Deontay Wilder told TMZ that he could make as much as $100 million in December when he fights Fury.
On the surface, it seems like he is full of sh/t, but lets review the basic projections.
At this rate, the fight is going to sell, but for the basis of the projected principle, we will first focus on domestic PPV buys, PPV Buys in the UK generate substantially less money because the networks and carriers charge almost 60% less than they do in the states.
Wilder/Fury is on pace for 600,000 buys roughly, and that number could sky rocket during the final promotion push for the fight, its the biggest HW fight America has seen since Tyson/Lewis, and it's in Los Angeles, which has not seen a fight like this since Oscar/Shane 1, that is going to drive the live gate with the star power
Then you have the sponsors, who are going to throw down for a high profile HW title fight at the staples center.
If Showtime charges fight fans $70 bucks, and the fight cracks a 700,000 buys, and the world wide distribution rights hit about $40 million the fight itself could generate $100 million easily.
If you factor in the UK money, which is most likely in Fury's favor, the fee the satellite companies take, Wilder is looking at a $40 million dollar payday at a minimum, which is scores beyond what Hearn and AJ were offering.
If the fight cracks a million buys, which is possible, Wilder is looking at $60 million dollar payday conservatively.
If he wins, and the fight defies expectations commercially, it will be impossible to argue that AJ should get a commanding share of the revenue, esp if Wilder made more money than AJ in his last fight.
I can't speak for Stubhub, as those are tickets that were already sold at face value, but on AXS the cheapest lower bowl ticket is $517, and that's high up in the corners. The vast majority of lower bowl tickets were priced at one thousand to two thousand dollars and almost all of the two thousand dollar tickets have sold out. What remains in the lower bowl now is primarily one thousand dollar tickets.
Yeah just went and had a look and that seems to be in line with it all.
I'll be honest though personally... Those ticket prices are a rip off in my eyes.
Are they shutting off the top bowl? If so how many of that 21000 capacity is that?
I can go on AXS and StubHub and buy logo, middle or premier end tickets all bottom bowl for anywhere in-between 340 to 600 dollars. That's alot less than 1-2k.
I can't speak for Stubhub, as those are tickets that were already sold at face value, but on AXS the cheapest lower bowl ticket is $517, and that's high up in the corners. The vast majority of lower bowl tickets were priced at one thousand to two thousand dollars and almost all of the two thousand dollar tickets have sold out. What remains in the lower bowl now is primarily one thousand dollar tickets.
Agree with you that 350,000 is a reasonable estimate for US PPV buys and if they do 500k they should be doing jumping for joy. Obviously no way Wilder can come even close to making 100 million, or 50 million for that matter. He's just talking nonsense to promote a fight.
But I do think the gate will exceed 6 million. They've priced this fight very very high and tickets are still selling well. The lower bowl is mainly 2,000 and 1,000 dollar tickets and most of the lowe bowl smoked. Upper deck had some 75 dollar tickets, but mainly 300 dollar tickets and they smoked too. Average ticket price will be well over 300 dollars. I think they have a chance of doing a 10 million dollar gate, which would be what Joshua & Klitschko did. Even if they fall short, it'll be more than 6 because they went with insane prices for this fight.
I can go on AXS and StubHub and buy logo, middle or premier end tickets all bottom bowl for anywhere in-between 340 to 600 dollars. That's alot less than 1-2k.
There's also an absolute **** ton...I think this fight sells out but it won't be instantaneous by any stretch. Well it already isn't...
There's **** tons of tickets left now the initial furore for tickets has died down . Plenty of time left to shift them all but noones going to tell me this fight carries anywhere near the initial excitement with the paying public that a Joshua fight does.
Good to know we're similar on numbers though. Genuinely conflicted on this in all honesty.. I'd love the fight to do great from a fan perspective and a lover of the sport but I think both men are pricks and are controlled by pricks so a part of me wants it to flop.
Wilder by KO
Canelo Alvarez and Golovkin just did a million homes on PPV; if you honestly think that they were able to convert 100% of the folks who have seen them fight on HBO, you're a fool.
A PPV gets made, and then the word goes out; fight fans, casuals who see the different promo material, general folks who hear about the hype, etc.
And then you have fight parties;
You're comparing two different things lol. Both of those fighters had multiple PPV's behind them and people expected that fight to be a paid platform bout with two PPV ingrained fighters. This is a fighter who has long been available for nothing.. now sitting behind a paywall to fight an opponent that many either don't know or don't particularly want to pay money to see. Very different things. If you want me to break down bit by bit why these two won't sell as well in PPV as you think then i'd be happy to but I'm not going to waste my time on ignorance.
