Adamek-Dawson... Chavez-Diaz... Predictions?

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  • ICEMAN JOHN SCULLY
    Undisputed Champion
    Super Champion - 5,000-10,000 posts
    • Apr 2005
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    #21
    THIS IS MY PREVIEW THAT will appear on www. ....the.... fight.... network... dot... com... tomorrow.....

    (UNEDITED) The upcoming Chad Dawson-Tomas Adamek fight is one of the most intriguing, if not one of the most high-profile fights of the year. I mean, how often do you have a powerful up and coming title holder (Adamek) who is looking to establish himself as a legitimate world champion and television star taking on a young, sharp, tall, fast, combination punching southpaw (Dawson) who is considered by some to be the next big thing in the division? Not very often,that's for sure, so you have to give Adamek all the credit for taking this fight because you could scroll down the world rankings and pick out several guys who are even more well known than Chad at this point but who present less of a stylistic problem. I kind of liken this situation to young IBF champion Frank Tate, with a gold medal as an amateur under his belt, taking on then-up and coming Michael Nunn before Nunn became a superstar but well after those in the know knew that there was a good chance he would become one. It was a risky move for Tate back then (that proved to be an ill-timid one) but he proved himself in a sense by not choosing the easier road when he certainly could have. Is Adamek making a similar mistake against a coincidentally similar fighter this time? We'll see, soon enough.

    One thing that could be in his favor is that Adamek is a tall (although not quite as tall as Chad) fighter who throws a lot of punches. He also has a good jab, although it might not be as good of a jab that Chad possesses (And don't let anyone tell you differently. I trained Chad for a while not all that long ago and even he will admit now that I gave him a much better jab than he ever had). Chad's jab, I think, will be one of the big keys to this fight. Everybody that follows boxing even a little bit knows that the jab is the most important weapon in the sport and in the case of a guy like Dawson it is even more so true because Chad has the potential to have one of the best jabs in boxing bar none. I know first hand because we used to spar against each other quite a bit and while i always thought he had a good jab I felt he didn't use it properly or enough and once I started training him I went to work diligently on giving him what I called "a Tommy Hearns-Larry Holmes type of jab," the type of jab that can win rounds and fights.

    After we got together as trainer-boxer we went to work on it and it was never better than in his first real test as a pro, his ten round fight against former WBA 154 pound champion Carl Daniels. I implemented a strategy for that fight that I think Chad could use for this one with great success. My theory is this no matter what great weapons a boxer has in his arsenal, when matched up with a long and powerful jab they become obsolete. Daniels obviously had a great deal more amateur and pro experience than Chad did and he would certainly be looking to use them to full effect. The fight came, though, and it went exactly like this. I told Chad to come out and only worry about the first round. Just win the first round and we'll see what to do after that. Win it with your jab, stay out of his range, don't get hit. Only used the jab and a left hand here and there if you absolutely need it."

    Chad goes out and wins the first round very easily without getting touched. He comes back go the corner. I tell him "OK, let me see you do the same exact thing for one more round." He does it again with great effect and Daniels despite his experience finds it very hard to get through the jab and, if he does, the straight left hand that awaits him.

    We repeat this scenario for eight more rounds with the same results. I tell Chad in the corner "Let him adjust to you, not the other way around. If he doesn't do anything differently then you don't either. We don't have to be exciting, we just have to win. Keep doing what you're doing." He does and we win by a late round stoppage (on the stool).

    I honestly believe that if Chad took that very simple approach to all of his fights he would be very, very hard to beat. The guy is a six-foot three, has great boxing ability, slip punches well (he is what we call "slippery") and lets his hands go with great fluidity. And, of course, he has a very powerful, jolting right jab that can keep his man off balance and on the outside.

    Man to man I see Chad out boxing this guy cleanly.

    There are, however, intangibles, that make boxing what it is. A sometimes very unpredictable sport. There are many questions that have to be answered before a winner is decided.

    Like, for example, will Chad Dawson feel like he has to live up to all the hype that surrounds him and win with a big knockout rather than a boring decision?

    Prove that he can win in a dog fight?

    Will the hype of Showtime's cameras and the presence of Don King overwhelm him?

    Will he feel he has to prove that he himself can punch as hard as the champion?

    Will his working for the first time with Floyd Mayweather Sr. cause him to try and use a style (that now famous Mayweather style) that ultimately doesn't suit him?

    And maybe the biggest question of all might get answered on Saturday and decide the fight.

    Can Chad Dawson take a punch?

