Lomachenko is an extremely dangerous fight for Haney. Here's why.

The broad consensus is that Haney is a big favorite over Lomachenko. And on paper, it makes sense. Young undisputed champion against an older fighter in his third weight class. The view seems to be that Haney will jab Lomachenko, control the distance, and frustrate him. But I think we need to take a closer look at things. Lomachenko: In his last fight, he fought Jamaine Ortiz. Ortiz had his moments, particularly early and in the 7th, but Lomachenko won a clear decision roughly 8-4 or 9-3. Here's the thing about Ortiz though. He fights at a very fast pace and moves all over the ring. Haney doesn't throw the combinations that Ortiz used to keep Lomachenko's hands at home and doesn't move as much. And Lomachenko won't be coming out of a literal warzone. We also can't forget that Ortiz was in training camp with Lomachenko for the Commey fight. Ortiz had already seen Lomachenko in the ring over countless rounds of sparring. So Ortiz had a familiarity that Haney won't. Haney: I know Haney has developed a reputation as this master defensive boxer and counterpuncher. But just three fights ago, he fought JoJo Diaz. With all due respect to Diaz, he's slow, weak punching, and hasn't a tenth Lomachenko's technical skills. Yet Diaz landed clean left hands on Haney's chin throughout the fight, as well as hard hooks to the body. Whenever Diaz got close, Haney either held or got hammered. Haney is extremely hittable in mid and close range. Here are the timestamps in the video for what I am talking about. Observe how easily Diaz counters Haney's jab with a left hand. 277s, 7m43s And here we see Haney backing straight away and letting Diaz catch him with a left hook. 5m28s This is not good defense. 8m43s And finally, look at how easily Diaz hits Haney in close. 10m35s​ Haney is massive, yes, but it's possible that the weight cut is hurting his chin and stamina. He never recovered after Linares hurt him in the 10th and while I don't know if he was hurt, he definitely looked bothered by Diaz, who couldn't punch at 126. And he was very tired towards the end of that fight, despite Diaz going long stretches without doing much of anything. And we know that Haney is not a puncher. He couldn't hurt the shell of Gamboa. I suppose the question I have is: How is the fighter who was repeatedly caught by JoJo Diaz, who couldn't keep Diaz off, supposed to avoid Lomachenko's pressure? Maybe Haney has improved since the Diaz fights but the Kambosos fights don't tell us much because Kambosos fights nothing like Lomachenko. Maybe Haney actually attacks Lomachenko, but that carries its own risks. Recklessly attack him with the jab and he's liable to slip and counter with a left. Youth would matter more if Haney fought with the pace of a younger fighter. But he doesn't. Don't get me wrong: Haney can win this fight. But I don't see how the Haney who fought Diaz can be justifiably favored over Lomachenko.