NSB Pick Em 2022 MASTERTHREAD

Okay gentlemen, here we are again... the start (well almost the start) of another year of the NSB PIck Em. This'll be the 6th year since the Pick Em was started by BroBob and the fifth year since the running of this two bit operation was taken over by the dedicated enthusiasts of the PICK EM CREW including yours truly. Little did I know at the time I'd still be doing this 4 years later... probably I wouldn't have been quite so keen if I'd consulted my crystal ball before I jumped in to fill the breach.. So... judging by the first few Pick Ems of 2022 most of you will be fully aware of what the Pick Em is all about and roughly how it works, we've seen a few new players joining in but most of you have seen it all before, nonetheless I'm just gonna waffle on a little for the sake of any new players or of course prospective players who might be interested in joining in. Lotta the following is simply cut'n'pasted from the 2021 masterthread so if you're thinking you maybe saw it before then yes, you probably did... :lol1: So what is the PICK EM? In it's essence it's a prediction league. A year long competition where every week or two we put our knowledge to the test by predicting the outcomes of one or more boxing matches, and score points based upon the accuracy of our predictions. We accumulate the points and over time we come to see which of us are best able to reliably predict fights and those people go on to achieve eternal glory and bragging rights in the NSB PICK EM Hall of Fame (under construction)... oh... and possibly win a few $100 too... The NSB Pick Em's been running since 2017 when legendary 2017 POTY BrometheusBob decided to purloin the concept from a rival website - for which we will all be eternally thankful (cheers Bob :beerchug:), but in early 2018 was taken over by a loose team of enthusiastic players - the self described PICK EM CREW - dedicated to keeping it running after real life compelled Bob to pay some attention to it. At this point it moved away from the original polled concept to the more labout intensive post-a-pick method that's till used today in order to keep the number of casual players to a managable number. The 2022 CREW is gonna remain the same as the final 2021 CREW, namely Citizen Koba (that'd be yours truly) from the UK andNC Uppercut from where it says on the tin, both veteran CREW who were joined last year by asgarth (UK) and Mammoth (US) mainly as a scheduling consultant after some of the original CREW dropped out. You can ask any of us for help, advice or clarifications and mostly - asuming we're in a good mood - we'll be only too pleased to help you out. Additional support - and jovial banter can be found talking to Tatabanya and YoungManRumble two of the Pick Ems most dedicated and friendly hangers on who know the rules as well as anyone and are both likely to get shanghaied into the CREW at some point in the not too distant future... probably kicking and screaming.:lol1: The game is open to all posters regardless of join date, post count or likes, is hopefully simple enough to pick up and for most of us at least adds an extra bit of fun to the fights as well. Maybe it even helps us to test and improve our knowledge of the sweet science and the men who put their health on the line, week in, week out, for our entertainment. Details on how to make your picks are laid out below and will also be repeated in each Pick 'em thread throughout the year, but essentially follows the format of choosing Winner, method (KO or DEC) and detail ie how close a dec is or when a KO will happen. For those familiar with the game from previous years there is only one major rules change from 2021 and a minor supplimental change that has little direct bearing on play. In previous years we have had more pre-season discussion to get player input on any riules changes or other difference players would like to see but we didn't this year and I take responsibility for that... combination of a lack of time, alack of motivation and the quick turnaround between the last fight of 2021 