Fury versus Wilder, shades of Lacy versus Calzaghe
I seldom like to make a bold prediction. I may be eating crow after this one... But to me this fight is, as Berra famously put it "De Ja Vu all over again." This fight reminds me very much of the Jeff, Left Hook Lacy" fight where Lacy was dismantled by Joe Calzaghe. Let me make my case for this similarity.
When Lacy fought Calzaghe Lacy was actually the favorite...American journalists primarily, thought Lacy would win, both men were undefeated. With Calzaghe his hand had been injured against Evans Ashira, making his success an issue, with Fury it is his rate of getting back into the swing of things after a layoff. Wilder could well the favorite going into this fight as well, just as Lacy was.
In both scenarios the puncher is being given a lot of credibility against an opponent who has demonstrated skills in the ring. With Lacy it was felt that his left hook would land and take Calzaghe out, with Wilder it is his right that are to take Fury out. But what are the chances of success? and are these two scenarios compatible?
A big puncher who has footwork, two punching hands that delivered exceptional power, or the ability to set up his attack, would mean an extra worry for the opponent of such a fighter. Lacy had slow feet and little else than a big punch. Wilder really has no reach against Fury, and again, little else than a big punch. Neither Lacy, nor Wilder has a two handed attack, and neither fighter was distinguished defensively.
Meanwhile, while many critique "Slappy" Joe Calzaghe, he had speed, work rate, and had boxed since his youth, hence knew how to move around the ring well. Ditto for Fury...A man with speed, agility, excellent defensive and movement skills. Both men would have to be fighting an incredible fighter indeed, to be concerned about essentially a one punch attack.
Looking at the competition for the two punchers we also get similarities. Neither Lacy, nor Wilder had/has faced fighters with the skill sets, abilities of an opponent like Calzaghe, or Fury. Vanderpool was a solid win for Lacy, just as Ortiz was a solid win for Wilder....but in both cases there seems a biased view on how a solid win predisposed the fighter to do well against a strong opponent.
Punchers are sensational. Lacy was being compared to Mike Tyson when in fact there is a big difference between a guy who has fast feet, a two handed attack, and who studied the game with some of the finest people in his corner, and a guy who came up in the Ammy's, did not have nearly the amount of experience, or talent in his corner, had slow feet, and a one arm attack. Lacy was in fact a troubled kid who was taken under the tutilage of local Floridian coach.
Wilder is being compared to some of the bigger punchers in the heavyweight division. George Foreman for example. But Foreman was mentored by Sonny Liston, one of the best punchers in boxing. George could use his reach, could fight in close, and hurt you with either hand.
meanwhile talented fighters like Calzaghe and Fury are negated. We are told about when the puncher connects what will occur, but seldom consider the ability to avoid a one arm attack with decent footwork and how much a counter punch can make a puncher freeze up.
I think that the boxing public is ready to take a beating again! Just as with Lacy, there is no way Wilder will be able to catch Fury.