While we all talk about if Teo is right about the lowball or whether he should take the money anyway even if he thinks it's low...let's also not forget to talk about the elephant in the room.
Top Rank has to have extra cash in hand from the budget ESPN had for this year. They had months where no purses or venues were paid because there were no fights.
So, why is Arum only offering Lopez 1.2 million?
Could it be that Bob really doesn't want this fight to happen during a time he can't sell ppvs or tickets to an arena?
The point is, we've seen this dog and pony show before.
So, we just might want to include others in our list of folks to blame, not just Teo if you absolutely need a scapegoat.
While we all talk about if Teo is right about the lowball or whether he should take the money anyway even if he thinks it's low...let's also not forget to talk about the elephant in the room.
Top Rank has to have extra cash in hand from the budget ESPN had for this year. They had months where no purses or venues were paid because there were no fights.
So, why is Arum only offering Lopez 1.2 million?
Could it be that Bob really doesn't want this fight to happen during a time he can't sell ppvs or tickets to an arena?
The point is, we've seen this dog and pony show before.
So, we just might want to include others in our list of folks to blame, not just Teo if you absolutely need a scapegoat.
Look at the posters who are blaming only Lopez and calling him all kinds of names. It’s clear there is something other than just boxing on their agenda.
You know posters are full of **** when they claim the reason Lopez should take less is because he “talked junk”.
It’s as if they want Lopez to sell the fight to the public and also take the extremely short end of the stick.
Now if Loma were Floyd or odh in terms of drawing power, ok. But he isn’t.
Loma gets more but five Lopez a fairer portion and make the fight happen.
All of what you said is valid.
Lopez's peak DID come on an undercard.
33% is about what Pedraza got and you could make an argument for that...but, Lopez is undefeated and more popular than Jose. That's why I slotted him between the two champions in the first metric. There's also the fact that almost 3 million people tuned in to watch the Heisman trophy presentation right before Loma v Pedraza. But, I used that instead of the next highest because I wanted best case scenarios. So, that kind of balances out the fact that Lopez's peak was as an undercard fight.
But, the point here is that Arum is offering closer to 25%. That's a lowball on purpose and, if you're Teofimo, it's worse when you look across the aisle and see Loma offered a career high payday. Where's the pandemic excuse for him?
Honestly dunno... not sure what if any guarantees Loma and Teo have got or how the offers made stand relative to those guarantees. Undoubtedly there's a budget to work to and could be Bobs offering both guys a similar amount in proportion to their minimums so I ain't necessarily gonna call it a deliberate lowball without full knowledge. Like I say though I do agree with the thrust of your argument that Bob's effectively created a no-lose, which is - of course - what he should be doing when judged as a businessman.
For the same reason I'm not gonna be calling Teo a 'duck' or whatever else, cos far as I'm concerned every fighter has the right to decide what they are worth and what a fight is worth to them - although for PR purposes Teo might consider going a little lighter on the smack talk in future if he elects to hold out and the fight doesn't get made. Probably a lesson all fighters gotta confront at some point though.
I like the approach - breaking down the numbers, although I would point out that Teo - Commey was not the main event and that a significant part of the viewership could have been driven by Crawford. Furthermore that Teo vs Loma is much more akin to Loma vs Pedraza - a unification - than it is to Loma vs Linares (where Loma was a challenger) except in this case the trinkets are even more in Lomachenko's favour obviously since he's now unified.
Aside from that though I kinda see it somewhat like you, Bob ain't really got too much motivation to pay Teo more than he's offering... he ain't wanting to lose money and if Teo walks it's not the end of the world either. Fight can be made later for more money, or at worst it never gets made and Teo moves up, neither star takes an L and Loma fights Teo's successor for the IBF instead.
Based on the reasoning I gave above though, I'm more inclined to see 33/66 as fair... roughly $1.5 mil to $3mil in favour of Loma, but at the end of the day it's down to each fighter (and their team) to decide what he's worth and what a fight is worth to him. Ain't gonna fault a dude for trying to get the most he can for his services. Only time will tell whether choices were wise or not.
All of what you said is valid.
Lopez's peak DID come on an undercard.
33% is about what Pedraza got and you could make an argument for that...but, Lopez is undefeated and more popular than Jose. That's why I slotted him between the two champions in the first metric. There's also the fact that almost 3 million people tuned in to watch the Heisman trophy presentation right before Loma v Pedraza. But, I used that instead of the next highest because I wanted best case scenarios. So, that kind of balances out the fact that Lopez's peak was as an undercard fight.
But, the point here is that Arum is offering closer to 25%. That's a lowball on purpose and, if you're Teofimo, it's worse when you look across the aisle and see Loma offered a career high payday. Where's the pandemic excuse for him?