on the 31st Decemebr and the first fight of the 2022 season on the 1st of January. Either way apologies. I like to give the players the opportunity to have some imput and I didn't really ensure that opportunity was there this year, although as ever we like to invite constructive criticism and new ideas at all times... seriously gents, don't wait to be asked. If you got an idea you think will improve the game then make yourself heard. Firstly - and most significantly - following an in depth statistical analysis of last years results (I ran up a stick tally..) it was decided to adjust the thrreshold for DECISON picks to ensure a more even spread between the 3 categories over the course of the year. In 2021 the Decison categories were CLOSE (0-6) CLEAR (7-18) and WIDE (19+). This has been changed to CLOSE (0-9) CLEAR (10-18) and WIDE (19+). Hopefully this should redcue the likelihhod and benefits of players who are unsure on a decison pick simply defaulting to CLEAR as the statistically most probable outcome. Based on the 2021 results now CLOSE and CLEAR should occur with approximately equal frequency with WIDE being just very slightly less common. The second, and less significant change is the decison to change the standard reference for bout odds from oddschecker.com to proboxingodds.com for a variety of reason, but mostly because they cover more fights and also include detals of how the odds have changed over time so in the evnt that we;re late putting up the odds for whatever reason we should be able to track back to find the odds on the Tuesday before the fight which is a standardised timepoint. Despite some expressed concerns over play balance we've kept in the x5 multiplier for this year and kept the number available at 3 for the entire year... I had initially been thinking about dropping it down to 2 but since we're already amonth in and some x5s have already been used it seems a bit late to change the expected rules at this point. Once again that's entirely my fault for taking so long to getting this masterthread up and running. There was also some discussion about changing the points balance to reward accurate picking more highly relative to simply picking the correct winner but once agin that one will have to go on the backburner for the present. In terms of fight selection although we've already had some COVID impact still playing a role we're looking as much as possible to keep the number of fights both relatively low (I'm aiming to keep it to 75 - 90 for the full year compared to close to 120 in '20 and '21) with a focus on title fights and those fights marked at least 4 stars per Boxrec or unless we see overwhelming player interest. In general all title fights between fighters ranked in the top 10 per TBRB will be included plus any non-title fights of particular fan interest. Fights with guys in the top few places of the P4P rankings will also generally be included even when (as often happens) they are a prohibitive favourite. Should the WBSS introduce a new season during the course of 2022 we will make every effort to include the fights from that competition or indeed those from any event of similar ambition that should occur during the year. In addition - as mentioned below - efforts will be made to give the players some say in which fights are chosen each month... generally through some type of polling or canvassing system, to try to ensure we're staying fairly close to the pace and game style that suits most of you. So following that lengthy introduction it's down to business I guess. The following table will be kept up to date as best possible as the standard reference to the points and rankings of all the players in the 2022 Pick Em and should also be used to keep track of remaining multipliers and other relevent statistics. Inevitably there will be times when we (I) fall behind with the updating, for which I humbly beg your patience in advance: NSB PICK EM 2022 FINAL RANKINGS

NSB PICK EM 2022 FINAL RANKINGS
Name	Points	Total	Correct	Perfect	%	Streak	Longest	2X	3X	5X
MikeyG	2990	85	70	13	82	0	12	0	0	0
