I been waiting for this one a while.
Say what you want, but you have a former undisputed cruiserweight champion, a man who has not tasted defeat, he's confident, he's skilled, he's come up the hard way.
He's moving up to fight a super heavyweight, a big star of the sport, a guy with a lot of question marks over where he's at and where he can get to. And maybe a guy with a point to prove
I think it's a very interesting fight for the purists, that's gone a bit under the radar, maybe because this is Joshuas last contracted fight with his current broadcaster.
But let's talk about it, how do you think it plays out?
Usyk beats him within 9 rounds
AJ isn’t the pressure fighter like Chisora is. He fancies himself as a skilled boxer and will give Usyk room to work. The problem is AJ is not good enough a boxer for that in this fight. The size won’t be alien to Usyk either, be spent years sparring guys that size or fighting in the WSB.
Usyk beats him handily in 9 rounds or under. AJ will start falling apart after round 6 or so, then get picked apart, gassed and stopped.
I was nearly right, expect AJ started coming apart after 9 and nearly got stopped in the 12th
You know looking at the public workouts and images released the last few days has me really pondering this fight in my head.
We know Joshua has been working on his back foot game trying to improve his defence and energy conservation right? To me he is looking very lean for this one and clearly planning for a 12 round back foot fight.
So to me, if I'm advising Usyk I would have advised his strategy to be to force Joshua to come forward, because I think Usyk has the ability to steal rounds and force AJ into having to chase the fight, which isn't what he wants to do.
So I do not understand why Usyk has decided to bulk up, if he thinks he's going to be able to catch AJ in an exchange Ruiz 1 style I dot really see it.
I also don't see him blasting AJ out early.
And if the fight goes late, I think Usyk has now given up his stamina advantage.
I think it's going to be Usyk having to chase the fight after 6 rounds, with the leaned down AJ having not expended as much energy as Usyk would like, and Usyk himself feeling the extra 15lbs he's put on.
I honestly had a feeling Usyk was going to win this one by smart boxing but to me, I think he's got his tactics wrong, I think he IS planning to try and catch AJ in an exchange but I don't think AJ is going to open up early like that, Usyk is gonna have to use some gamesmanship and play possum (and AJ does need to watch for that) but I think it's gonna backfire.
I'm now pretty confident of an AJ win
At his age Usyk wanted to get one of the big $$ fish at HW either Joshua,Fury or Wilder whoever he had the first chance at in order to get his biggest payday. I’m glad he’s getting paid well but again his road to get a opportunity to win 3 belts is ridiculous after beating 2 stiffs
This is an important point, Usyk is reaching the end of his prime, with the current "situation" worldwide, how often title fights are happening and all the politics, if Usyk didn't go for it now, he might have been waiting until he was 37, 38 to get a shot.
I can't be 100% sure but I do think I saw the first few little signs of age start to creep in against Chisora, now that could have just been that usky didn't take him seriously but either way, he really had to jump now in my opinion.
I think Usyk's aim was to be heavyweight champion and his team was hoping it would be by picking up a vacant WBO belt. Once Joshua missed out on the Fury fight it was pretty clear the belt won't be becoming vacant for a while.
So there's nothing to lose. Have a go now and make a lot of money at the same time. The belt won't be coming around again.
At his age Usyk wanted to get one of the big $$ fish at HW either Joshua,Fury or Wilder whoever he had the first chance at in order to get his biggest payday. I’m glad he’s getting paid well but again his road to get a opportunity to win 3 belts is ridiculous after beating 2 stiffs
Am I the only one that thinks Usyk is just cashing out? His team whole plan was to find the easiest way to get a Heavyweight title fight, he beat Witherspoon and Chisora for gods sake.
Usyk is a good fighter but at Heavyweight this guy can’t bust a grape but with Joshua weak chin who knows what happens haha
Give me Joshua in 9
That's exactly why I myself will try to cash out... The odds on Usyk by KO in the late rounds are exceptionally inviting.
Am I the only one that thinks Usyk is just cashing out? His team whole plan was to find the easiest way to get a Heavyweight title fight, he beat Witherspoon and Chisora for gods sake.
Usyk is a good fighter but at Heavyweight this guy can’t bust a grape but with Joshua weak chin who knows what happens haha
Give me Joshua in 9
I think Usyk's aim was to be heavyweight champion and his team was hoping it would be by picking up a vacant WBO belt. Once Joshua missed out on the Fury fight it was pretty clear the belt won't be becoming vacant for a while.
