It takes intelligence and smarts to say "y'know what.....I did think he wanted it, but it's obvious now that he doesn't want the Joshua fight".
Anyone got the balls and smarts to just call this what it is finally?
Likewise, at times I've given up on his forum due to the sheer volume of trolling but I have enjoyed this discussion.
On the location, I would only say that it may be difficult for US fans to appreciate just how deep the level of suspicion is on both the fairness of scorecards and also other aspects around selection of referee, conditions at the arena etc etc. Most people feel Fury was robbed on just that kind of setup, why would AJ risk that?
Joshua has been fighting in front of 90k in his hometown, he is the number one, unified champion, earns massive revenue outside the ring and has far better alternative options to earn should a Wilder fight not be agreed. Or as US fans have taught us he's the A side. Is a promoter really being short sighted in maintaining this position unless a good reason is provided to abandon it?
So the impetus to move the fight to the US to pursue what was at the time a marginal rise in his purse to accommodate team Wilders desires to maximise return simply wasn't there. AJ makes 60m+ next year without this fight, hes still improving as a fighter, it's not easy to exert leverage on that position. Now of course it looks like they will fight in the US first, but likely on a promotion they control.
On the second point, it's too early to tell if the current bullish activity in US boxing can translate into revenues. Can the PPV model stand alongside the subscription services? Or does something have to give?
Yeah, there is a lot of posturing on this forum and it's refreshing to discuss something with someone without the dick-measuring contest.
Just a couple of thoughts on your excellent post above.
(1) Note that the ringside press on the Wilder/Fury fight was very mixed. The majority of those polled at ringside believed that it was a very close fight. The plurality I believe was for a draw and no fighter got a majority for a win. It is a constant drumbeat here but I chalk it up to sour grapes. I've never seen a fight in my life that went 12 rounds where someone landed 82 punches and was floored twice without knocking down the other guy but was somehow robbed of victory. I'd tell any fighter the same thing - land more punches next time (same goes to Wilder). Yeah, I know that this is a trigger for some people so they ought not to respond on this point. Those are the facts and they're entitled to have their own opinions. But I guarantee if those roles were reversed Fury fans would still be screaming about the decision because the other guy got knocked down twice, the punches were almost even and their guy was moving forward the entire night.
(2) The whole A side / B side presents something in black and white when it's not nearly that clear cut. There's a big difference between fighting Whyte or fighting Schwartz for example and each of those guys will be paid accordingly. It's not just a matter that the "B side" gets the scraps every time. If that fighter increases the interest and the purse significantly, then they have leverage.
In this case, Joshua may earn $60M next year but he will likely exceed that in one fight. Since he is not the unified champion the only way for him to raise his profile in the US is to unify the belts. That means a fight with Wilder. He could take the low-risk road but at this point the big money requires a unification bout.
(3) From Wilder's standpoint, taking $5M or even $15M was insulting when he knew that he was bringing much more to the table than that. It's a high-risk fight for them both (Joshua is the favorite) and that's a lot of risk for him without the corresponding reward. Both promoters aren't going to sign until they believe the money is too good to pass up. So if Joshua loses he can sleep on a bed made up of pounds sterling banknotes. Same for Wilder on a bed made up of C-Bills. Wilder isn't going to take 1/4th of the gate. While I don't think this fight ends up 50/50, Wilder's camp is going to make sure they don't look bad by taking half as much either.
If both guys win their next fight, I believe that the interest will be about as big as it's going to get for a title fight between two undefeated champions. There's more than enough money to go around and it'll get done. Of course, if either loses then all the talk will be how they messed up and should have taken the payday earlier. Wilder, in particular, needs to do something within a relatively short time frame or he'll run the risk of getting too old.
On the second point, I think both can co-exist if carefully balanced. If there's not enough big fights on the subscription model then people won't pay for it. If most of the good fights are there then no one will want to pay for a PPV. But if there's enough compelling content to justify the sub model I can still see boxing fans splurging for a big PPV event.
Not discounting anything. We agree Wilder doesn't deserve 50/50. He is closing the gap though. The offer has gone from 12.5 to 40. Clearly he's doing something right.
By the time he completely closes the gap he’d be past his prime and I guess that’s the fight you’d rather wanna see. Though milking the fight is the smart business move, it hurts the sport, the fans, and in this case the fighter as well, but I can see you’re openly supporting it and I hope it goes for all the other fights we’ve had wanted to see in the past, and presently as well.