BLASTER1	2800	85	66	12	78	0	11	0	0	0
ruedboy	2790	86	68	18	79	0	15	0	0	0
Koba	2700	84	65	14	77	0	14	0	0	0
ShoulderRoll	2690	80	61	13	76	8	9	0	1	0
Chrismart	2620	85	67	13	79	0	9	0	0	0
MulaKO	2620	80	61	16	76	5	9	0	0	0
DamnWicked	2610	86	67	20	78	0	11	0	0	0
SUBZER0ED	2590	86	59	12	69	0	11	0	0	0
RJJ-94-02=GOAT	2590	82	55	16	67	3	9	0	0	0
Mammoth	2530	86	63	19	73	0	13	0	0	0
siablo14	2470	83	65	13	78	0	15	0	0	0
NCUppercut	2460	86	59	15	69	6	11	0	0	0
Idunnoshet	2440	86	66	12	77	0	15	0	0	0
Baltimore	2370	80	62	11	78	0	12	0	0	0
SteveM	2370	80	54	6	68	0	6	0	0	0
YoungManRumble	2330	86	61	14	71	0	20	0	0	0
mlac	2280	73	54	13	74	0	10	0	0	0
Tatabanya	2210	86	58	8	67	1	8	0	0	0
DrHouse579	2150	67	52	12	78	2	23	0	0	3
BigZ44	2120	74	52	11	70	0	10	0	0	0
Koolkc107	2110	79	50	8	63	1	7	0	0	0
SceneBoxer	2070	82	48	8	59	0	4	0	0	0
bmorph	1790	54	40	11	74	3	13	3	0	2
El-Malo-	1580	61	38	11	62	6	6	9	1	0
keithj	1460	48	34	7	71	0	9	8	4	1
jas	1230	26	18	7	69	0	13	9	2	0
asgarth	1100	36	29	10	81	7	14	8	3	3
PBRStreetgang	1070	47	35	6	74	2	14	5	5	3
Sheppirino	1060	38	28	8	74	3	6	5	5	3
Satir	1040	49	35	9	71	1	9	10	6	3
mathed	1040	35	24	2	69	1	8	2	3	2
BobLoblaw	1010	48	29	6	60	0	5	6	4	2
superbee	740	26	17	3	65	1	4	2	4	2
Ganondorf	540	26	18	4	69	0	4	10	6	3
Cypocryphy	310	8	6	1	75	0	5	9	4	1
kushking	270	11	7	2	64	0	6	9	4	3
eco1	170	4	4	0	100	4	4	8	6	3
hhh1200	130	3	3	1	100	3	3	10	6	3
El_Mero	70	3	2	1	67	1	1	10	6	3
alexnation	60	2	2	0	100	2	2	9	6	3
HandsofIron	60	1	1	0	100	1	1	10	5	3
Ygriffith	50	3	2	0	67	2	2	10	6	3
edpboxing	40	1	1	1	100	1	1	10	6	3
juggler	40	2	2	0	100	2	2	10	6	3
TheUptownKid	40	2	1	1	50	0	1	10	6	3
Anonymous2.0	40	2	1	0	50	0	1	10	6	3
KTFOKING	30	1	1	0	100	1	1	10	6	3
OnlyBeingHonest	30	1	1	0	100	1	1	10	6	3
sctrojan	30	1	1	0	100	1	1	10	6	3
Bphontain	20	1	1	0	100	1	1	10	6	3
Blakbread904	20	2	1	0	50	1	0	10	5	3
ElEscorpion	20	2	1	0	50	1	1	10	6	3

​​ Note on Rankings: PICK EM players with the same number of overall points will now be ordered firstly by % of correct picks and then by the number of perfect picks they have achieved. In the event that any of the three highrest ranked players at the end of the year have the same number of overall points the same rule will apply and prizes awarded accordingly. In the event that any of the top ranked players cannot be seperated by % or Perfect picks the player with the fewest number of total picks shall break the tie. Further differentiation can be obtained by (in order) longest streak, current streak, remaining x5, remaining x3, remaining x2 should it prove necessary... ​ 2022 COMPLETED PICK EMS DATE FIGHT RESULT TALLY POST 2022/01/01 ORTIZ vs MARTIN ORTIZ KO MID #7 2022/01/22 MATIAS vs ANANYAN MATIAS KO LATE #8 2022/01/22 RUSSELL JR vs MAGSAYO MAGSAYO DEC CLOSE #8 2022/01/29 MAKABU vs MCHUNU MAKABU DEC CLOSE #12 2022/02/05 EUBANK JR vs WILLIAMS EUBANK DEC WIDE #22 2022/02/05 NERY vs CASTRO NERY DEC CLOSE #22 2022/02/05 THURMAN vs BARRIOS THURMAN DEC WIDE #22 2022/02/05 JACOBS vs RYDER RYDER DEC CLOSE #25 2022/02/19 KHAN vs BROOK BROOK KO MID #99 2022/02/26 TAYLOR vs CATTERALL TAYLOR DEC CLOSE #100 2022/02/26 RUSSELL JR vs POSTOL RUSSELL KO LATE #100 2022/02/27 OKOLIE vs CIESLAK OKOLIE DEC CLEAR #100 2022/03/04 JOSE CARLOS RAMIREZ vs JOSE PEDRAZA RAMIREZ DEC CLEAR #103 2022/03/05 ROMAN GONZALEZ vs JULIO CESAR MARTINEZ GONZALEZ DEC WIDE #103 2022/03/12 LEIGH WOOD vs MICHAEL CONLAN WOOD KO LATE #124 2022/03/19 KENSHIRO TERAJI vs MASAMICHI YABUKI TERAJI KO EARLY #277 2022/03/19 SUNNY EDWARDS vs MUHAMMED WASEEM EDWARDS DEC CLEAR #277 2022/03/26 JOSH WARRINGTON vs KIKO MARTINEZ WARRINGTON KO MID #278 2022/03/26 TIM TSZYU vs TERRELL GAUSHA TSZYU DEC CLOSE #278 2022/04/09 GENNADY GOLOVKIN vs RYOTA MURATA GOLOVKIN KO LATE #280 2022/04/09 SEBASTIAN FUNDORA vs ERIKSON LUBIN FUNDORA KO LATE #280 2022/04/16 EIMANTAS STANIONIS vs RADZHAB BUTAEV STANIONIS DEC CLEAR #283 2022/04/16 ERROL SPENCE JR vs YORDENIS UGAS SPENCE KO LATE #283 2022/04/22 JOHN RIEL CASIMERO vs PAUL BUTLER CANCELLED 2022/04/23 TYSON FURY vs DILLIAN WHYTE FURY KO MID #327 2022/04/30 LIAM SMITH vs JESSIE VARGAS SMITH KO LATE #329 2022/04/30 KATIE