10 Upcoming Mismatches and the Chance of Upset

We discuss the chance of Ten Upcoming Mismatches and the potential for upset here: http://theboxingempire.blogspot.com/2011/02/risky-business-subpar-matchups-for.html What do you think? Here is the text of the article: Risky Business: Subpar Matchups for Boxing's Stars While we were still shoveling out our car, several big deals have been made or at least being in discussion. And it's not those odd side deals that you later find out about; we're talking about the big names. Unfortunately for us, in most cases it's Big Name against little name. The theme of the first half of 2011 with the exception of the Bantamweight Finals, Super Six Semifinals and the Bradley-Alexander dud, appears to be beating up on lesser competition. But there is always a fun side to all of this supposed risky business. What if one of these little guys comes to fight, and pulls the upset? So in the spirits of Brian Vera, we're taking a look at upcoming seemingly lopsided fights and putting out TheBoxingEmpire Upset-o-Meter. We're evaluating the fights on this scale: = No Chance for the Upset = Mild Chance of an Upset = This one could be Ripe for an Upset! *A note on BoDog Odds: The + number means that a $100 bet wins you that much, while the - number means you would have to bet that amount to win $100. Ten Upcoming Lopsided Fights 1. Miguel Cotto vs. Ricardo Mayorga (March 12th, Showtime PPV) Hits: Cotto hasn't looked the same in awhile and Margarito a big puncher Misses: Mayorga rusty and hasn't had a fight of note since Vargas What's at Stake: Cotto missing out on a PPV rematch with Margarito BoDog Odds: Cotto -1200; Mayorga +600 Even Tigger says Mayorga takes a beating on this one. Our Take: Mayorga gets clobbered 2. Sergio Martinez vs. Sergei Dzinziruk (March 12th, HBO) Hits: Don't sleep on Dzinziruk. He's slick, undefeated and solid with a notable W over Joel Julio. Misses: Martinez has simply looked unstoppable as of late. What's at Stake: Martinez is the hottest man in boxing right now. And we're not just talking looks. BoDog Odds: N/A Our Take: Martinez may come in overconfident, making Dzinziruk ripe for the upset 3. Lucian Bute vs. Brian Magee (March 19th, Showtime) Hits: Scorecards were somewhat close when Magee was KO'd by Froch in the 11th round in 2006. Misses: Bute is racking up W's at Super Middleweight and Knocking them out too. What's at Stake: A future showdown with Andre Ward the Super Six Winner. BoDog Odds: Bute -1200, Magee +600 Our Take: Magee has some power and could be overlooked, but Bute should prevail 4. Vitali Klitschko vs. Odlanier Solis (March 26th) Hits: Odlanier Solis is a slick Cuban Gold Medalist. Misses: Solis had a close one with Ray Austin, who Vitali's brother crushed in 2 rounds. What's at Stake: A bout with Adamek or David "Sir Ducksalot" Haye BoDog Odds: N/A Our Take: Klitschko wins for sure, but Solis may give him some trouble 5. Juan Manuel Lopez vs. Orlando Salido (April 16th, Showtime) Hits: Salido gave Gamboa some trouble and has some experience under his belt. Misses: Salido has 11 losses, is coming off a loss to Gamboa, and pressure is for JuanMa to shine. What's at Stake: A division-defining matchup against Yuriorkis Gamboa BoDog Odds: N/A Our Take: JuanMa aims to destroy him in front of a hometown crowd in Puerto Rico 6. Andre Berto vs. Victor Ortiz (potentially on April 16th, HBO - NOT FINAL) Hits: Ortiz is very solid competition and Berto hasn't exactly fought the best of the best. Misses: Ortiz moving up and Berto still young and hungry. What's at Stake: A possible shot at Pacquiao, Mayweather or the Bradley-Khan winner. BoDog Odds: N/A. Our Take: Don't sleep on Ortiz, this one is FAR from a gimme 7. Amir Khan vs. Paul McCloskey (April 16th, HBO) Hits: McCloskey young and hungry, tweeted his way to this fight and has a killer uppercut Misses: Paul McWho? What's at Stake: A pound-for-pound matchup against Bradley with the winner taking on Pac or Floyd. BoDog Odds: N/A Our Take: Then again, we hadn't heard of Breidis Prescott either 8. Tomasz Adamek vs. Kevin McBride (April 23rd) Hits: Adamek is small and the 6'6 Kevin McBride beat Mike Tyson!!!!... Misses: ...way past Tyson's prime. What's at Stake: A shot against Vitali Klitschko, Wladimir Klitschko, or both BoDog Odds: N/A. Our Take: Does size really matter? Don't worry Tomasz, we don't think so 9. Wladimir Klitschko vs. Dereck Chisora (April 30th) Hits: Chisora is young, hungry and undefeated. Misses: Chisora has never faced a Klitschko, who has cleaned out the division but for duckers. What's at Stake: Adamek or Ducker BoDog Odds: Klitschko -1500, Chisora + 750 Our Take: The two-headed Klitschko monster is simply unstoppable 10. Manny Pacquiao vs. Shane Mosley (May 7th, Showtime PPV) Hits: Shane is old, established and powerful. Misses: Shane is old, looked horrible against Mora and Mayweather, and may just want a payday What's at Stake: What we've all been waiting for: Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao BoDog Odds: Pacquiao -675, Mosley +475 Our Take: Yeah yeah, we know Manny will win. Maybe Shane will take his Viagra. What do you think? Are we leaving someone out? Are we not seeing one of these upsets? Respond below in the comments.