Or does it only work for Wilder?
Can’t blame Haymon and showtime for controlling Wilder as they’re only doing what’s best for them. And wilder signing to another banner to make his to history and more importantly get paid is majorly detrimental.
If wilder took that offer, not only would it show that he wants the fight for real, but he’s also getting paid handsomely to fight the same guy he’d fight for less. He’s also gonna get Joshua— even if it’s not guarranteed presently, we both know it’d create an insane amount of pressure for the other side.
Take all his belts. Make history. Finally be the A-side he desperately wants. And he can do whatever he wants after that.
Every A-side superstar has been once the B-side in their lives, they took it like a man and reap their blessings afterwards.
Edit: if all the other underdogs in the past go down to that route you’re suggesting, we would have missed a ton of great fights because their too busy upping their value first lol
Karma given for a great discussion. It happens all too rarely here and I have enjoyed it. Thank you.
You make a good point on the different markets. Though if all they could pay Wilder was $15M for the fight in the UK it doesn't change the overall point - that Wilder isn't ducking but waiting until there's fair market value for that fight. If a promoter can only afford to pay GGG $2M to fight Canelo again because the fight is in Mexico City that doesn't mean GGG is ducking Canelo. It just means the promoter is being very short-sighted (and that's being kind) and the fighter is waiting for a reasonable offer. That's been the whole point of this thread - this isn't ducking but holding out for a reasonable offer.
You made another good point - perhaps you're more right on DAZN than I've considered in the past. They're throwing around some very large checks in a bet to capture the market. I think that it's a market that's coming back to reality. With HBO pulling out in favor of making their own content, the market got very soft with few choices. DAZN can be seen as a correction to that market and them taking advantage of the lull in the US market to quickly capture market share. So is it a boost or more of a return to normalcy? Perhaps some of both?
Likewise, at times I've given up on his forum due to the sheer volume of trolling but I have enjoyed this discussion.
On the location, I would only say that it may be difficult for US fans to appreciate just how deep the level of suspicion is on both the fairness of scorecards and also other aspects around selection of referee, conditions at the arena etc etc. Most people feel Fury was robbed on just that kind of setup, why would AJ risk that?
Joshua has been fighting in front of 90k in his hometown, he is the number one, unified champion, earns massive revenue outside the ring and has far better alternative options to earn should a Wilder fight not be agreed. Or as US fans have taught us he's the A side. Is a promoter really being short sighted in maintaining this position unless a good reason is provided to abandon it?
So the impetus to move the fight to the US to pursue what was at the time a marginal rise in his purse to accommodate team Wilders desires to maximise return simply wasn't there. AJ makes 60m+ next year without this fight, hes still improving as a fighter, it's not easy to exert leverage on that position. Now of course it looks like they will fight in the US first, but likely on a promotion they control.
On the second point, it's too early to tell if the current bullish activity in US boxing can translate into revenues. Can the PPV model stand alongside the subscription services? Or does something have to give?
Keep pretending about the side money, it doesn’t exist
Okay, so when a Joshua purse goes public for the first time ever on June 1, you will insist that filed purse is accurate too, right? Just want to make sure you're going to be consistent.
You have no way of knowing what he actually gets paid.
Haha back on damage control with your fake news
Keep pretending about the side money, it doesn’t exist, wilder has been exposed as a ducker
Haymon should be addressed too but that’s another issue, he did what’s best for pbc with Shirley by ordering wilder to stay and then down way
More
Money again
This will all blow up, at least Shirley was talking about next year in fighting Joshua, exposing him as not wanting it all along and just putting on an act
What was funny was wilder saying this fight gets made by two teams coming together sat down
This is after them doing a fake offer with a 24 hour deadline via email and social media
Refusing meetings for the fight
Asking for a 2 fight contract at the start before being exposed now with their fans saying that was the reason it did not happen
The public have seen through their lies boy
A clash for the casual American interest, casual Americans aren't going to watch the Povetkin no matter what.
Not only does an afternoon fight not clash with an evening fight, but the fights weren't even on the same day. You're literally making zero sense.
What clash? Why would Wilder be a clash but Povetkin wouldn't be a clash? Doesn't make any sense.
