It Don't Look Good For Saul/Lil G

It's simple arithmetic, dawg. You're purposely making things complicated. At 350K PPV, for $80, they'll have $28 mil. More than enough to cover their guarantees as well as production and promotion expenses. We're only talking about the break even point. Seems at 350K they still would have earned a bit. Guarantees are exactly what they say they are, guarantees. The 70/30 actually have no meaning. It's only meaningful when they exceed the break even point. If nothing is added to the break even point, they'll live with it. No one is sued, no one lost money. I haven't even added the live gates.

They'll break even at around 300-350K. The PPV is priced at $80. They're not as greedy. TBE was already expecting $300 mil even before the PPVs were counted. LOL. How can Showtime even break even with such greed? As far as Canelo vs Lil g, they are probably OK purse-wise without a single PPV- reportedly the live gate has sold out to the tune of 30M. That would basically cover the purses. As far as May-Mac, they should be good as well. Lets do the math: Both Canelo and Lil g are guaranteed 15M, with a 70/30 split on the over. Not counting the live gate, that means they need to sell about 840K buys to cover the purses. I don't think they will get there, but the live gate will certainly cover things. Allegedly, May-Mac sold at least as much as May-Pac. That means 4.6M buys. Which means the guaranteed purses of 100M and 30M are more than covered. Even without the 80M from the live gate- which we know Floyd takes most or all of.

I think the fight will do over 1.5 Million for sure.

Well, it's no secret that Ward hasn't had the best promotion during a HOF career and that shows. But, that still doesn't mean he wouldn't deserve 50-50 if he fought Lil g, who has had his own PPV fiascos. Nice of you to try and put words in my mouth about Charlo, but IMO he is unproven at 160 and would need to wait his turn or beat someone better than a crippled fringe contender. I hope you and others are right about the fight doing 1M or more. I would love to be wrong about this. But, as I said in the OP, all the signs for a disappointing number are there. We just had a fight suck half a billion dollars out of the pockets of the general public. I don't know if there is much left to spend so soon. The PPV model is dying. There is too much piracy and streaming to be had for free. Or just watch it on youtube the next day. Add to the mix that fans have been burned by too many boring or uneventful PPV fights and fans are speaking with their wallets. Ward can't fill an arena in his own hometown, so I'm not sure he is worth 50% of the take versus GGG. Neither of them need the other for any reason, so it's all a big nothing.

I heard 15M guaranteed for both with a 70/30 split Which means they need to do about 900K buys (if you include gate and sponsors and minus expenses) to break even. I am not sure they get there. They'll break even at around 300-350K. The PPV is priced at $80. They're not as greedy. TBE was already expecting $300 mil even before the PPVs were counted. LOL. How can Showtime even break even with such greed?

As already mentioned, it really doesn't matter. People behind this fight are not as greedy as in the circus fight. $10 million guarantees tops for both. Ten times less. And the PPV is not priced with the ridiculous amount of $100. Don't even know if Showtime even broke even. Espinoza just loves putting millions of dollars in his idol's pockets to the detriment of their regular boxing department. Look at the number of fighters that are languishing in their shelves. I heard 15M guaranteed for both with a 70/30 split Which means they need to do about 900K buys (if you include gate and sponsors and minus expenses) to break even. I am not sure they get there.

As already mentioned, it really doesn't matter. People behind this fight are not as greedy as in the circus fight. $10 million guarantees tops for both. Ten times less. And the PPV is not priced with the ridiculous amount of $100. Don't even know if Showtime even broke even. Espinoza just loves putting millions of dollars in his idol's pockets to the detriment of their regular boxing department. Look at the number of fighters that are languishing in their shelves.

Bradley-Marquez did 375k buys? At what point in time would that fight have ever done more? That's a great number for those two.

Considering Wards fights with Kovalev only pulled down about 130K PPV buys, I'd say GGG/Canelo is in good shape. So if fans such as yourself put a lot of stock into PPV numbers, then Ward still doesn't measure up in terms of earnings potential. He will want a 50/50 split with GGG when he only brings 10% of the revenue to the fight. Its all moot though, Ward won't drop down to 168 or below to fight him anyhow. Next you'll want to plug Charlo, but honestly, where is the incentive to fight him if you judge opponents by their PPV potential? Canelo/GGG will do at least one million buys, most of that on the draw of Canelo and the Mexican fanbase. But, it will elevate GGGs potential and status if he gives a good showing. Well, it's no secret that Ward hasn't had the best promotion during a HOF career and that shows. But, that still doesn't mean he wouldn't deserve 50-50 if he fought Lil g, who has had his own PPV fiascos. Nice of you to try and put words in my mouth about Charlo, but IMO he is unproven at 160 and would need to wait his turn or beat someone better than a crippled fringe contender. I hope you and others are right about the fight doing 1M or more. I would love to be wrong about this. But, as I said in the OP, all the signs for a disappointing number are there. We just had a fight suck half a billion dollars out of the pockets of the general public. I don't know if there is much left to spend so soon.

No hate to shove, Scrappy Doo. PPV numbers have a role in which fights get made and which ones don't. For example, Lil g's peeps cited Ward's lack of drawing power as one of several reasons the fight didn't happen. So, it is important when discussing the sport. In this case, low PPV is going to hurt one fighter a lot more than it will the other. Couple that with a loss, and this could be the end of the road for that guy. all you always say is negative or borderline negative with hating.