Comments (14)

Who should Martinez fight next?

15y ago

TheBoxingEmpire

When I said "mismatch" I mainly meant a fight with a substantial favorite. Unlike Bradley-Alexander, where Bradley was a slight favorite, these fights involve Much clearer favorites. Ortiz and Dzinziruk aside, the rest of these fights I don't believe will be even close. AdditionallY, i didn't include Abraham-Ward because it's a tournament. The fights above were made with no real outside pressure except for mandatories

15y ago

Bushbaby

Cotto-Mayorga=Good chance of an upset.Cotto's never been outboxed,but he sure can be outfought & that's what Mayorga's size advantage can do. Martinez-Dzinziruk=Dzinziruk has at least a 40% chance in this fight,he's undefeated,has the fundamentals down & Martinez keeps his hands too low. Bute-Magee=Don't know much about Magee,but if he has good power,I always think about Andrade 1 & believe if someone is willing to walk through fire,Bute can be beaten by big-time ko. Vitali-Solis=I think the #1 heavyweight wins in a solid fight. Lopez-Solido=Gamboa respected this man & didn't try to look flashy,Lopez better do the same,he should win,but I'm not sold on it 100%. Berto-Ortiz=Berto is supposed to win this,but if Ortiz can somehow benefit from the extra weight,I'd give him a 40% chance of pulling the upset. Khan-Mcclosky=I never seen Mc,but he's Khan's size & anyone that big has some chance of pulling the upset,if the power is good. Adamek-Mcbride=I don't have a clue. Wlad-Chisora=Don't have a clue,but should be interesting,if Chisora can work that body,he might look good losing. Pacman-Mosley=Pacman is supposed to win,I hope Mosley pulls a Margarito here.

15y ago

rochemback

I dunno about ALL the opponents of these fighters, but most of them. Many are sleeping on Salido, and I guess they know more than me. But I'm hesitant to just go "all in" with Juanma on this one. Salido is known to be tough, whether he offers Juanma problems (offensively) is a different story. Yeah, I'm not saying Salido will beat Juanma, that would be a huge upset, but he could give him trouble like Mtagwa. The guy did go the distance with Gamboa after all... This (could give him trouble, but not necessarily) is more than I would say about Mayorga vs Cotto, Magee vs Bute, McCloskey vs Khan, McBride vs Adamek, Chisora vs Wlad and Solis (if he'd get in shape, it would be different) vs Vitali...