A clash for the casual American interest, casual Americans aren't going to watch the Povetkin no matter what.
The fight wasn't going to be on PPV in the US, so that excuse doesn't hold any water.
They didn't want the clash and didn't Wilder have arm surgery anyway so he couldn't fight as he needed an excuse for getting embarassed by Fury.
Some of his few fans are the wbc guy who was banned are back to spread fake news
Apparently it’s ok to fight for 3m in showtime than Breazeale for 20m on dazn lmao
So I didn't mean to patronise with that last post. I still don't understand how you can't recognise the disruptive effect DAZN's entry has had in the US market because the impact has been obvious way beyond this fight? You think that Canelo deal hasn't changed the landscape?
You say that the DAZN offer is a realistic assessment of his worth but you must be aware that new entrants to mature markets are going to pay more than the going rate and thus drive that rate upwards? Just how much do you think Wilder has been earning for his fights with Ortiz, Stiverne etc. You think $20m for Wilder v Breazeale was always the true market rate? You think he's getting that rate now? Exactly how are they going to recoup that in their broadcasting model if they don't even think it merits PPV status?
Finally, you've repeatedly compared the offers made by Hearn for a fight in the UK to these latest offers for a fight in the US and yet you've never acknowledged the very different market conditions that apply in the two territories. Without significant US broadcast revenues due to the time difference, there's a hard ceiling on those fights and given that they were already close to maxing that market the offers Hearn made were entirely consistent with that ceiling and what the two fighters brought to the table in commercial drawing power and titles etc. At that time the estimates for the fight in the US were comparable.
It looks like Hearn has given up trying to get Wilder to the UK, so of course the offers have changed, but your immediate assumption that it's due to an undervaluing of Wilder's drawing power doesn't take account of a far more fundamental change in the conditions. Namely a change in location and the heating up of the US market in the meantime.
Karma given for a great discussion. It happens all too rarely here and I have enjoyed it. Thank you.
You make a good point on the different markets. Though if all they could pay Wilder was $15M for the fight in the UK it doesn't change the overall point - that Wilder isn't ducking but waiting until there's fair market value for that fight. If a promoter can only afford to pay GGG $2M to fight Canelo again because the fight is in Mexico City that doesn't mean GGG is ducking Canelo. It just means the promoter is being very short-sighted (and that's being kind) and the fighter is waiting for a reasonable offer. That's been the whole point of this thread - this isn't ducking but holding out for a reasonable offer.
You made another good point - perhaps you're more right on DAZN than I've considered in the past. They're throwing around some very large checks in a bet to capture the market. I think that it's a market that's coming back to reality. With HBO pulling out in favor of making their own content, the market got very soft with few choices. DAZN can be seen as a correction to that market and them taking advantage of the lull in the US market to quickly capture market share. So is it a boost or more of a return to normalcy? Perhaps some of both?
You're talking to someone with an economics degree. I didn't say DAZN didn't have an impact. DAZN is just cutting through the BS of the terrible offers and publicly establishing a realistic assessment of the worth.
But the money has always been there for big fights and that's seen time and time again. Wilder's value didn't suddenly jump $25M because DAZN offered it to him. It's just that the offers before from Hearn have consistently been lowballs. They offered AJ $50 and it was a nonstarter - not even worth presenting the deal - because no fighter worth his salt like AJ is going to cap his earnings potential on such a huge fight. Undefeated heavyweight champs with great KO records don't fight every day. The public drools over those kinds of fights and they're always at a premium.
The whole point is that the ducking claims on BOTH sides are entirely horsecrap. They're continuing to build the gate and each side is seeing who blinks first. Eventually that pot of gold will get so large that it won't matter as long as they keep knocking out their opponents.
Wilder has to blink first because at his age his time frame is much shorter. He needs to fight AJ in the next couple of years before he slips to have any chance at the main bout and the inevitable rematch. This fight happens either in November or in 2020 and both guys will make huge bank.
So I didn't mean to patronise with that last post. I still don't understand how you can't recognise the disruptive effect DAZN's entry has had in the US market because the impact has been obvious way beyond this fight? You think that Canelo deal hasn't changed the landscape?