No hate to shove, Scrappy Doo. PPV numbers have a role in which fights get made and which ones don't. For example, Lil g's peeps cited Ward's lack of drawing power as one of several reasons the fight didn't happen. So, it is important when discussing the sport. In this case, low PPV is going to hurt one fighter a lot more than it will the other. Couple that with a loss, and this could be the end of the road for that guy. Considering Wards fights with Kovalev only pulled down about 130K PPV buys, I'd say GGG/Canelo is in good shape. So if fans such as yourself put a lot of stock into PPV numbers, then Ward still doesn't measure up in terms of earnings potential. He will want a 50/50 split with GGG when he only brings 10% of the revenue to the fight. Its all moot though, Ward won't drop down to 168 or below to fight him anyhow. Next you'll want to plug Charlo, but honestly, where is the incentive to fight him if you judge opponents by their PPV potential? Canelo/GGG will do at least one million buys, most of that on the draw of Canelo and the Mexican fanbase. But, it will elevate GGGs potential and status if he gives a good showing.

I expect a bit over a million. Canelo has some juice with the Mexican crowd, but GGG is good for like 100-200k.

I am very glad you told us this but since I do not earn a cent I could not care less other than hoping the fight is a great fight. In the meantime, please shove your hate down your throat since your arse seems to be full. No hate to shove, Scrappy Doo. PPV numbers have a role in which fights get made and which ones don't. For example, Lil g's peeps cited Ward's lack of drawing power as one of several reasons the fight didn't happen. So, it is important when discussing the sport. In this case, low PPV is going to hurt one fighter a lot more than it will the other. Couple that with a loss, and this could be the end of the road for that guy.

I am very glad you told us this but since I do not earn a cent I could not care less other than hoping the fight is a great fight. In the meantime, please shove your hate down your throat since your arse seems to be full.

There's no correlation. It has to do with the match up and names. But anyway I already predicted this fight will do 650-750k, 800k tops, which to me is great. It has nothing to do with May-McGregor. It has more to do with Canelo really doing most of the heavy lifting in bringing in fans to pay for the fight. GGG is not a superstar who brings PPV buys. People predicting 1million or 1 million+ are being unrealistic and they expect Canelo and his Latino fanbase to do a lot of PPV buying which could not even happen with the 900k for Canelo-Cotto, a bigger money fight with two big names, and two huge fanbases that drive PPV sales high every time they clash, rather than just 1 fighter and some guy from Kazakhstan. Exactly. Two of the biggest names in boxing couldn't break 1M. Add to that May-Mac scooping up a lot of casual money (with a lot of those casuals once again disappointed that Floyd yet again failed to get his ass kicked). This thing is going to tank badly. Without the freak show Aug 26th, there is no doubt in my mind it would have got near or topped 1M. Now? No way that happens.

If history is any indicator, the fight is going to tank...and badly. Floyd/DLH did 2.4M buys. The next PPV fight after (Pac/Barerra II) did 350K buys. Floyd/Canelo did 2.2M buys. The PPV fight after that (Bradley/Marquez) did 375K buys. Floyd/Pac did 4.6M buys. The next PPV fight (Floyd/Berto) did 400K buys. The projections for Floyd/Mac, even by haters, has it over 4M buys. Which means Canelo/Lil G might be in trouble. I will go on record right now as predicting it does under a million buys. Under a million buys? Wow you are nostradum...not. ffs you idiot, obviously its going to do less than a mill, the big prediction is whether or not it does 500k.

LOL at these fake fans praying too hard to see this real fight fail in the box office, while supporting and defending a fake fight between an amateur and the so-called best ever in boxing. With or without your support, this fight would do well. Besides, the people behind it, promoters, fighters, network, are not as greedy. It won't cost you a ridiculous amount of $100. I don't even see any reason why people would want to boycott this fight. You're on the wrong side, fellas.

Pacquiao hadn't become "known" when the Barrera fight was signed. Up to that point he hadn't fought anybody worth mentioning. Bradley was getting picked on by boxing smarks who blamed him for the PacBradley judging and a Provodnikov fight those same smarks felt he lost. It's Andre Berto. It wasn't going to end well. The only way Floyd was going to exceed the Pacquiao number was to rematch Pacquiao and he knew that. I say 1.5 million+. Reason: It's Canelo. His whole country will watch him fight. 1.5MM is my prediction too, don't see it not at least exceeding 1.2MM of Chavez-Canelo. I'm curious to see how much of a push there is in the final two weeks in marketing.

If history is any indicator, the fight is going to tank...and badly. Floyd/DLH did 2.4M buys. The next PPV fight after (Pac/Barerra II) did 350K buys. Floyd/Canelo did 2.2M buys. The PPV fight after that (Bradley/Marquez) did 375K buys. Floyd/Pac did 4.6M buys. The next PPV fight (Floyd/Berto) did 400K buys. The projections for Floyd/Mac, even by haters, has it over 4M buys. Which means Canelo/Lil G might be in trouble. I will go on record right now as predicting it does under a million buys. And thats when streaming was no where as popular as it is today

you don't count to good brother. 4 million ppv at $100 = 400 million Floyd contract 100 million conor contract 30 million that's 270 million left. thats double what they paid and that's not counting the actual gate, movie theater tickets, merchandise, concessions Showtime is winning Floyd actually gets a cut of the ppv , gate and merchandise.