If you think for a single second that the majority of PPV's are bought buy people who see "promo" material or people who "hear about the hype" you're ****ing deluded. I think even you know you're talking bollocks there you're just clawing at what makes wilder seem in the same stratosphere as Joshua / matchroom when it comes to the factors needed to sell big PPV.
Aaahh yes the great US "fight parties"
Those shin digs that seem to happen at every household and matter not one bit because it all still translates to one single buy. You know the type of people in boxing fandom.. not just in the US but across the globe who have fight parties for a PPV? ... The same who have them for non PPV too.
How anybody thinks that even half of the regular showtime viewers translate to paying customers for wilders first PPV is beyond me.
You have an audience who have watched a fighter for many many fights for no cost... He drew in good numbers fighting Ortiz but other than that and stiverne 2 his numbers could never have been transferable to that of a PPV platform.
You then want over 50% of those customers to pay PPV prices in the US for this person's first fight against a fighter who himself is not a significant draw in his home country be it PPV or gate sales? Simply not going to happen.
350k US tops. If it does better they'll have done very well in all honesty in their salesmanship.
The UK fan base numbers will be poor.. certainly when placed against that of Sky numbers.
BT sport is a much less popular platform..this will be its first PPV featuring two fighters who across the board of casual fans making up the majority of the buys in the UK...are unpopular or disliked.
Couple that with the fact it'll be on at 4am in the UK just after payday? Doesn't do well for buys here either. 200k max.
350k X 60 USD - 21 million USD
200k X 20 GBP - 5.25 million USD
Gate - average price is what 300 dollars? - 6 million USD
8 - 10 million. USD for international rights..
+ Sponsors etc..
I'd say the fight generates 45/50 million maximum before you minus taxes and costs etc..
How on earth wilder makes 100 million is beyond me when the fight as a whole barely makes half that
Canelo Alvarez and Golovkin just did a million homes on PPV; if you honestly think that they were able to convert 100% of the folks who have seen them fight on HBO, you're a fool.
A PPV gets made, and then the word goes out; fight fans, casuals who see the different promo material, general folks who hear about the hype, etc.
And then you have fight parties;
I think sometimes people take the things boxing people say too seriously vs thinking why one would say the things they say.
I think Wilder knows this is highly unlikely unless it breaks PPV records left & right. I think he's saying this because a lot of times acting like something is gonna be huge is the play in itself. Casuals are gonna see that & say "oh sh^t I didn't know there was some huge fight going down" & that might make them more inclined to buy the PPV despite not knowing sh^t about either of these guys. Or it might just make them dig a lil deeper into this whole thing, find something interesting or entertaining to them that might get them buying the fight or talking to other non-boxing people about the fight that results in more purchasers.
Or thats what I think when I hear stuff like this that just sounds so off, but its said to a more casual fan/sports fan media source. The way boxers talk about boxing on Jimmy Kimmel is different then how a boxer is gonna talk about boxing on a sports show & thats gonna be different still to how a boxer is gonna talk about boxing to a boxing media guy. And TMZ is a pretty popular mainstream thing these days.
Yea, I just hope he isn't being fed bad info only to be disappointed in the end. If he's just taking ****, then whatever.
... the fight sold a million dollars worth of tickets I less than it's first half hour on sale...
Up gate to $5m, that’s $75m Gross revenue, well off anything that can get Wilder $100m.
It’s all about the PPVs, he won’t get over 1m buys
Gate - average price is what 300 dollars? - 6 million USD
Agree with you that 350,000 is a reasonable estimate for US PPV buys and if they do 500k they should be doing jumping for joy. Obviously no way Wilder can come even close to making 100 million, or 50 million for that matter. He's just talking nonsense to promote a fight.
But I do think the gate will exceed 6 million. They've priced this fight very very high and tickets are still selling well. The lower bowl is mainly 2,000 and 1,000 dollar tickets and most of the lowe bowl smoked. Upper deck had some 75 dollar tickets, but mainly 300 dollar tickets and they smoked too. Average ticket price will be well over 300 dollars. I think they have a chance of doing a 10 million dollar gate, which would be what Joshua & Klitschko did. Even if they fall short, it'll be more than 6 because they went with insane prices for this fight.
Out of clubbers anus by the sound of it....absolute bollocks estimate and has no credibilty what so ever
Yeah you smell like an AJ fan.
Feel free to refute my supposition academically.