So there's nothing to lose. Have a go now and make a lot of money at the same time. The belt won't be coming around again.
a true joshua victory can only occur by KO, if not, usyk will be robbed in the cards, is been happening forever and lately this robberies are shameless more and more
Tough one for me to pick, but I think if Usyk can survive the 1st half of the fight he may be able to win a decision. In order for him to win a decision, it'll need to be clear cut and obvious because with the way judging is, who knows these days.
I'm thinking josh will win this as he is focused and people are telling him usyk might win. But same token if usyk wins I'll be thinking I knew he would shock people and show he is more than we saw against chisora
Joshua hasn’t in 21 rounds lost a round since the Ruiz loss . The only one over thinking AJs career and training are the posters on the forum . I still expect that number to grow on Saturday night with minimal rounds lost .
He has not lost a round due to the era and competition that surrounds him 'He is getting away with certain things to this point'. I know deep down that you have concerns, you know exactly what I am talking about.
It may take a fight, where Joshua wins put performs badly for people to understand 'Joshua has the ability to do better'.
Joshua is still working through a process, and he deserves credit for that. But I am of the opinion that Joshua is not in peak form, he is in repressed form 'I don't think he is fully being himself'. Many other sports athletes probably also go through this same process, basketball players, NFL players and soccer's players 'But the difference is, I don't think there performance are as highly scrutinize and with the risks as in boxing'.
You want the champion to be the affect, and the influence. With Joshua it just seems like the opponents are influencing him, they are the ones having the dominant affect.
And constantly, removing him from himself. Joshua is the Champion.
I just don't agree, because he is facing a cruiser weight 'That he should suddenly obsess over becoming super light'.
I don't agree with Heavyweights, going up and down greatly, deliberately.
I admire Joshua's efforts, I know he is fighting many things.
Am I the only one that thinks Usyk is just cashing out? His team whole plan was to find the easiest way to get a Heavyweight title fight, he beat Witherspoon and Chisora for gods sake.
Usyk is a good fighter but at Heavyweight this guy can’t bust a grape but with Joshua weak chin who knows what happens haha
Give me Joshua in 9
All fighters train in a certain way to beat an upcoming opponent.
I'd hope that in Joshua's case that's how he's thinking, and the weight fluctuation is a result of his training rather than a target for his training. I'd be surprised if he's thinking 'lighter' rather than 'faster' or 'heavier' rather than 'stronger'.
In any case, I think he looked a lot better in his last two fights. A bit more mobile generally and stamina v Ruiz was good. Size and strength isn't ever really going to be an issue for him. I think he's settling into his optimal weight now around 235-240. That's not a particularly big range at his size.
Yes they do, but it is clear to me that Joshua is repressing himself. I am not the only person to identify this, both Teddy Atlas & Pauli Malignaggi have made similar observations.
Joshua before Ruiz I, was improving 'Then he lost against Ruiz I, and for me he has just gone to far with his obsessions and intricacy's'.
He for sure has not slayed the dragon from the Ruiz I loss, he is still going through a process of rebuilding 'But the building process is up and down'.
This is a man who lives around the corner from me, who is always doing something to his house. Paint the door, paint over the door again. Brick the garden, knock the brick wall down, brick it again, paint the door 'That is Joshua right about now in boxing'.
The Obsession.
Super Light Joshua is not peak Joshua, it is Joshua in repressed form.
Note: Anthony Joshua is fighting through his trauma, and he deserves credit for that. He is not just fighting Usyk, he is fighting the Dragon.
Personally while his approach to Ruiz 2 worked I don't think that was the only thing that could have worked for him, he didn't need to be that negative, Ruiz really wasn't going to land anything so long as Joshua didn't pretty much literally offer him his chin, so he could have fought a bit more assertive and let more right hands go, he didn't need to run, just be defensively responsible, I think he's still figuring out that there is a sweet spot there between swinging like an idiot and running.
He may not have needed to, but to what end? He pretty much guaranteed himself the win in a must win fight. History will show a UD. It's all that counts.
Agree he's still finding his balance between moving and banging but that's a good thing. It's about becoming a more rounded fighter who has proven he can adapt to different styles.
At the very, very top level, they're all good fighters with certain strengths. It's the adjustments that separate the best from the good. Fury and Joshua have made adjustments to get big wins. That's a big feather in their caps.
Joshua came in lighter when he planned to be on his bike against Ruiz and not engage with in-fighting. That was because he knew what would happen as Ruiz stay put and fight, is much faster, throws in combination, and Joshua cannot take his punches.