Here's the math again, for those of you who missed it or don't get it. I'm going to use 2 different metrics. The first is based on what past champions Loma faced got, the second is based on career high peak viewership, since neither Lopez or Loma has done a US ppv (Loma has done British ppv once but the numbers were pretty bad and there's nothing to compare to for Lopez)
1) Linares got 1 million to Loma's 1.2 million. That's about a 55/45 split. Pedraza got 1 million to Loma's 2 million. That's about a 65/35 split. Both Linares and Pedraza had losses, Loma was a challenger to Linares while Pedraza was a unification. Lopez is undefeated; and while Lopez is probably more of a draw than both, for argument's sake let's slot Teo in between the other two champions. That would mean Teo should get 40%. The total pot for Loma/Lopez appears to be 4.45 million. 40% of that is about 1.8 million, meaning that by this metric Arum is lowballing Lopez by over half a million dollars.
2) Lomachenko's career peak viewership came against Pedraza. It was a little over 2 million people watching. Lopez's career peak viewership came against Commey. It was at over 1.4 million. That is 3.4 million viewers total. 2 million of 3.4 million viewers comes in right under 59%. 1.4 million of 3.4 million viewers comes in right over 41%. Again, it seems that based on peak viewership, a 60/40 split is in order and that the 1.2 million dollars being offered to Lopez is about half a million dollars short.
Hope this helps...
I like the approach - breaking down the numbers, although I would point out that Teo - Commey was co-main and that a significant part of the viewership could have been driven by Crawford. So as yet Teo has not proven he's a draw on his own, certainly not with consistency. Furthermore that Teo vs Loma is much more akin to Loma vs Pedraza - a unification - than it is to Loma vs Linares (where Loma was a challenger) except in this case the trinkets are even more in Lomachenko's favour obviously since he's now unified.
Aside from that though I kinda see it somewhat like you, Bob ain't really got too much motivation to pay Teo more than he's offering... he ain't wanting to lose money and if Teo walks it's not the end of the world either. Fight can be made later for more money, or at worst it never gets made and Teo moves up, neither star takes an L and Loma fights Teo's successor for the IBF instead.
Based on the reasoning I gave above though, I'm more inclined to see 33/66 as fair... roughly $1.5 mil to $3mil in favour of Loma, but at the end of the day it's down to each fighter (and their team) to decide what he's worth and what a fight is worth to him. Ain't gonna fault a dude for trying to get the most he can for his services. Only time will tell whether choices were wise or not.
Here's the math again, for those of you who missed it or don't get it. I'm going to use 2 different metrics. The first is based on what past champions Loma faced got, the second is based on career high peak viewership, since neither Lopez or Loma has done a US ppv (Loma has done British ppv once but the numbers were pretty bad and there's nothing to compare to for Lopez)
1) Linares got 1 million to Loma's 1.2 million. That's about a 55/45 split. Pedraza got 1 million to Loma's 2 million. That's about a 65/35 split. Both Linares and Pedraza had losses, Loma was a challenger to Linares while Pedraza was a unification. Lopez is undefeated; and while Lopez is probably more of a draw than both, for argument's sake let's slot Teo in between the other two champions. That would mean Teo should get 40%. The total pot for Loma/Lopez appears to be 4.45 million. 40% of that is about 1.8 million, meaning that by this metric Arum is lowballing Lopez by over half a million dollars.
2) Lomachenko's career peak viewership came against Pedraza. It was a little over 2 million people watching. Lopez's career peak viewership came against Commey. It was at over 1.4 million. That is 3.4 million viewers total. 2 million of 3.4 million viewers comes in right under 59%. 1.4 million of 3.4 million viewers comes in right over 41%. Again, it seems that based on peak viewership, a 60/40 split is in order and that the 1.2 million dollars being offered to Lopez is about half a million dollars short.
Hope this helps...
Bob doesn't want this fight until it makes money.
If Teo accepts the lowball, Arum "makes" the money he should have payed out.
But, what Arum really wants is to wait till folks can by tickets and order subscriptions or ppv.
This scenario is perfect from where he sits because he comes out ahead either way.
Either the fight dies, ESPN steps in with more cash to placate Teo, or Arum gets to push it to next year.
I agree with you, Loma has not shown enough slippage for the "pass the baton fight to the younger generation" fight.
Bob most likely does not want to risk Loma vs Teo where he can't squeeze the most money out of it and risk a Loma L in the process especially if he feels like Loma can still raise his own stock (and win) vs the likes of Haney, Ryan and Tank.
Bob doesn't want this fight until it makes money.
