Hi guys, this is my first posted thread. I don't consider myself any type of boxing expert, just a fan and student of the game.
I'm looking for betting value on the Murray/Mitchell domestic dust up this weekend, and after studying their professional records, all the youtube fights I could find, considering their styles, and avoiding all pre hype buildup, the only sticking point I can find (not based on who I think will win, but betting value) is whether Mitchell has recovered from what must have been a loss of confidence from the Katsidis blowout at Upton.
As an experienced gambler in other betting fields, the price of 6/1 for Mitchell when compared to 11/8 for Murray for the KO/TKO/DQ seems far too big of a gap given their KO records.
To my point
How much of an effect (in boxing terms) do these devastating losses have on these fighters, and do they tend to do well when they don't take tuneup fights? Khan took on Fagan for confidence, as I felt Hatton did with Lazcano, before they went on to fight tougher opponents. But on the flipside De La Hoya took on Mayorga after Hopkins.
Is Khan the modern day exception to bounce back so well from a brutal KO? I don't have a good enough knowledge of the global boxing scene to make an educated opinion on it, so I leave it in your expert hands :fing02:
Some bounce back and become better, some bounce back and have some solid wins but never fully recover. Others don't really do sh!t after their first loss.
Pacquiao obviously did well after his first 2 losses, both by KO. Fernando Vargas and Meldrick Taylor had some success and good performances after their first losses (Taylor more so than Vargas), but neither of them were 100% of what they had been. It looks to be the same for Cotto.
Barrera went 2-1 against Morales and beat Hamed all after his two losses to Junior Jones. DQ Technicalities aside, Jones stopped him.
Hearns had pretty much all but one of his biggest wins after he was stopped by Leonard. Benitez, Duran, Hill.
amir khan
went from a fast puncher with a glass chin
to a super fast boxer with deceptive knockout power
stunning fast combos
and a good (if not great) chin- mainly down to superior conditioning
not quite on pacman's level
but maybe........just maybe
You are really, really overrating Khan. He's unlikely to be anything more than a decent champion/title-holder. He's done a nice job at bouncing back from the Prescott debacle but his skills and ring IQ are really lacking for a guy who some expect to be some P4P star.
Shane after losing to both Vernon and Winky. he went on to win titles
most people dont though. JT, PWill, Tito, Vargas, Hatton, Lacy etc. Alexander not looking to good lately
we are yet to see JuanMa, Kirkland,
Pac came back from losses and its looked upon as somehow suprising or suspicious. But its more common than anyone might think. Yes Wlad comes instantly to mind. Haye came back from a TKO at least and came back better.
You missed 2 weeks ago when some UK Bookies had Haye and Wlad as 50/50 when Wlad shouldve been 6/1 , lots of ppl made money off that bet.
Mitchell has only 1 Decision win in his last 10 fights. Rest have been KO.
I dont know how good Murrays chin is, I would avoid this fight but if I had say $100 to bet I would do 75$ Mitchell straight up win and 25$ Mitchell by KO
See, told you those UK bookies dont know what they talking about, I bet only $30 on Mitchell by KO but got 7/1 odds :) Like I said in previous post, these bookies buy into the hype too much, thx 4 da $180 profit bruv!
Ortiz bounced back, Khan bounced back, Wladimir bounced back, Darchinyan bounced back ... Several guy have bounced back from bad loses, but hey, a loss is not the end of the world.
The most important thing when coming off a loss is to be mentally strong, and that is a problem for most boxers, especially when they believe the things that media says about them when they are still "good". Media and people make some boxers believe that they are the best and that there is no way they can lose, but when they do, they are not strong enough to take it and sometimes they just crumble, a perfect example is Kelly Pavlik. Pavlik was the best middleweight, undefeated and praised. He lost against Hopkins, but hey no problem, the fight was at 170 pounds, a lot more than Pavlik was used to. Then he got Rubio and beat him and he believed he was the best again, and then he was defeated again by Martinez and well we all know how that ended.
Some guys on the other hand learn from their defeats, such as Wladimir. The guy had flaws in his game, and realized that he had to change his style if he was going to be a great boxer. Wlad is as good as he is because his loses helped him to improve.
About the tune up fights, IDK, as I've said it's about being mentally strong. Some guys can comeback without a tune up fight against difficult boxers, for example Montiel, he lost against Nonito and returned against Cermeño. Some others need tune ups to regain confidence, so there is not a certain rule about this.