15y ago

TintaBoricua

Martinez-Dzinziruk and Berto-Ortiz are no mismatches, and neither is Pac-Mosley on the same scale as the other bouts. Cotto, Bute, the Klitschkos, Khan and Adamek are very safe bets, Juanma probably has the most dangerous and live opponent out of the heavily favoured fighters. I dunno about ALL the opponents of these fighters, but most of them. Many are sleeping on Salido, and I guess they know more than me. But I'm hesitant to just go "all in" with Juanma on this one. Salido is known to be tough, whether he offers Juanma problems (offensively) is a different story.

15y ago

rochemback

15y ago

Silencers

Cotto-Mayorga has little chance of creating an upset. Mayorga could barely get away from any jabs from Michael Walker and was even stunned by Walker when he was hit by an overhand right. Cotto will destroy Mayorga IMO even thoug he's the smaller man. I think Martinez-Dzinziruk is a bad styles matchup for Dzinziruk, European fighters have a very hard time with guys like Martinez, who are quick, well skilled and most importantly IMO, unpredictable. European fighters don't do too well against fighters who are awkward and can improvise on the fly. Bute is just a level or two above Magee, no upset happening there IMO. I think Solis has as good a shot to beat Vitali as anyone in the division who is not named David Haye right now, the guy is very talented and has outstanding skills, the problem is he doesn't seem to have the devotion as a pro. But if he does show up in the best shape he can possibly be in, I can actually see him causing a pretty big upset. But if he shows up in the shape he's been in in his last few fights, he doesn't have much chance. Salido is tough but doesn't stand much of a chance, he can take a good shot and might make Juanma use his skills a bit more in this fight but Salido isn't much of a threat. Berto-Ortiz isn't a mismatch at all, if Ortiz manages to connect, I think he can knock Berto out, Ortiz just has to find his 'viciousness' back, he's been fighting too scared his last few fights. McCloskey is awkward so he might be able to make Khan look bad for a few rounds before Khan adjusts to his style. McCloskey's awkwardness might keep him in the fight and might actually make some fans because of it but he won't beat Khan. Adamek-McBride. McBride gets knocked out. McBride had trouble dealing with speedy guys at his peak, he's only gotten slower and easier to hit since. I think Klitschko-Chisora will basically be another Klitschko whitewash, Chisora is too inexperienced and not well skilled enough to get to Klitschko. Pacquiao-Mosley is interesting, maybe it's because I have a soft spot for Mosley but I still don't think he should be counted out of this fight, especially early. The power is still there and he managed to catch the very elusive Mayweather. He didn't look good at all against Mora but Mora was a weight division or two bigger than him and they were fighting at 154 which I have always said was a bad division for Mosley. But really, don't count Mosley out, he's showing signs of aging but I don't think he's shot, he's slower but he's still quick and the power is always a danger.

15y ago

Motofan

1. Miguel Cotto vs. Ricardo Mayorga = No Chance of an upset. 2. Sergio Martinez vs. Sergei Dzinziruk = Mild Chance of an upset. 3. Lucian Bute vs. Brian Magee =No chance at an upset. 4. Vitali Klitschko vs. Odlanier Solis = No chance at an upset. 5. Juan Manuel Lopez vs. Orlando Salido =Mild chance of an upset. 6. Andre Berto vs. Victor Ortiz = Mild Chance of an upset. 7. Amir Khan vs. Paul McCloskey = No chance of an upset. 8. Tomasz Adamek vs. Kevin McBride = No chance of an upset. 9. Wladimir Klitschko vs. Dereck Chisora = No chance at an upset. 10. Manny Pacquiao vs. Shane Mosley = No chance at an upset.

15y ago

IIG

I think a lot of people will be shocked when they see how good Solis is. I will be hella surprised if Vitali disposes of him with ease. Dzinziruk, Ortiz, and believe it or not, Mosley, all have a shot at victory.