Dude are you fuking stupid or what. Not even in your dreams will Wilder come close to making 100 million. Now if you said around 20-25 million then I’d say he has a decent shot at that. But 100 million you are just plain to stupid to know what has to be done to get to that point.
****, Tyson-Lewis didn’t even make that in their super mega fight. But you somehow think a fight with Fury could bring Wilder 100 million.
You newby youngster boxing fans don’t know shhht.
This is the epitome of an idiot.
You ranting and raving about a point I never made.
Nope, nowhere did I publish that Wilder was going to make $100 million, I actually said "on the surface, it seems like he is full of sh/t".
Just hush, it's better to be thought of as a fool, then to open your mouth, and remove all doubt
Ain't that the mfing truth. I can't believe Oscar ain't got Canelo speaking English yet. If he was doing more English speaking media, interacting with famous American people more & showing up on Conan O'Brien or whoevers show the week of the fight he'd be huger than he already is.
I don't get it. Money you don't pick up that was there to be picked up is still money you are throwing away as I see it. I think Joshua has the potential to pass him if he comes to the US because he's doing this basic sh^t that appeals to the masses more.
yeah, when Canelo was first getting big, I always pictured him on Mexican daytime soaps with the cheesy music. And you're 100% right, during the Canelo/GGG 2 buildup my, me and the wife were watching the 24/7 and she immediately went "Jesus, he doesn't even know english?!? How is this guy big around the world?"
How anybody thinks that even half of the regular showtime viewers translate to paying customers for wilders first PPV is beyond me.
You have an audience who have watched a fighter for many many fights for no cost... He drew in good numbers fighting Ortiz but other than that and stiverne 2 his numbers could never have been transferable to that of a PPV platform.
You then want over 50% of those customers to pay PPV prices in the US for this person's first fight against a fighter who himself is not a significant draw in his home country be it PPV or gate sales? Simply not going to happen.
350k US tops. If it does better they'll have done very well in all honesty in their salesmanship.
The UK fan base numbers will be poor.. certainly when placed against that of Sky numbers.
BT sport is a much less popular platform..this will be its first PPV featuring two fighters who across the board of casual fans making up the majority of the buys in the UK...are unpopular or disliked.
Couple that with the fact it'll be on at 4am in the UK just after payday? Doesn't do well for buys here either. 200k max.
350k X 60 USD - 21 million USD
200k X 20 GBP - 5.25 million USD
Gate - average price is what 300 dollars? - 6 million USD
8 - 10 million. USD for international rights..
+ Sponsors etc..
I'd say the fight generates 45/50 million maximum before you minus taxes and costs etc..
How on earth wilder makes 100 million is beyond me when the fight as a whole barely makes half that
Struggling with your calcs.
Million buys at $60 -> $60m
Gate is $1m
Sponsership - $5m-10m
Best case scenario total gross of $71m.
Remove the commissions etc left with $50m.
Fury probably demands $20m
Wilder left with $30m
That’s best case scenerio.
Good figures nonetheless
Your struggling with my "calcs" because your not reading.
At what point did I state that the principle was predicated upon $60 bucks per a PPV buy?
Floyd-Canelo wasn't on Sky Box Office?
And what was the believed number for Floyd-mcgregor?
Floyd/Canelo was on Boxnation. It wasn't really a big fight in the UK, tbh, and it was on around 4am UK time.
I checked the numbers for Floyd/McGregor at the BARB a couple of weeks ago. I don't remember the exact figure but it was around 850K.
Edit: I just checked the Floyd/McGregor number - 874K.
But Sky Box Office goes out to the Republic of Ireland as well as the UK. If the Irish numbers are not included in the BARB rating, it would have done over a million in total, I'm sure.
Floyd/Mcgregor didn't do a million PPVs in the UK. Canelo has never had a fight on Sky PPV.
Floyd-Canelo wasn't on Sky Box Office?
And what was the believed number for Floyd-mcgregor?
I acknowledge that. As popular or non popular Fury is, Floyd-Hatton, Floyd-Pacquiao, Floyd-mcgregor, and I believe Alvarez all did over 1m homes in the UK on Sky Box Office.
Is assuming that Wilder-Fury draws half of that some drastic overestimation?
Two heavyweights, in the prime of their lives, who the British have seen fight many times?
I don't think so
Floyd/Mcgregor didn't do a million PPVs in the UK. Canelo has never had a fight on Sky PPV.
... the fight sold a million dollars worth of tickets I less than it's first half hour on sale...
thank you for doing research, a rack of posters on this thread did not take the time to do the same.