If Teo accepts the lowball, Arum "makes" the money he should have payed out.
But, what Arum really wants is to wait till folks can by tickets and order subscriptions or ppv.
This scenario is perfect from where he sits because he comes out ahead either way.
Either the fight dies, ESPN steps in with more cash to placate Teo, or Arum gets to push it to next year.
i agree with exactly what you say....i think thats exactly why he dismissed pac/crawford when he still had pac....
just not too sure pushing it till next year is an option....so i think either the fight dies or espn steps in to save it.....personally i think it dies
i believe bob never really wanted this fight nor does he...and i kinda get it...it almost doesnt make sense from a promotional company standpoint although im sure you can make an argument that either guy winning wont hurt anything also
the thing i hate reading, which comes from the usual suspects who defend anything involving an EE fighter that they need to live vicariously through, is this...."lopez talks alot of ****...if he wants to back it up just take the money and back it up in the ring"
the list of guys who take short money just to get a fight made is very small...and its not wise...even if youre 100 percent confident youll win it doesnt mean you have to take less than you feel you are worth(within reason).....the momentum and hype for this fight has been building and building......lopez isnt going to take less in this situation...he also isnt fighting floyd, canelo or pac here....while this fight will raise his standing(especially by winnning) it isnt that big of a profile raise to take less money in the event of an L...
Bob doesn't want this fight until it makes money.
If Teo accepts the lowball, Arum "makes" the money he should have payed out.
But, what Arum really wants is to wait till folks can by tickets and order subscriptions or ppv.
This scenario is perfect from where he sits because he comes out ahead either way.
Either the fight dies, ESPN steps in with more cash to placate Teo, or Arum gets to push it to next year.
i believe bob never really wanted this fight nor does he...and i kinda get it...it almost doesnt make sense from a promotional company standpoint although im sure you can make an argument that either guy winning wont hurt anything also
the thing i hate reading, which comes from the usual suspects who defend anything involving an EE fighter that they need to live vicariously through, is this...."lopez talks alot of ****...if he wants to back it up just take the money and back it up in the ring"
the list of guys who take short money just to get a fight made is very small...and its not wise...even if youre 100 percent confident youll win it doesnt mean you have to take less than you feel you are worth(within reason).....the momentum and hype for this fight has been building and building......lopez isnt going to take less in this situation...he also isnt fighting floyd, canelo or pac here....while this fight will raise his standing(especially by winnning) it isnt that big of a profile raise to take less money in the event of an L...
The bold: This is what it's all about, and I'll speak out on it every time I see it. Green K.
i believe bob never really wanted this fight nor does he...and i kinda get it...it almost doesnt make sense from a promotional company standpoint although im sure you can make an argument that either guy winning wont hurt anything also
the thing i hate reading, which comes from the usual suspects who defend anything involving an EE fighter that they need to live vicariously through, is this...."lopez talks alot of ****...if he wants to back it up just take the money and back it up in the ring"
the list of guys who take short money just to get a fight made is very small...and its not wise...even if youre 100 percent confident youll win it doesnt mean you have to take less than you feel you are worth(within reason).....the momentum and hype for this fight has been building and building......lopez isnt going to take less in this situation...he also isnt fighting floyd, canelo or pac here....while this fight will raise his standing(especially by winnning) it isnt that big of a profile raise to take less money in the event of an L...
Simple - If Teo ends up getting more money, he will be seen as a smart negotiator. If Teo gets what he is being offered, then at least he tried. If he ends up blowing the negotiations, he will be seen as a fool.
That's the long and short of it. I understand playing your hand, but you don't wanna overplay it and cost yourself a career-high purse.
According to Teofimo, he's going to 140lbs in 2021.The IBF belt will be vacated and Loma will fight for it. Teo's only chance to make more than one million is fighting Taylor, Prograis or Rameriz without a weight or size advantage. All three are big, strong heavy handed Jr welterweights that all fought better opposition.
To be clear...in the real world. Teofimo is worth what the market will pay. Here on earth, fighting little Loma for one million represents the lowest risk high reward. After that Teo gets crushed for one million by weight bully's just like Teo.
I can’t argue this for or against because it’s all hypothetical but you do bring up Some Strong arguments. I Favored Commey going into their fight and favor Ramirez, Prograis and Taylor over him. Too many flaws in defense and not sure he has the Roy Jones gifts as he moves up.
But to say that he is not justified giving
A) Abysmal ratings Top
rank has delivered. Top Rank needs a big fight to stay relevant. That’s why this is being discussed for regular ESPN.
B) Lesser fighters have made more. While I understand it’s a pandemic, this fight is worth billions worldwide. 5 million to pay Two fighters is nothing compared to the potential
Pay out.