IMO most boxers should get a tune up fight to regain confidence because they're not enough mentally strong, but there are some exceptions that can return and fight against strong boxers.
i think it depends where theyre at in ther career i.e hatton vargas late in their careers harder to accept defeat ad bounce back ..pac ortiz ,kahn all earlier gainst lesser opponents ..better chance of bouncing back
You missed 2 weeks ago when some UK Bookies had Haye and Wlad as 50/50 when Wlad shouldve been 6/1 , lots of ppl made money off that bet.
Mitchell has only 1 Decision win in his last 10 fights. Rest have been KO.
I dont know how good Murrays chin is, I would avoid this fight but if I had say $100 to bet I would do 75$ Mitchell straight up win and 25$ Mitchell by KO
A good mate of mine strongly tipped Wlad on points for months, he had at least £200 on (that we knew about) at around 5/1 on the net, he surmised that based on looking at the cold facts, instead of being seduced by all the rubbish spouted before the fight. So whilst all the drunks were flying in the bookies to bet on Haye round 4,5 and 6, he saw the value.
Good points made there! Agreed.
Cheers for the responses lads, totally overlooked Klitschko and Ortiz (I've watched the HBO highlights of the latter, and it seems like he's been in some wars).
Not exactly, the 6/1 odds are on the KO/TKO/DQ, so if its going to points it would be a losing bet, the best I've found on the high street bookies in England for a Decision win (Mitchell) is 7/2. Looking at both their records (and I know these fighters come up against some crap early in their career), Mitchell has the higher KO count (23) to Murray's 18. So that price of 6/1 seems like it should be closer to 3/1-7/2, whether it pays off is irrelevant, key to gambling is to look for value and bet accordingly.
My strategy in betting is to heavily study a market and look for genuine value, so theoretically in the long run you win because you find the best prices. And I have been pulling a very good profit when sticking to these rules!
You missed 2 weeks ago when some UK Bookies had Haye and Wlad as 50/50 when Wlad shouldve been 6/1 , lots of ppl made money off that bet.
Mitchell has only 1 Decision win in his last 10 fights. Rest have been KO.
I dont know how good Murrays chin is, I would avoid this fight but if I had say $100 to bet I would do 75$ Mitchell straight up win and 25$ Mitchell by KO
Cheers for the responses lads, totally overlooked Klitschko and Ortiz (I've watched the HBO highlights of the latter, and it seems like he's been in some wars).
So if you getting 6 to 1 odds that Mitchell will win? Those are great odds, this fight should be a 50/50 fight, both their records are complete crap but the Loss on Mitchell's record is better than anything on Murray's
Not exactly, the 6/1 odds are on the KO/TKO/DQ, so if its going to points it would be a losing bet, the best I've found on the high street bookies in England for a Decision win (Mitchell) is 7/2. Looking at both their records (and I know these fighters come up against some crap early in their career), Mitchell has the higher KO count (23) to Murray's 18. So that price of 6/1 seems like it should be closer to 3/1-7/2, whether it pays off is irrelevant, key to gambling is to look for value and bet accordingly.
My strategy in betting is to heavily study a market and look for genuine value, so theoretically in the long run you win because you find the best prices. And I have been pulling a very good profit when sticking to these rules!
Sometimes a loss is a good thing for a fighter. It humbles them, and forces them to focus on their flaws. Wladimir Klitschko comes to mind. He had back to back devastating KO losses and he had to do some introspection but ultimately he bounced back and now he's damn near unbeatable. He rededicated and reinvented himself..
Kevin Mitchell Opponents Records: 429 Wins - 341 loses = 20.50% Winning %
He has 13 Wins against guys with LOSING records.
John Murray Opponents Records: 446 Wins - 682 Loses = -52.9% Winning % (LOL more like losing %)
12 Wins against guys with losing records.
So if you getting 6 to 1 odds that Mitchell will win? Those are great odds, this fight should be a 50/50 fight, both their records are complete crap but the Loss on Mitchell's record is better than anything on Murray's
Honestly man that’s hard to answer, it really depends on the fighters themselves. Pac early in his career has been KO’d and bounced backed remarkably, Fernando Vargas on the other hand was ruined after Tito!
Victor Ortiz is the best of recent years. Assuming he learned his lesson, and will no longer back up and try (and fail) to box.
Its not too common, mainly becuz a lot of fighters (especially as of late) were really just overhyped to begin with
Oh, KHAN... forgot about him. He's probably the best example
14y ago
How often do boxers bounce back from devastating losses? | BoxingScene Community