Against Usyk, Joshua might take a clue from Fury and come in heavier to physically manhandle Usyk and have that much power behind his punches. He ain't outrunning Usyk, so there is no point in coming in lighter.
Personally while his approach to Ruiz 2 worked I don't think that was the only thing that could have worked for him, he didn't need to be that negative, Ruiz really wasn't going to land anything so long as Joshua didn't pretty much literally offer him his chin, so he could have fought a bit more assertive and let more right hands go, he didn't need to run, just be defensively responsible, I think he's still figuring out that there is a sweet spot there between swinging like an idiot and running.
There's nothing strange about it; it's the last one under the Sky Sports deal. It sold out in under 24 hours and the PPV is priced quite expensive. Everyone is set to make a lot of money, so Sky isn't going out of their way to promote someone leaving them. If Hearn wanted to do shoulder programming, he'd likely have to foot the bill. I guess they figured theyre all set for this one.
This is kind of what I'm angling at.
Matchroom might be off to DAZN, but as far as I know, AJ is still up for grabs in both promotional and broadcast terms.
Okay, but there's a fight left on both deals. And a fighter there to be won. Matchroom should really be showing Joshua why he can't live without them. Sky should be showing AJ why he needs then as his broadcaster. I'll acknowledge that Sky are at least making some kind of effort.
I stand by my comment that this is an unusual build up. Could it be that the decision is made - and Joshua will be changing promoter? And maybe he's leaving Sky too?
All of which makes the fights we want to see a little more possible?
All fighters train in a certain way to beat an upcoming opponent.
I'd hope that in Joshua's case that's how he's thinking, and the weight fluctuation is a result of his training rather than a target for his training. I'd be surprised if he's thinking 'lighter' rather than 'faster' or 'heavier' rather than 'stronger'.
In any case, I think he looked a lot better in his last two fights. A bit more mobile generally and stamina v Ruiz was good. Size and strength isn't ever really going to be an issue for him. I think he's settling into his optimal weight now around 235-240. That's not a particularly big range at his size.
Joshua was never really in the 235 range . He started his career lighter but he didn’t look better he had major holes in his defense as most prospects do against small time fighters to what he’s fighting now . He’s faster at about 240 but that’s any fighter who decides to weigh less . I’d be surprised if he comes in near 235 because it’s not necessary here as his speed and power seem right even there balances out ,he’s 31 now and shouldn’t weigh less then 240 . He’s eventually going to weigh 245/250 as he ages at 6”6 .
Yes, that is why I say that he is repressing himself. Naturally fighters especially heavyweights, mature and get a tad bigger as they progress through their careers.
Joshua is clearly, clearly repressing himself and playing the numbers game. He may have won the rematch vs Ruiz Junior, but I have always thought he looked extremely weak in that fight.
Joshua was a bit better vs Pulev, but once again? It looks like is obsession could be taking over again.
Joshua came in lighter when he planned to be on his bike against Ruiz and not engage with in-fighting. That was because he knew what would happen as Ruiz stay put and fight, is much faster, throws in combination, and Joshua cannot take his punches.
Against Usyk, Joshua might take a clue from Fury and come in heavier to physically manhandle Usyk and have that much power behind his punches. He ain't outrunning Usyk, so there is no point in coming in lighter.
How light is he supposed to be in this fight? Ive always thought he should be around 235 instead of 245-250. He looks much better to me at the 235 range.
Heavyweights should not play the numbers game. Joshua since Ruiz I, has been living and training in a repressed form.
He does not hit as hard as he used to, and his durability is even worse 'All because of his obsession with being super light' When I say super light, I am not just talking about weight 'Joshua entire attitude, and persona to training and fighting has change' I am not convinced that it is for the better, because he taking this obsession a bit too far.
He needs to be himself.
Note: I cannot really be bothered writing in-depth right about now, I will just leave my opinion as that for now.
I really don't like this obsession that Anthony Joshua has with being super light 'Never before have we seen a Heavyweight behave like this, Joshua is repressing himself and making out it is all scientific'.
Joshua has been suffering from this obsession since the loss to Ruiz I.
The obsession is not just about weight, because I would imagine it has affected how he trains.
I don't rate Usyk very highly in terms of pure ability 'Tony Bellew was beating Usyk or being extremely competitive until he fatigued. And that was a Bellew that was a completely dead at the weight, and should of stayed at heavyweight'.
I just think Joshua is making this fight difficult for himself.
How light is he supposed to be in this fight? Ive always thought he should be around 235 instead of 245-250. He looks much better to me at the 235 range.