe.... how I see it going...

[mECHsLAVE]

I haven't been too into the boards lately, or religiously watching as much boxing as I used to, for those of you who were around a few years ago know, but this is a fight that certainly intrigues me, as I've watched both of these guys fight for the past ten years at least. Here's how I see it, for those of you who are betting on it, points...money...whatever...

Now this fight is at least 7 years overdue, and I confess I said Hopkins would never take this fight, but he's finally found the stars aligning just right. Hopkins is naturally a little bigger, and has had time to settle into 175 nicely, which is really a natural weight for him, and I think Hopkins liked what he saw from Joe against Kessler. Joe didn't throw much with real power, used those big gloves, and seemed to have lost just a little and like I said, Hopkins thinks the time is right, finally. Hopkins doesn't take a fight unless he smells weakness, sees little danger, or thinks he has a big advantage of some kind. Hopkins isn't out to challenge himself or prove he's a warrior, or any of that macho stuff-- Hopkins fights for money and his legacy, and has for a long time now.

The key to winning for Joe is to watch the Taylor fights. Taylor's haymakers and Hopkins' overcautiousness won Taylor the fight. I saw someone try to compare Joe's power to Jermaine's in another thread, and ask if Joe punches harder. Yes, I think Joe's a little stronger than Jermaine, and yes if he sells out on a shot it's going to be harder than Taylor's punches, but Taylor sold out several times per early round, every round, against Hopkins in their first fight, and even though most of them missed or were blocked, they still won him the fights. Why? Because Hopkins fights very cautiously. He wanted no part of those punches, thought that Taylor would tire and miscalculated when to push the fight, once the steam came of Taylor's punches around the 7th-8th round (but it was too late by then).

Joe would be wise to learn from that. Hopkins is a physical specimen, and really has no weaknesses there, and his boxing game doesn't have many weaknesses either, except inactivity and overcautiousness. That is the way to beat him: mentally. Because Hopkins is a smart fighter, but not nearly as smart as he thinks he is. If Joe can get his respect early, put him on the defensive, and put a lot of cautiousness in Hopkins, then he wins. If he lets Hopkins get comfortable early, or isn't active or pushing Hopkins back, then he's in trouble.

If I were a betting man, I'd bet on Hopkins. Hopkins is going to be naturally a little bigger and stronger than Joe, and he's going to give Joe the ring I believe, and try to move back and counter. Joe is certainly there to be hit at times, and Hopkins is going to look for a big counter-right hand, probably around the middle rounds.

I believe if Joe uses those poofy gloves and tries to beat Hopkins with a swarm of light activity, as with Kessler, then I think he will lose and get overwhelmed by either a Hopkins swarm or a big counter in the mid-lates. Joe needs to use the tighter gloves he fought Lacy with, hands be damned, and needs to sell-out on some big shots early, esp on the inside. It doesn't matter if they miss or not, they will make Hopkins cautious and fearful of getting caught with a big punch. And then Joe could conceivably coast to victory just by keeping Hopkins off-balance and on the defensive. Hopkins doesn't listen to his corner, and doesn't really make adjustments, and if things get going the wrong way for Hopkins early, then he's in trouble. Hopkins always thinks he's right, and always thinks he's winning, and really only listens to Hopkins.

But I don't think Joe has that in him anymore. 10 years ago, five years ago, even three years ago, Joe beats Hopkins handily. But unlike many out there, I didn't like what I saw from Joe against Kessler. It was dominant and impressive, yes, but it doesn't add up to a victory against Hopkins. And I'm not sure if Joe can turn back the clock and wake that dragon again. He will need to, and will need to punch bigger and have better defense than he has shown lately in order to have a chance.

So, in the end, bet on Hopkins if you have to bet. Vegas just hasn't been good to the overseas fighters, and I think Joe has faded just enough for the move up in weight to work against him. Hopkins is just going to be stronger and more natural at 175.

It'll be fun to watch, either way.