TAYLOR vs AMANDA SERRANO TAYLOR DEC CLOSE #329 2022/04/30 SHAKUR STEVENSON vs OSCAR VALDEZ STEVENSON DEC WIDE #329 2022/05/07 DMITRY BIVOL vs SAUL ALVAREZ BIVOL DEC CLOSE #379 2022/05/14 TONY YOKA vs MARTIN BAKOLE BAKOLE DEC CLOSE #381 2022/05/14 JARRON ENNIS vs CUSTIO CLAYTON ENNIS KO EARLY #381 2022/05/14 JERMELL CHARLO vs BRIAN CASTANO CHARLO KO LATE #381 2022/05/21 JOSHUA BUATSI vs CRAIG RICHARDS BUATSI DEC CLOSE #383 2022/05/21 DAVID BENAVIDEZ vs DAVID LEMIEUX BENAVIDEZ KO EARLY #383 2022/05/21 GERVONTA DAVIS vs ROLANDO ROMERO DAVIS KO MID #403 2022/06/04 STEPHEN FULTON vs DANIEL ROMAN FULTON DEC WIDE #567 2022/06/05 GEORGE KAMBOSOS JR vs DEVIN HANEY HANEY DEC CLEAR #567 2022/06/07 NAOYA INOUE vs NONITO DONAIRE INOUE KO EARLY #567 2022/06/18 ARTUR BETERBIEV vs JOE SMITH JR BETERBIEV KO EARLY #572 2022/06/25 JULIO CESAR MARTINEZ vs McWILLIAMS ARROYO CANCELLED 2022/06/25 JESSE RODRIGUEZ vs WISAKSIL WANGEK RODRIGUEZ KO MID #574 2022/06/25 MURODJON AKHMADALIEV vs RONNY RIOS AKHMADALIEV KO LATE #574 2022/07/09 ISRAIL MADRIMOV vs MICHEL SORO TD NULL 2022/07/09 MARK MAGSAYO vs REY VARGAS VARGAS DEC CLOSE #600 2022/07/13 KASUTO IOKA vs DONNIE NIETES IOKA DEC WIDE #600 2022/07/16 RYAN GARCIA vs JAVIER FORTUNA GARCIA KO MID #902 2022/07/20 THAMMANOON NIYOMTRONG vs CHAYAMON MOONSRI NIYAMTRONG DEC WIDE #602 2022/07/23 JOET GONZALEZ vs ISAAC DOGBOE DOGBOE DEC CLOSE #613 2022/07/30 DANNY GARCIA vs JOSE BENAVIDEZ GARCIA DEC CLEAR #617 2022 Pick Em Prizes: (in case eternal bragging rights just ain't enough for you) Winner: $300 payable by paypal 1st Runner Up: $150 payable by paypal 2nd Runner Up: $50 payable by paypal All prizes provided courtesy of Boxing Scene. Players wishing to be involved in a Boxing Scene points based sweepstakes are invited to do so either the by PM or by making your interest known in the thread below. NSB PICK EM CHAMPION 2021 Keithj Previous winners: 2020 - Asgarth 2019 - Baltimore 2018 - otrocubiche 2017 - RockyB GROUND RULES: - Prior to each fight, a new thread will be made for the purpose of allowing people to record their predictions. Each thread will include a minimum of one fight but may include several. where more than one fight is included every effort will be made to sequence the games firstly by universal time zone (UTC) then by running order, ending with the main event in that time zone. - Predictions must be made prior to the start of the fight. the opening bell of the bout shall be the cut-off point for allowable picks or modifications to picks. Whilst every effort will be made to notify the players in the thread at the moment of the cut off, if this is not possible other resources will be used to establish this moment as accurately as possible in the event of any dispute. - You do not need to make a prediction for every fight to stay in the game, but obviously you will receive no points if you do not pick. TERMINOLOGY RESULT METHOD KO = Will cover all type of stoppage wins - TKO, KO, DQ DECISION = Will cover all type of decision wins - UD, MD, SD, TD DRAW = If you believe the fighters are so evenly matched that a DRAW outcome is a reasonable possibility you may forego picking a winner and instead pick DRAW. RESULT DETAIL If you picked KO, either EARLY (1-4), MID (5-8) or LATE 9-12. (Or 1-3, 4-6, 7-10 for a 10 rounder). If you picked DEC, either 'CLOSE', 'CLEAR' or 'WIDE'. CLOSE = Total score difference is 9 points or fewer eg. 116-113 on all three cards or closer. 115 - 113, 117 - 111, 114 - 114 CLEAR = Total score difference between 10 and 18 points. eg. 117 - 111, 116 - 112, 116 - 112 WIDE = Total score difference of 19 points or greater eg. Wider than 117-111 on all three cards If the fight is a 10 round fight or ends in a technical decision, the cutoff lines of 9 pts and 18 points are scaled down to the number of rounds fought so that CLOSE is ≤0.75R and WIDE is >1.5R - rounded to the nearest whole - where R is the number of rounds fought so WIDE for a 10 round fight will be wider than 15 points (eg 97-93, 98-92, 98-92) and CLOSE will be a total split of 8 points or fewer In the event of