15y ago

BxFanViento

1. Miguel Cotto vs. Ricardo Mayorga Mayorga is a wild fighter but I feel there is no chance he beats Cotto IMO Cotto wins via sixth or eight round KO. No upset 2. Sergio Martinez vs. Sergei Dzinziruk (March 12th, HBO) Dzinziruk is an outside fighter/jab tactician who will avoid problems by sticking to that strategy. I like him though but I feel that Sergio may be a little to much for him. Prove me wrong Dzinziruk prove me wrong. Sergio Via unanimous decision No upset 3. Lucian Bute vs. Brian Magee I am neither a Bute hater or complete supporter although I do love the way he gets love and attention from the Canadian fans a welcome change indeed. I see Bute knocking out Magee although Magee has been solid lately albeit against "modest" competition (people can twist that arguement on the side of Bute as well) but either way Bute by knockout. No upset 4. Vitali Klitschko vs. Odlanier Solis (March 26th) I have great respect for Cuban fighter especially those who are able to transition from Olympic/Amature into full fledged pro's. However I do not see an upset here as Vitali is too big,too strong, too good. 5. Juan Manuel Lopez vs. Orlando Salido Orlando Salido is a tough as nails fighter who fough bravely against Gamboa but he has little to no chance against Lopez in Puerto Rico and it is almost guaranteed to end early. This is not a question of weather or not Gamboa did or did not knock Salido out early it's a question of extra incentive on the part of Lopez making a good show especially in Puerto Rico. 6. Andre Berto vs. Victor Ortiz "IF" it happens we all know Berto will be the consenus favorite coming into the fight however outside Urango and Quintana Berto has never been tested and if he faces Ortiz (despite questions the heart and will of Ortiz) I think their is a slight chance of an upset considering Ortiz needs redemption especially coming of that dissapointing peformance against Lamont Peterson and what better way to do that then against Berto? 7. Amir Khan vs. Paul McCloskey With all due respect to Mr. McCloskey No chance of an upset here 8. Tomasz Adamek vs. Kevin McBride (April 23rd) No chance of an upset here: Adamek has his sights set on the Klitschko's bro's and will prove his worth. 9. Wladimir Klitschko vs. Dereck Chisora We all know that Wladimir has a bit of a suspect chin (Irregardless of the great strides he has made under Emanuel Steward) I think Chisora's hunger is something to look out for as he wants to shock the world so perhaps their is a little chance of an upset but don't count on it. 10. Manny Pacquiao vs. Shane Mosley There is no way that Manny knocks out Shane like their is no way that Shane beats Manny.

15y ago

HandSpeed303

I wouldn't put Martinez-Dzinziruk with the rest of these fights, even if Martinez ends up a good size favorite it is still a legit fight. I certainly wouldn't call it a mismatch I have to agree... Most just know, and have seen Martinez (I am picking him to win)...But Dzinziruk is a very good fighter. I will admit, I have not seen to much of him out side of youtube, but from what I have seen, dude has a very good chance of winning the fight against Martinez.

15y ago

The_Gambler1981

I wouldn't put Martinez-Dzinziruk with the rest of these fights, even if Martinez ends up a good size favorite it is still a legit fight. I certainly wouldn't call it a mismatch

15y ago

TheBoxingEmpire

Ortiz, Dzinziruk and McCloskey are the top 3 chances for upset I believe.

15y ago

Heru

At least 1 of the favorites in those fights will lose. Berto-Ortiz is not a mismatch, since Berto won't be more than a 3-1 favorite. So of the mismatches, Cotto-Mayorga (Mayorga is a wide puncher, but Cotto's defense is leaky and Mayorga is strong and has some good power), Lopez-Salido (see Guerrero-Salido; Salido has underrated boxing and defensive skills), and Klitschko-Chisora (Wlad is a beast, but Chisora is solid all around and he just might be hungry enough to not give a fukc) are the best bets to the upset, although I do see all of them being able to find their way through the rough patches they will face.

15y ago