CompuBox Post Analysis: Marquez-Pacquiao

[Flab]

Yeah even with the 3 knockdowns...I had Marquez winning that round.....

9-6 pacman.

[badboypeenoy]

Though Marquez threw 108 fewer punches (619-511), he landed 15 more (172-157) overall, and the 34-year-old Mexican also amassed a 16-punch edge in power connects (130-114) while throwing just five more (310-305). The only category Pacquiao out-did Marquez was in connected jabs (43-42), but the challenger had to throw 113 more of them (314-201) to do so.

I think based on these numbers, we could already have an idea who the "busier/more active" fighter was.

Just like the action inside the ring, the advantage in terms of overall connects swung from round to round. Pacquiao connected with more blows in the first (12-6), fourth (19-14), sixth (16-15), ninth (13-12), 10th (17-15) and 11th (16-12) while Marquez earned edges in the second (18-9), fifth (12-10), seventh (15-12), eighth (21-5) and 12th (19-15). As one can see, Pacquiao won his rounds by a combined 19 landed punches (an average advantage of 3.17 punches per round) while Marquez won his by a combined 34 (an average advantage of 6.8 per round). That means – from a statistical point of view – that Marquez won his rounds bigger than Pacquiao did his. Because judges base their decisions on clean punching and damage inflicted Marquez would have won those arguments from a purely numerical standpoint.

This analysis is a bit misleading, since the "6.8 punches per round" for Marquez includes the 8th round where Marquez outpunched Pacquiao, who was bothered by a cut, 21 to 5. Look at it at a purely round-by-round basis and you'll see that both fighters never eadged each other after the 2nd round by more than 5 punches.

Speaking of damage done, if one broke down solely the power connect totals Marquez would have emerged with the 6-5-1 edge. Marquez won the second (12-9), fifth (10-4), sixth (14-13), seventh (12-8), eighth (15-5) and 12th rounds (15-10) while Pacquiao captured the first (8-4), third (9-7), fourth (13-9), ninth (11-9) and 11th rounds (11-10) while the 10th round was even at 13.

Marquez won his rounds by a combined 29 connects (an average advantage of 4.83 connects per round) while Pacquiao amassed a 13-punch advantage over his five rounds (a 2.6 punch per round edge).

This is also tricky and misleading since compubox cannot and does not measure impact of a powershot. JMM might have landed more powershots but which powershots do you think had more sting? The counterpuncher's or the KO artist's? Who would know right? A good example would be round 10 where they were even...who do you think got "rocked" more in that round?