[Jim Jeffries]

Maybe Bernard liked what he saw in Calzaghe/Kessler, but only because he thinks Kessler is a bum. He is wrong.

[ИATAS]

Good post, very interesting indeed

[Silencers]

Interesting analysis. I agree that Calzaghe's key to winning is to make Hopkins overly defensive and he has to do that by being active, workrate will be his best weapon in this fight, but when he opens up, he has to remember not to let his left hand drop like he does sometimes because Hopkins can really hurt him with counter right hands.

I don't really think Hopkins will be much stronger than Calzaghe at 175 though, Calzaghe has had some trouble making 168 for a while so his body should feel stronger at 175. I didn't see much fading in the Kessler fight so I think he will be OK.

I think Calzaghe will win a tough decision, but I never count Hopkins out and wouldn't be surprised at all if he wins.

[Xyei]

Good break down.

You make me want to watch this fight even more now!

[Mugwump]

Hopkins doesn't listen to his corner, and doesn't really make adjustments, and if things get going the wrong way for Hopkins early, then he's in trouble.

This is a good point, which kind of makes me wonder why he's assembled this "Dream Team" of trainers.

[kayjay]

Good post.

I agree Joe needs to "sell out" on some punches. I think when Hopkins moves back and right, and when he ducks down too low (which he does illegally in every fight, btw.) Joe's hands will be in 'Nard's face. I think Joe will surprise everyone with an early KD and then dominate the fight to a ten-point decision.

But I will be nervous, as there are too many variables.


It's the last thirty seconds of every round that will count. After all kinds of hugging and infighting, look for Joe to flurry to finish off every stanza

[Jim Jeffries]

Interesting analysis. I agree that Calzaghe's key to winning is to make Hopkins overly defensive and he has to do that by being active, workrate will be his best weapon in this fight, but when he opens up, he has to remember not to let his left hand drop like he does sometimes because Hopkins can really hurt him with counter right hands.

I don't really think Hopkins will be much stronger than Calzaghe at 175 though, Calzaghe has had some trouble making 168 for a while so his body should feel stronger at 175. I didn't see much fading in the Kessler fight so I think he will be OK.

I think Calzaghe will win a tough decision, but I never count Hopkins out and wouldn't be surprised at all if he wins.

Me either, people are always quick to bring up Hopkins' age, but Archie Moore won the LHW title at 45, Foreman was almost 46 when he stopped Moorer, and almost 49 when I thought he beat a prime Shannon Briggs. Hopkins has alway been in phenominal shape and looked very good in his last two fights. I just hope whoever wins this gets their due credit.

[mECHsLAVE]

Me either, people are always quick to bring up Hopkins' age, but Archie Moore won the LHW title at 45, Foreman was almost 46 when he stopped Moorer, and almost 49 when I thought he beat a prime Shannon Briggs. Hopkins has alway been in phenominal shape and looked very good in his last two fights. I just hope whoever wins this gets their due credit.

Hopkins' age is irrelevant. It looks to me like Joe has slowed more than Hopkins has, actually. Everyone gets hung up on age as numbers. "Age" as determined in boxing terms is a formula which includes age as a number, but factors in how much punishment a fighter has taken, how they fight, how they train, how they spar, how hard of an amateur career they had, and just genetically how age has affected them.

Hopkins has been partly genetically lucky not to have fallen off, and partly because he protects himself very well and hasn't been in but a few fights where he's taken punishment, and not one of those in a long time. I mean, Vargas is what---30? And the guy has been done for years. Other fighters haven't even gotten their careers good and started until they turn 30. Age is not a number in boxing. It's a lot more than that.

Both Hopkins and Calzaghe are past the "Best if Used By" expiration date by conventional boxing standards, but both have still proven to be on top and either should absolutely get their due credit for a win.

