Mayweather vs Pacquiao May 2011 or November 2010?

• The drug-testing issue, which may or may not be resolved to Mayweather's satisfaction, although we don't really know, because all Bob Arum has said is that Pacquiao has agreed to the Grand Rapids native's terms, without knowing whether they were the winter terms (14-day pre-fight cutoff with no blood testing) or the summer terms (no cutoff period); • The financial issue, which again may or may not be resolved to Mayweather's satisfaction, because Arum again has said that Pacquiao has agreed to all demands, without saying whether those were the winter terms (a 50-50 base purse split, although the pay-per-view money even was open to contractual intepretation even then) or the summer terms (something less equitable, though ultimately unspecified by Mayweather); • The fact that Arum, who isn't getting any birthday cards from Mayweather in the first place, is attempting to dictate terms to the second-highest-earning athlete in the world, according to Forbes ($68 million in the last year, trailing only Tiger Woods' $105 million). Here are four reasons the fight won't happen that we either haven't addressed at all, or skimmed lightly: TAXATION This hasn't exactly been a minor point with Mayweather. There is a widespread belief that the primary reason he returned last year from his 21 1/2-month layoff was because of a federal income tax lien that went unresolved for more than a year. Whether that was the principal reason or not, it certainly contributed. One fight and a $25 millionish windfall against Juan Manuel Marquez later, and Uncle Sam left satisfied. Now here's the problem. Mayweather's adviser, Leonard Ellerbe, claims the fighter will gross at least $40 million from the Shane Mosley bout this year, based on the 1.4 million initial figure for domestic pay-per-view buys. That amount could adjust for months, even years. Earlier this year, Mayweather cashed at least one check from pay-per-view proceeds that trickled in late from his big year in 2007, when he defeated Oscar De La Hoya and Ricky Hatton. That long flow of cash creates accounting difficulties, particularly when compounded by someone who spends it like Mayweather can. Mayweather could earn the biggest purse in boxing history, somewhere in the $50 million to $60 million range, for a fight against Pacquiao. Why make that money in the same year he already made $40 million for Mosley, when he could put it off until next May and a new tax year? Don't think for one second that this is a minor consideration. Think of it as deferred compensation. With a trial looming Aug. 2, it's unknown if Roger Mayweather, left, would be available to work his nephew's corner or a November fight with Manny Pacquiao. 2. UNCLE ROGER Mayweather's trainer and uncle, Roger Mayweather, is scheduled to go on trial Aug. 2 on a year-old battery case involving a female boxer he once trained. It's a touchy situation, particularly considering Roger Mayweather already served a six-month sentence in 2006-07 for a similar offense. A guilty verdict could result in substantial prison time, up to a maximum of 10 years. If Floyd Mayweather accepts the Pacquiao fight, he would do so with absolutely no idea what the resolution of his trainer's case will be. The obvious resolution would be a training reunion with his father, Floyd Sr., but they have no contract or financial agreement in place, and thinking that the paternal arrangement would materialize that easily is a broad assumption, even with the recent repairs of their personal relationship. Flip the script for a moment. If Pacquiao were in the same situation and facing a deadline that mandated he accept or decline a fight without knowing the availability of his trainer, Freddie Roach, would he rush to accept? Doubtful. Very doubtful. 3. OUTSIDE INTERESTS Long before Pacquiao earned the honor of election to congress in The Philippines, which could curtail his boxing activities greatly over the long haul, Mayweather had his hand in a number of different outside activities. Mayweather still has an interest in producing music and is in the process of recording an album with his buddy 50 Cent. His fledgling foundation has gained some momentum after a slow start. Family interests take up more of his time as his four children get older. He is a part-time fighter, at most, these days. The fingers on one hand will account for all of the fights he has left in him -- and you probably don't need them all. Mayweather hardly has discussed boxing at all since defeating Mosley 2 1/2 months ago and doesn't seem inclined to do so anytime soon. He'll pursue his other interests and enjoy his recent windfall, then take the Pacquiao fight when he's ready, and not until then. May 2011 is still my guess. 4. THE LAWSUIT Years ago, Arum’s Top Rank Inc. and De La Hoya’s Golden Boy Promotions got into a bidding war over Pacquiao. Pacquiao accepted De La Hoya’s offer, then reneged on it. Ever since, Golden Boy Promotions has received a piece of the proceeds from Pacquiao’s fights, even though Top Rank promotes him. That lawsuit for defamation of character, filed by Pacquiao against several members of Team Mayweather for accusing him of using performance-enhancing drugs -- including De La Hoya and Golden Boy Promotions CEO Richard Schaefer -- has as much to do with a desire to get rid of that side settlement as it does with clearing Pacquiao’s good name. As long as there is a chance that the lawsuit can be used as a hammer, both for making the Mayweather fight and eliminating GBP’s percentage of Pacquiao’s take, it will remain in place. Assuming the former is more important than the latter would be a big mistake.