a fight being Cancelled, No Decisions, No Contests or Technical Draws under 4 rounds (under those jurisdictions which use such rulings) the Pick Em will be declared null. Multipliers will not have been considered used and the fight will not be counted with regards to the number of picks made or accuracy percentage stistics although for the purposes of assigning numbers to the Pick Ems the bout will still be included. MULTIPLIERS Every player will have the option to use multipliers throughout the game when they feel especially confident of their prediction. It can also allow players who joined late an opportunity to get in the game by scoring a big pick. 2X = Get twice as many points for this prediction. You will receive ten of these at the start of the year to use at will on any fight you choose throughout the year. 3X = Get triple as many points for this prediction. You will begin the game with six of these at the start of the year to use at will on any fight you choose throughout the year. 5x = get five times the regular score for this prediction. This special Hail Mary pick will earn five times regular points but can only be used on a fighter whose official PICK EM ODDS exceed +100 (EVENS) ie: an underdog. In the event that no official odds are provided for a fight the PICK EM CREW may nominate one of the fighters as a provisional underdog in expectation of the odds affirming this. If no odds are available and neither fighter has been nominated as n underdog in the OP of a Pick Em thrread then a x5 may not be used on that fight. All players will begin the game with 3 x5 multipliers which can be used at any time in the year providing the above stipulations are met. ODDS Every effort will be made to obtain accurate odds for each fight in the PICK EM based on an average of odds from a number of different bookmakers on the comparison site proboxingodds.com. The time point will be the point at which the thread is first posted unless no odds are available at that time in which case every effort will be made to use the odds history feature on proboxingodds.com to establish the odds on that day or a soon as possible afterwards.. Whilst we will make every effort to ensure that the odds are accurate at the time they are posted they will reflect the CREWs own final decision and cannot be overuled by reference to any external site or source, although they may legitimately be challenged if a poster has strong reason to believe they have not been calculated accurately. In any event any objections must be raised prior to the fight date and any decsion or ruling of the CREW on such a dispute will be final. SCORING After each fight, your score for that fight will be calculated as follows: Correct Fighter = 20 pts Correct Method = 10 pts Correct Detail = 10 pts Wrong Fighter = 0 pts Draw = If you correctly pick a draw, you will win 150 pts. Everyone else will get 0. The total of above results in your BASE SCORE. Your BASE SCORE for a fight will multiplied by all applicable multipliers / bonuses. If more than one multiplier is applicable to your score the multipliers will be added together before being applied, ie: a x4 underdog multiplier combined with a x3 optional multiplier will result in your score being multiplied by x7 not by x12. Bonus multipliers will be made available for fights with a +300 (4/1) or wider favorite. The amount of the multiplier can be found by reference to the list below, although it is worth noting that in most cases we'll be making efforts to ensure that we include as few fights as possible with very heavy underdogs (x3 or x4): Odds Multiplier <300 x1 300 - 599 x2 600 - 999 x3 1000+ x4 In all cases we reserve the right to make exceptions to the above and will be monitoring the underdog multiplier during the year to check that play balance is not adversely effected. Other Details Score and rankings updates will be made as soon as possible after a fight with the aim of ensuring this occurs within 48 hours... those with experience of previous Pick Ems will know that this in fact rarely happens however... Rankings