My thoughts on why Floyd Mayweather will beat Canelo Alvarez.
Floyd has taken a different approach to his training. He is not eating that fast food almost every night trying to gain like he did before the Cotto fight. Floyd was Floyd in that fight in the end, but I don't believe he respected Cotto until after the fight.
Floyd got hit by hard jabs from Cotto. Cotto even though he lacks a right hand, is a very good pure boxer who has tagged everyone he has faced win or lose...including Floyd and Pac.
Floyd really had no head movement in that fight. The skills that Floyd always had eventually kicked in, and Floyd's speed wound up being too much for Cotto. I don't believe Floyd was 100% into the Cotto fight mentally. There just wasn't any motivation, imo. Canelo presents motivation because he is young, and a threat early in the fight, and he can fight a bit.
Canelo Alvarez is is not your typical Mexican fighter, and I mean that with the highest respect. He can box, he's elusive, and he is a good body puncher.
He can box, and he has head movement. He still has the left hook to the body, but he also has a good right hand. Canelo's combos lack power on the inside, but when he's stalking, he gets pretty good leverage on his shots, and they are sharp punches. Canelo is not a guy who will make you miss and counter. He will make you miss and get back to center ring-smart.
Canelo also has a good uppercut. Against smaller guys he lands that uppercut. Canelo is totally inexperienced when compared to Floyd. The Trout fight was fools gold because Trout showed us that Canelo CAN be hit with the jab. Trout is one of those converted guys. Olusegun is a converted southpaw. Andre Ward is a converted fighter. I don't have faith in those kind of fighters.
Canelo is a true orthodox fighter with a GOOD JAB, and he has good delivery of his punches but...imo he is just too slow for Floyd. He will be fast early, but he's slows down, and that is where NOT being that typical Mexican fighter can hurt him. But we always find something out from guys in big fights like this. Maybe Canelo can surprise but...
Canelo has never fought against a fighter who values his defense just as much as he values his offense. Floyd is 36, but he is a well preserved 36.
Floyd looked better in the Guerrero fight. He didn't get hit solid, but he did get hit with some grazing shots. Guerrero was a dangerous southpaw who loves to fight on the inside regardless of what fans thought, and Floyd had little to no trouble against him. Floyd can see everything coming from an orthodox fighter, and he knows how to roll those shots.
I expect Floyd to be a lil more flat footed for this fight starting from the mid to latter rounds. He may even start that process early. It depends on how Canelo attacks. I do believe Canelo will slow down. Whether he does slow down or not doesn't matter imo. Floyd is just too elusive. Canelo will have to gain Floyd's respect early. I know it sounds simple, but to beat the champ you have to gain his respect. Id Canelo can do that, he will force Floyd to come to him, and bigger guys love that when fighting smaller guys.
What I like about this fight is that Canelo will land a good shot, and Floyd always wants to come back with his own good shots when hit. Canelo better be ready to go 12 hard rounds, because even though he's the bigger man, he has never fought 12 hard rounds where he had to be on his toes the entire 12 rounds-Floyd has.
Floyd will look gangly in that ring with Canelo, and Canelo will look stocky. Floyd was a 5'8 1/2 sfw. Crazy right? He's a 5'8 1/2 jmw....taller than Canelo. Canelo will look a full weight class bigger than Floyd, but it won't matter.
What to look for from both guys:
Canelo's conditioning, jab and right uppercut.
Floyds jab, his inside fighting, and blazing right hand lead. Floyd's blazing left hook is gone forever. It's now a hook to the body.
Canelo's left hook to the head or body will not be a big factor unless he can gain Floyd's respect early because Floyds style is tailormade to block those shots. Floyd has faith in his chin and shoulder roll, but he can be hit, and hit clean up top. So far Floyd has shown a tremendous chin. Canelo will have to set Floyd up to land that his big right.
Who wins?
Floyd's hands are terrible which at times prevents him from going for the ko, and I expect a UD from Floyd in this fight. Canelo should come out unscathed, but if he runs out of steam, he could be stopped. I hope Big Bear was good to Canelo.
Floyd UD in 12...!