[Sweet Peacock]

I haven't been too into the boards lately, or religiously watching as much boxing as I used to, for those of you who were around a few years ago know, but this is a fight that certainly intrigues me, as I've watched both of these guys fight for the past ten years at least. Here's how I see it, for those of you who are betting on it, points...money...whatever...

Now this fight is at least 7 years overdue, and I confess I said Hopkins would never take this fight, but he's finally found the stars aligning just right. Hopkins is naturally a little bigger, and has had time to settle into 175 nicely, which is really a natural weight for him, and I think Hopkins liked what he saw from Joe against Kessler. Joe didn't throw much with real power, used those big gloves, and seemed to have lost just a little and like I said, Hopkins thinks the time is right, finally. Hopkins doesn't take a fight unless he smells weakness, sees little danger, or thinks he has a big advantage of some kind. Hopkins isn't out to challenge himself or prove he's a warrior, or any of that macho stuff-- Hopkins fights for money and his legacy, and has for a long time now.

The key to winning for Joe is to watch the Taylor fights. Taylor's haymakers and Hopkins' overcautiousness won Taylor the fight. I saw someone try to compare Joe's power to Jermaine's in another thread, and ask if Joe punches harder. Yes, I think Joe's a little stronger than Jermaine, and yes if he sells out on a shot it's going to be harder than Taylor's punches, but Taylor sold out several times per early round, every round, against Hopkins in their first fight, and even though most of them missed or were blocked, they still won him the fights. Why? Because Hopkins fights very cautiously. He wanted no part of those punches, thought that Taylor would tire and miscalculated when to push the fight, once the steam came of Taylor's punches around the 7th-8th round (but it was too late by then).

Joe would be wise to learn from that. Hopkins is a physical specimen, and really has no weaknesses there, and his boxing game doesn't have many weaknesses either, except inactivity and overcautiousness. That is the way to beat him: mentally. Because Hopkins is a smart fighter, but not nearly as smart as he thinks he is. If Joe can get his respect early, put him on the defensive, and put a lot of cautiousness in Hopkins, then he wins. If he lets Hopkins get comfortable early, or isn't active or pushing Hopkins back, then he's in trouble.

If I were a betting man, I'd bet on Hopkins. Hopkins is going to be naturally a little bigger and stronger than Joe, and he's going to give Joe the ring I believe, and try to move back and counter. Joe is certainly there to be hit at times, and Hopkins is going to look for a big counter-right hand, probably around the middle rounds.

I believe if Joe uses those poofy gloves and tries to beat Hopkins with a swarm of light activity, as with Kessler, then I think he will lose and get overwhelmed by either a Hopkins swarm or a big counter in the mid-lates. Joe needs to use the tighter gloves he fought Lacy with, hands be damned, and needs to sell-out on some big shots early, esp on the inside. It doesn't matter if they miss or not, they will make Hopkins cautious and fearful of getting caught with a big punch. And then Joe could conceivably coast to victory just by keeping Hopkins off-balance and on the defensive. Hopkins doesn't listen to his corner, and doesn't really make adjustments, and if things get going the wrong way for Hopkins early, then he's in trouble. Hopkins always thinks he's right, and always thinks he's winning, and really only listens to Hopkins.

But I don't think Joe has that in him anymore. 10 years ago, five years ago, even three years ago, Joe beats Hopkins handily. But unlike many out there, I didn't like what I saw from Joe against Kessler. It was dominant and impressive, yes, but it doesn't add up to a victory against Hopkins. And I'm not sure if Joe can turn back the clock and wake that dragon again. He will need to, and will need to punch bigger and have better defense than he has shown lately in order to have a chance.

So, in the end, bet on Hopkins if you have to bet. Vegas just hasn't been good to the overseas fighters, and I think Joe has faded just enough for the move up in weight to work against him. Hopkins is just going to be stronger and more natural at 175.

It'll be fun to watch, either way.

Great annalists. I see the fight going the same say. Calzaghe admitted that he looks better fighting come forward/pressure fighters instead of layed back tactical fighters



Sweet