Roach's secret strategy vs Cotto: A military analysis

PACQUIAO vs COTTO COVERAGE: Marv Dumon Caveat: We provide an alternative explanation of what happened during the Manny Pacquiao vs. Miguel Cotto. We believe the strategy "Master" Freddie Roach employed against the bigger Puerto Rican was far "more than meets the eye." Theory # 1: Freddie Roach (and Manny Pacquiao) wanted Miguel Cotto to win round 1 and the early part of round 2. Why? Analysis: Roach stated to the general public that his pupil would attack the then-welterweight champion similar to how Pacquiao attacked Ricky Hatton. Roach declared that Pacquiao would knock out Cotto in the first round. This was an easy deception to detect. In the words of Sun Tzu: "All warfare is based on deception. Even though you are competent, appear to be incompetent. Though effective, appear to be ineffective." The vast majority of the public, and Cotto's own camp, believed that the Puerto Rican would be the stronger and more powerful boxer. Roach (and Pacquiao) knew that the Filipino possesses an explosive junior middleweight punch. Early in the fight, the strategy was to let Cotto move forward and open himself up with the left jab. Manny backed up and pretended to be negatively affected by the "more powerful" welterweight champ. Even HBO commentators were sold on the strategy when Pacquiao was laying on the ropes. Slideshow >> : How Roach's plan resembled Hannibal's against the ancient Romans >> PHOTOS >> Roach's plan resembles Hannibal vs Romans Pacquiao repeatedly placed himself in the direct line of fire, and covered himself up with his gloves like a turtle inside a shell. Manny kept on backing up. Once Cotto was convinced that he could hurt the "smaller" man, he went into his habit of predictably moving forward with his lead ( front ) left jab. ( Cotto is a left-handed fighter with an orthodox stance which means his left jab is his lead punch. ) Once the Puerto Rican moved forward with his left, Roach's first phase of the battleplan succeeded. Alternatively, for Pacquiao to simply march forward towards Cotto would violate one of Sun Tzu's maxims: "Be extremely subtle, even to the point of formlessness. Be extremely mysterious, even to the point of soundlessness." Carl von Clausewitz One of the greatest modern thinkers on warfare was Prussian General Carl von Clausewitz, whose treatise "On War" remains a classic in detailing military principles and strategy. His lessons are taught in military academies around the world. On the element of surprise, Clausewitz states: The surprise is . . . the medium to numerical superiority; but it is besides that also to be regarded as a substantive principle in itself . . . . When it is successful in a high degree, confusion and broken courage in the enemy's ranks are the consequences . . . Slideshow >> : How Roach's plan resembled Hannibal's against the ancient Romans >> Supporting Data: What evidence supports this theory? Let's take a look at the CompuBox results. In the first round, Manny's work rate was low, throwing only 41 punches. In the second, fourth, fifth, sixth, and seventh rounds, Pacquiao threw at least 70 punches. In the ninth round, he threw over 90 punches. That seems to confirm that he was playing soft in the first round. As Cotto opened up, Pacquiao's accuracy and connect rate also increased from 29% in the firt round, to between 40 - 50% in the next eight rounds ( except for round five ). This seems to suggest that opening Cotto up made Pacquiao more effective by landing highly accurate punches. Cotto, on the other hand, started at a cautious 53 punches thrown in the first round. As he gained confidence, due to Roach's bait, he threw more punches from round two to round six, ranging from 59 to 75 punches thrown. However, the speedier Pacquiao's connect rate increased significantly during these rounds. That spelled doom for Cotto. http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-4514-Houston-Boxing-Examiner~y2009m11d21-Roachs-secret-plan-give-Cotto-round-1 Theory # 2: As mentioned, Pacquiao and Roach had an interest in making Cotto think that he was effective with the left jab and doing it while on the attack. Cotto telegraphs his punches most revealingly under this situation. Roach alluded to this weakness in several interviews leading up to the fight. Understandably, he withheld from disclosing any details. ( We covered in a prediction article several of Cotto's weaknesses including his tendency to telegraph punches. ) Continuation