Can he have any success from fighting from the outside against the bigger man or would he have to go inside ? Or he doesn’t have to change a thing to defeat Tyson Fury
Interesting that you say there's no chance of KOing Fury, but he could KO the man he fought for 24 rounds without so much as knocking him down.
I didn't actually say that. I only said he was not trying to push for a KO even when he clearly had AJ hurt (hanging in the ropes) at the end of the first fight. Would he have been able to finish/KO AJ with an additional 20-30 sec? We'll never know.
I don't think there is any danger of Usyk not being patient, since it's the only way he can win. He knows of course that, contrary to AJ, there is no realistic chance he can KO Fury. And even with AJ he was very patient, and didn't try to push for a KO (though he was close to getting a KD at the end of the first fight).
Still, there is an enormous size/weight/reach advantage for Fury. I am not sure Usyk can overcome that. If I had to bet, my money would be on Fury.
Interesting that you say there's no chance of KOing Fury, but he could KO the man he fought for 24 rounds without so much as knocking him down.
Manage the pace of the fight and the distance.
Usyk needs to either be at his mid range or totally on the outside, I would not advise fighting up close, Usyk is not a tough inside brawler, and if he's not at mid range he needs to be beyond Fury's long range.
In terms of manage the pace, avoid taking damage early and make fury miss, if he does this early on even if he's not won the round it's still a pretty good investment round.
If he can get fury tired and slow on his feet then holding mid range will be a lot easier and he can take the fight.
If he fights on the inside I expect he gets crushed, Usyk has never really shown anything to make me think he can batter a man of Fury's size in a phone booth and Fury is a proven inside fighter which nobody at heavyweight Usyk has ever fought has been, well except for Chisora for 2 rounds.
Usyk's movement is elite. Fury's is 'good for a big man'.
Just keep moving. I don't think he'll have any issue creating angles and openings to land. The key is being patient and not getting caught in a position where Fury can maul him.
I don't think there is any danger of Usyk not being patient, since it's the only way he can win. He knows of course that, contrary to AJ, there is no realistic chance he can KO Fury. And even with AJ he was very patient, and didn't try to push for a KO (though he was close to getting a KD at the end of the first fight).
Still, there is an enormous size/weight/reach advantage for Fury. I am not sure Usyk can overcome that. If I had to bet, my money would be on Fury.
Usyk's movement is elite. Fury's is 'good for a big man'.
Just keep moving. I don't think he'll have any issue creating angles and openings to land. The key is being patient and not getting caught in a position where Fury can maul him.
He wants to be in his range, and not let Fury control the fight with jabs from the outside. If he can impose his fight on Fury, he'll have good success. It's a huge reach disadvantage: something like 7".
His first task is to get to the inside and nullify the jab. Loma and Usyk often do this by jabbing over the opponent's lazy jab, or doing a split entry. But with a 6" height disadvantage, the former is harder than usual. He's likely going to have to do body work, but if he's actually weak to the body like the haters claim, he might not want to remind Fury about the body work.
If Fury comes in heavy, he'll likely gas a bit after 4-5 rounds, but Fury looks to be in fine shape and I don't think there's any VADA for this fight. So Usyk can't let Fury bank too many early rounds.
If I were in his corner, I'd be urging him to work on clinch tactics, so Fury can't do his usual weight draping. Watch how Loma fought Masayoshi Nakatani for some examples. If he's constantly either pushing Fury onto his heels and turning his head, or dropping his own weight onto Fury's biceps trying to pull out of clinches, Fury won't be able to rest. If it turns into a conditioning battle, the lighter points fighter will have a more even playing field.
I don't think Usyk will change much. He's got to win on points. If he can't get inside effectively by rd 5 at least, he's going to lose the fight. If he can, then it's a battle of conditioning and adjustments. Fury has all the advantages here though. Judges will almost certainly be biased in his favor, and he's way more likely to win by TKO. The one wild card is if Usyk can open that cut again though.
I think Usyk has to figure a way to get inside Fury. He should look at how Holyfield beat Tyson. If you push someone at a certain angle, watch their balance topple. Holy did this to Tyson. Usyk has to get inside and push tyson off balance and attack from there. He has his work cut out for him... not easy to do against a guy who has so much reach.