Usyk vs. Joshua II - NOT CLOSE!!!!
Having rewatched this one now, I have made a few takeaways, but here’s the TLDR version: Usyk wasn’t in trouble ONCE, but there is also NOTHING AJ could have done to get him into trouble.
I support both conclusions using a summarised recap of the match divided into phases, as follows:
1. Both were predominantly centre of the ring in the first 2 rounds, and Joshua kept a tighter guard, moved his head and feet well and didn’t look completely out of his depth, but Usyk still landed some shots on him with movement predominantly limited to feints and sidesteps within a relatively small area.
The minor problem for Usyk at this stage was that he likes to counterpunch, and AJ was affording few opportunities for this while having his own success counterpunching. Ofc, Usyk has IQ to spare, so this wasn’t an issue for him, as we see next.
2. By round 3, Usyk got AJ to open up more by taking his range of movement wider and further: more lateral movements, but also back steps and enacted within a far larger area of the ring. This begun, or accelerated the process of wearing Joshua out physically and mentally by:
(a) forcing him to chase Usyk outside of the centre of the ring
(b) slightly panicking AJ into firing shots that were bound to miss; even more so has he begun to wear out, leading to point…
(c) Usyk had created more openings for himself to counterpunch, which he did very successfully.
3. As this phase, round 3-8, progressed, Usyk had started to slow down as AJ had some moderate success landing body shots throughout the fight, which, IMO, was the latter’s plan all along in order to initiate a late assault (which I go into at point 4).
The problem is that Usyk’s adjustment had resulted in AJ himself slowing down, and at arguably a greater rate. As a consequence, Usyk still had a relative surplus in stamina, and we see that, contrary to all the advocations that AJ should simply chase and bully him, Usyk took this option well outside of AJ’s range of choices by taking his legs out of the equation, meanwhile, still asking him questions with his movement and feints to make him mentally process at a rate beyond his (and most boxers’) comfort zone.
Both these points are accumulatively proved with AJ’s jab and straight right getting noticeably less potent during rounds 3-8, and Usyk having far more success has a result of Joshua slowly becoming more stationary while Usyk remains elusive, though less so as rounds 3-8 progressed.
Either way, this elusiveness was a factor, along with the others I mentioned, in AJ’s gameplay failing, as we see next point.
4. As a result of Usyk’s round 3 adjustment undermining the AJ plan to bodyshot from a tight guard, and move his head and feet out of the way of counter-assaults, AJ’s round 9 crescendo falls flat on a rewatch.
If anyone looks again, you’ll see that, yes, AJ mixes up his attack well with a variety of body and head shots, he’s cutting the ring off effectively and Usyk is caught off-guard, and off-balance, but Usyk’s legs remain firm throughout. He never betrays signs of neurological damage as evident in involuntary bodily convulsions or any such thing.
Ofc, he’s clearly lost the round, and AJ has banked a vital one by upping the activity level, but that’s all that’s happened. And simply winning the round was never the plan, as proved by Garcia’s stating that you cannot outbox Usyk.
The plan was to take him out late, and as the next phase further reinforces, this assault, an admirable attempt, and possibly a successful one had Usyk not adjusted in round 3, actually backfired on Joshua, with Usyk sensing his opportunity for another adjustment.
5. Basically, at this point, Usyk’s not hurt, I theorise ultimately because of his round 3 adjustment, and he’s not stupid, either. He knows that AJ can’t sustain the pace of his round 9 attack; few boxers, and even fewer HWs can. What’s more, Usyk had already been slow burning Joshua’s physical and emotional energy by making him fight his fight in areas he wanted between rounds 3-8, while making AJ open up and miss; itself, very tiring.
Hence, Joshua has little left.
So Usyk’s next adjustment is less complex and will help Usyk on the scorecards against the home fighter: punch him a LOT. Usyk stood in the pocket and unloaded, safe in the knowledge that not a lot was coming back from a worn out AJ at this point. We see Usyk utilising less range here than at any point previous in the fight. Partly because he’s tired himself, but also because he needs the round, just in case.
Throughout the course of round 10, AJ’s only real answer were a couple of solid shots around the middle of the stanza. Not enough, by this point he’s cooked, and those shots were more or less his final successes, and this final phase of the fight arguably serves as riposte to those who said Joshua should have fought as he did in round 9 all fight. Usyk’s too intelligent.
In summary, faced with a smarter and more circumspect Joshua, Usyk opened the fight up in round 3 by getting AJ to chase him with his legs, his hands and his mind.
Fighting like this destabilised the Garcia/ AJ strategy to wear Usyk down for the late finish, simply because (i) Usyk became increasingly difficult to regularly tag cleanly until round 8 and (ii) because AJ’s resources were diminishing at a grander rate; both meaning that AJ’s last flurry, which would have been the perfect ending to a well-thought out plan vs. a lesser boxer, became a desperate, do-or-die attempt against a guy like Usyk that, for the reasons outlined above, failed to greatly affect him.
Equally, however, rounds 10-12 proved why fighting as he did in round 9 from the start would have been foolhardy for AJ in the extreme. Not only is it unsustainable for any HW, Usyk adapts, and quickly. Therefore, I not only argue that Usyk was in full control, I also assert that there was no route to victory for AJ.
![Rico Verhoeven [right] clouts Oleksandr Usyk in Egypt on May 23, 2026](https://photo.boxingscene.com/uploads/Oleksandr-Usyk-Rico-Verhoeven-20.webp)