will include number of remaining multipliers you have left. If you attempt to use a multiplier that you do not have, we will use the highest available multiplier that is less than the one you tried to use. For example, if you say 2X without any 2Xs left, we will treat it as a 1X play. If you use a 3X without any 3Xs left, we will try to use a 2X. The x5 Multiplier is not subject to this rule since it's usage conditions make it inherently different to the x2 and x3 multipliers Communications Despite having tried various methods over the years communications remain problematic... mostly all general information regarding the Pick Em game as a whole or relating to 2022 in particular will be posted in this masterthread, information related to a particular weeks' fights on the other hand will be posted in the specific thread relating to that week. In the even that urgent communications need to be made - such as due to late changes in scheduling or nudges to players who may have made unclear picks or perhaps are ateempting to make illegal picks efforts will be made to contact you either singly or en masse via the call out notification tag which should alert you. Best bet is to just pop by the both the weekly threads and the masterthread every now and then to just check whether any relevent posts have been made by either the CREW or other players that might affect you. Ain't a perfect system but mostly it seems to work out. Fight Selection - UPCOMING PICK EM threads In an effort to continually ensure we are offering the fights most players want to see, and to give players the opportunoity to do research on fights or even provide advance absentee picks it is our intent to post a thread towards the nd of each month specifying which fights we intent to include in the game for the following month. The formula we used last year offered several fights that were definitely to be included but then also offered a pol for players to indicate which - if any - of a number of perhaps less high profile fights they would like to see in the game that month. On the occasions we actually manged to put up such thread I beleive they met with considerable player approval so the goal is to extend the same formula to every month (from March) this year. Previous PICK EM threads. Just for posterity and the terminally curious the masterthreads for the last 5 years' PICK EMs are linked below. In them you can quite clearly track the evolution of the game and follow the often involved discussion of when and why we made all the choices we did. If nothing else it's just cos that ish represents literally hundreds of hours of work and I just can't bear just yet for it to disappear without a final farewell. 2021: https://www.boxingscene.com/forums/b...1-masterthread 2020: https://www.boxingscene.com/forums/s...d.php?t=837530 2019: https://www.boxingscene.com/forums/s...d.php?t=804370 2018: https://www.boxingscene.com/forums/s...d.php?t=774031 2017: https://www.boxingscene.com/forums/s...d.php?t=731902 List of Active Players (placeholder) Hmmm. Okay I think that about covers things - although I'm quite sure this page will go through interminable revisions throughout the year as it has done in past years. Now if I could once again thank the mods for their patience over the last few years with my constant badgering for modifications and correction to thread titles and stuff, and ask if you could please sticky this new Masterthread and remove the 2021 Masterthread and the 2021 Ideas and discussion thread it'd be greatly appreciated. BostonGuy, TBear, jaded, LoadedWraps, bigjavi973 Finally a warm welcome back to all our 2021 players and anyone who's returning from previous years and of course the same goes to any new players who are joining us in 2022... hope you all have as much fun with this as I do, and best of luck to all of you throughout the year. Seems to me we've got better pretty much year on year and the epic 2021 photo finish didn't disappoint. Not quite sure how we're gonna beat that in 2022 but I'm ready to give it a shot. Best of luck gentlemen Koba​