You say that the DAZN offer is a realistic assessment of his worth but you must be aware that new entrants to mature markets are going to pay more than the going rate and thus drive that rate upwards? Just how much do you think Wilder has been earning for his fights with Ortiz, Stiverne etc. You think $20m for Wilder v Breazeale was always the true market rate? You think he's getting that rate now? Exactly how are they going to recoup that in their broadcasting model if they don't even think it merits PPV status?
Finally, you've repeatedly compared the offers made by Hearn for a fight in the UK to these latest offers for a fight in the US and yet you've never acknowledged the very different market conditions that apply in the two territories. Without significant US broadcast revenues due to the time difference, there's a hard ceiling on those fights and given that they were already close to maxing that market the offers Hearn made were entirely consistent with that ceiling and what the two fighters brought to the table in commercial drawing power and titles etc. At that time the estimates for the fight in the US were comparable.
It looks like Hearn has given up trying to get Wilder to the UK, so of course the offers have changed, but your immediate assumption that it's due to an undervaluing of Wilder's drawing power doesn't take account of a far more fundamental change in the conditions. Namely a change in location and the heating up of the US market in the meantime.
nothing in your list matters, casuals dont know any of that, he is no ppv atraction, he could go to a local grocery store and no one will know who he is, and to be honest here in america he will never be an atraction... he is a big atraction in uk ...
Quite obvious that you don't know anything about marketing.
You realize that's what promoters do, don't you?
Joshua is an undefeated gold medalist.
His KO percentage is 95%.
He looks like an Adonis.
He has a great smile and is articulate.
He has two major titles.
He's a Brit.
He's a heavyweight.
This is what we call low hanging fruit. If a promoter can't sell this guy in the US then they couldn't sell water in the desert. Not to mention he's being smart by fighting in Madison Square Garden to raise his US profile.
This is not a difficult task. Just like it shouldn't be hard to sell Wilder to UK fans as the swing-from-the-fences, brash American undefeated HW champion.
nothing in your list matters, casuals dont know any of that, he is no ppv atraction, he could go to a local grocery store and no one will know who he is, and to be honest here in america he will never be an atraction... he is a big atraction in uk ...
joshua is no ppv atraction in the us, period... is a good fight, but nothing else when it comes to ppv...
casuals dont know who joshua is... 1 mill ppvs, yeah right...
You realize that's what promoters do, don't you?
Joshua is an undefeated gold medalist.
His KO percentage is 95%.
He looks like an Adonis.
He has a great smile and is articulate.
He has two major titles.
He's a Brit.
He's a heavyweight.
This is what we call low hanging fruit. If a promoter can't sell this guy in the US then they couldn't sell water in the desert. Not to mention he's being smart by fighting in Madison Square Garden to raise his US profile.
This is not a difficult task. Just like it shouldn't be hard to sell Wilder to UK fans as the swing-from-the-fences, brash American undefeated HW champion.
I disagree.
Fury's fights are generally dull affairs and many in the US believe that his victory against Wlad was a fluke. Then he went crazy and was out of the fight game for 2 1/2 years. So whatever little name recognition he had in the US was gone. Then he fought a couple of club fighters in the UK before drawing with Wilder. He also looks like the homeless guy begging for change down the street in a torn Santa Clause costume.
AJ has been fighting all along, is a gold medalist, looks like an Adonis, holds belts and is now fighting in Madison Square Garden to build his profile in the US. He's a helluva lot easier to sell on a ticket than Fury.
joshua is no ppv atraction in the us, period... is a good fight, but nothing else when it comes to ppv...
casuals dont know who joshua is... 1 mill ppvs, yeah right...
AJ fanboys have defended every duck move hes made...now they are so desperate to deflect that they are actually calling this duck....why are you guys attempting to deflect from AJs duck moves you previously denied?! lol
WILDER WAS ALWAYS FIGHTING BREZEALE NEXT.....i know its tough for you guys to get through your thick, brainless, skulls
hes not letting DAZN have a piece of him with no risk...hes not letting DAZN dictate terms
wilder was fighting brezeale next...and aj was fighting miller next....NOTHING HAS CHANGED
when both of them are done wilder will go to them and demand 50-50 of the fight...and AJ can decide if he wants to duck again or not
NOTHING HAS CHANGED...but some of you are so desperate to paint wilder as a ducker after round after round of duck moves by hearn that you are reaching so sadly and desperately
You have a point, if both win their next fights, we will see who truly wants the fight...hopefully