C) Paper champ or not, Lopez is a title Holder. This is a unification bout featuring the #1 p4p Fighter in the world.
Pay the cost to be the boss Top Rank, pay Lopez 2
Mil.
If he turns that down then yes Lopez is then a punk b itch.
First off, it's not a lowball offer. Anyone who have been watching boxing long enough will attest to that. Overwhelming majority says so. Yet you keep ignoring this as if there's some grand conspiracy just to defame the guy.
So this nonsense about Arum not really wanting the fight is absolute nonsense. He could have offered $500K or a little under $1 million, which even then is debatable because this Lopez guy was the one begging for this fight. Said nasty things like Loma ducking the fight. Why would you even ignore the fact that being given opportunity to dethrone the Ukrainian king is of tremendous value? Which will bring him more money than he ever imagined if he wins? Is being given the chance to do so no longer have any value in this god-forsaken sport?
Know your worth!! Ignore the haters in all aspects of life!!
Great to see all These keyboard warriors criticizing a man willing to take on the biggest risk and fight in boxing and wants to be compensated.
Chocolatito asked for a mil as well
Against Estrada and he is also
Right.
Neither Chocolatito nor Teo are afraid of their opponent, they just know their worth and Want to get paid.
It’s their life, their bodies and legacy on the line.
He talked trash to get the fight, now he wants to get paid.
Nothing wrong with anything, especially considering nobody else in his position would take the risk.
According to Teofimo, he's going to 140lbs in 2021.The IBF belt will be vacated and Loma will fight for it. Teo's only chance to make more than one million is fighting Taylor, Prograis or Rameriz without a weight or size advantage. All three are big, strong heavy handed Jr welterweights that all fought better opposition.
To be clear...in the real world. Teofimo is worth what the market will pay. Here on earth, fighting little Loma for one million represents the lowest risk high reward. After that Teo gets crushed for one million by weight bully's just like Teo.
Know your worth!! Ignore the haters in all aspects of life!!
Great to see all These keyboard warriors criticizing a man willing to take on the biggest risk and fight in boxing and wants to be compensated.
Chocolatito asked for a mil as well
Against Estrada and he is also
Right.
Neither Chocolatito nor Teo are afraid of their opponent, they just know their worth and Want to get paid.
It’s their life, their bodies and legacy on the line.
He talked trash to get the fight, now he wants to get paid.
Nothing wrong with anything, especially considering nobody else in his position would take the risk.
In 2021 Teofimo will be forced to move up. He'll look average fighting for peanuts without a size advantage and get crushed for one million fighting the top 3.
You haven't seen me say 1.2 million is not a good payday.
But, no one seems to be able to say why or bring numbers to justify why 27% is ok for Lopez.
It can't be based on what other champions got, because Lopez would deserve more of a percentage than Linares or Pedraza.
It can't be based on viewership because, even without the hype machine Loma has behind him, Teo's highest peak viewership of 1.4 million is not that far off from Loma's 2 million. According to those numbers, Lopez should be getting about a 40% split.
The only argument I see being offered is some variation of because Teo had been selling wolf tickets for the fight he should take whatever is being offered...and that's not a mature argument.
And, it isn't hating Arum to point out he has done these types of things before, that fights have not been made because he tried to lowball guys.
But, some folk choose to ignore all that history and blame a guy with a legit beef.
It's amazing, really...
When REALITY set in, Teo will be forced to move up in 2021 ( In his words). A weight division where only Rougarou, Taylor or Rameriz can guarantee one million.. Good luck with that.
Here's my prediction:
The fight will fall thru.
We'll see both guys fight stiffs as title defenses, maybe on the same card.
And, as soon as they announce a cure or vaccine for coronavirus, we'll see the match on ppv or ESPN+ shortly after.
Because THAT'S what Arum wants.
It's 2 of his most marketable stars. He doesn't want to see that on free TV with no gate an limited revenue streams.
Arum absolutely wants Loma-Lopez to happen on ESPN. He has to sprinkle in fights like Pacquiao-Horn and Lomachenko-Rigo here and there to do huge numbers, which allows Top Rank to keep feeding them the 50-odd garbage fights the rest of the year.
Otherwise ESPN is going to adjust the budget or terminate the deal entirely.
Here's my prediction:
The fight will fall thru.
We'll see both guys fight stiffs as title defenses, maybe on the same card.
And, as soon as they announce a cure or vaccine for coronavirus, we'll see the match on ppv or ESPN+ shortly after.
Because THAT'S what Arum wants.
It's 2 of his most marketable stars. He doesn't want to see that on free TV with no gate an limited revenue streams.