    Now, the champion Adamek is a strong guy who also wants to impress greatly. He has shown to be tough, quick handed, and strong. he can obviously fight all night because he has the conditioning to do so. Because Chad didn't fight Eric Harding when he was in his prime I will have to say that all intangibles considered this fight represents his toughest task to date. My take on the outcome? I put it like this:

    If Chad is a real professional he will not worry about what the critics and fans think and he will not buy into all that hype that surrounds him because he will know that despite what people say about you it is always a thing where you still have to go out and do the things they say you can do. Dog fight? Who cares, really? Skills almost always overcome toughness. Don't prove you are tough, prove you are, in fact, highly skilled and in the long run you will be fine. It is also true that a real professional could see Elvis Presley suddenly walk in and sit down at ringside and it wouldn't distract him. He will know also that fights aren't always decided by the power of your punch (right, Muhammad Ali??). As far as Mayweather's influence I definitely do not think Chad should try and go with any different style than his own. Not everybody is cut out for the shoulder rolling style and even if he is they haven't spent enough time together in my opinion for him to perfect such a style. Even if he wanted to I would have to assume that Chad will revert to his usual style, especially if things suddenly aren't going the way he likes (Go back to what you know, they always do).

    So I suppose, assuming Chad stays calm and focused and fights his fight, the battle for the WBC championship of the world will come down to whether he can take a solid punch from a hard punching opponent. Can he?

    I don't know, in the grand scheme of things because while I think he can it's a thing where you never know until the bomb actually drops, right? He did get dropped a couple of times as an amateur, when he was a teenager, and he has been down for a couple of flash knockdowns as a pro, too, but never has he been knocked out. So far he has boxed well enough as a professional to not have to find out for sure and I think that if he stays with that plan this time, if he can stay focused and is in top physical condition, he won't have to find out this time, either.

    If Chad boxes behind his beautiful jab I will go with him to win. If he strays from that for any reason (mental pressure of trying to impress the world on such a big stage) then he will set himself up to be worn down and lose.

    After all the input and predictions and thought that goes into picking the winners in all big fights, sometimes boxing is as simple as that.

    ICE

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    • PATO 1
      ...........
      Platinum Champion - 1,000-5,000 posts
      • Jun 2006
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      #22
      whos in chads corner for this fight

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      • RAESAAD
        THE MUTHA****IN TRUTH
        Franchise Champion - 20,000+ posts
        • Jul 2005
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        #23
        I was seriously waiting for your take on this.........thanks and good article.I am a big Dawson supporter.

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        • .::|ULTIMATE|::.
          Gran Campeon
          Super Champion - 5,000-10,000 posts
          • May 2004
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          #24
          Diaz by TKO.

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          • ferocity
            NOV. 3, NEW CHAMPION
            Unified Champion - 10,00-20,000 posts
            • Feb 2006
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            #25
            Originally posted by .::|ULTIMATE|::.
            Diaz by TKO.
            I really like Diaz, his brother had a great fighting style and i've followed Diaz for a few years now and at the same time when i could i've followed Chavez, and though i belive Diaz will win, i just don't think he will get a tko. No way. Mayweather hit him with mad bombs and couldn't even make a dent, his corner stopped it cause Chavez was just taking too many punchs though he was winning, if not winning Chavez was even with Mayweather at the time of the stoppage. Diaz has his hands full but its a winable fight.

            The Diaz domination shall be complete!
            [IMG]http://i88.***********.com/albums/k170/ferocity_2006/diaz.jpg[/IMG]

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            • woftam
              Amateur
              Interim Champion - 1-100 posts
              • Apr 2005
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              #26
              Adamek - UD
              Chavez - SD

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              • oldgringo
                Ellis
                Unified Champion - 10,00-20,000 posts
                • Jul 2004
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                #27
                Originally posted by oldgringo
                I think we'll see Dawson really rise up as a star after this fight. He's already beaten Daniels, Gardner and Harding...enough to convince me he has the skill level to take out Adamek.

                Adamek is a damned good fighter himself, but he'll find Dawson quicker and craftier than Briggs.
                It's really too bad that Chavez injured his knee. I think he would have slowly pecked at Diaz until he finally hurt him late in the fight. Chavez was landing some good right hands, but Diaz was controlling the pace throughout.

                Dawson on the other hand was every bit as good as I thought he would be. I wasn't rooting for one guy over the other as I like both fighters quite a bit. Adamek will be back, he just needs to learn how to adapt to quicker fighters like Chad. Great fight though with good drama when Adamek landed that crisp right. Chad Dawson is a complete package...he just got overconfident late.

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