Cotto isn't equipped well enough. He doesn't have a Mayweather/ JMM-like straight right hand. Neither does he have the stamina. In fact, Cotto's most devastating punch "The Left Hook" will be his downfall.
There is a major difference in how Mayweather and Cotto throw their left hook. Cotto has to get set, be flat and during that time, Pacquiao would have either landed a combination or gotten out of the way. Where as Mayweather would let them go (From any angle), as he did against Corrales, Hatton, DLH, Zab and so on. Cotto doesn't throw them like that and because he doesn't, Pacquiao will make him pay. I can see Pacquiao landing the straight left hand (Right glove up), ducking under Cotto's left hook, moving to Cotto's left and repeat.
Watch how Mayweather drops Corrales with the left hook, 1:06, 1:35, 2:50. Does Cotto throw them like that? NO! I see Pacquiao neutralizing Cotto's left hook. Anyway, watch how Mayweather throws the left hook.
You should already see the difference.
My confidence in Pacquiao winning doesn't stop there, I'm 100% sure that if Pacquiao sees past the 7th round, Cotto's gonna be a bloody mess. Cotto's stance will be helpful, in that Pacquiao doesn't throw that many uppercuts and while Cotto does have a bad habit of looking down, Pacquiao will be landing straights to the forehead, where Cotto would be able to absorb the shots. First time Cotto's stance will be useful. Still it won't be enough for Cotto to get the win; he isn't equipped with the right kind of left hook, or a straight right hand. I don't think his straight right hand is good enough, really don't.
Cotto may have more tools then Marquez but not being equpied with the right kind of left hook/ a good enough straight right hand against a south paw the caliber Pacquiao is asking for it. Also, Cotto didn't look to good against Clottey...old cuts may reopen. A speed demon like Pacquiao would take advantage of that.
I'm still not gonna overlook Cotto, his chances are slim but I do acknowledge that Cotto may land something big at one point and that could change everything. Also Cotto may get a little dirty but I'm still gonna go with Pacquiao, Pacquiao by 10th round stoppage .
Animalistic,
That is why Cotto vs Pacquiao is VERY intriguing.
I'm only telling you that Cotto has to get set and that he doesn't possess the tools Mayweather or Marquez have. It's a ticking bomb, Cotto doesn't take care of Pacquiao within the 6 or 7th round, then I can't see Cotto winning. Pacquiao doesn't slow down, where as Cotto does. Again, don't get it twisted and think I'm overlooking Cotto.
Ive seen Cotto land that right hand without being set and Ive seen him land it as a chopping right and a straight right. He landed double right hands on both Mosley and Quintana. Manny's biggest problem is he will shell up like Clottey occasionally but doesnt counter out of that shell and i dont care how many situps he does against a guy like Cotto you dont wanna let him hit you downstairs, on the arms and especially if you shell up and let him power up on his shots. To me Manny is the underdog but if he wins it will be a truly amazing victory .
lol, i'd do it but i don't think a lot of people would be interested in my points. if you don't mind, i'm all for it. i'd be willing to bet all of my points (guess i'd have to be 30,000 since i think you have to pay some sort of tax when donating), just let me know.
30K, confirmed.
Pac wins if it goes past 7. I think he gets KO'd by then tho.
I hear lots of people citing the more rounds this goes as an advantage to Pac. Watch pacs fight with JMM h slows down he is human and if Cotto puts leather on him he better hope to land some manilla ice or the accumulation is what could do him in.
I've watched that many times, back when I was a fan of Cotto. Difference is, Quintana doesn't throw the left straight as much as Pacquiao does. By the way, Cotto vs Quintana wasn't as one-sided as people make it seem, Quintana was in that fight. Still, it was the perfect left hook to the body. Even though Quintana (To me) is a natural Jr MW, I don't think he has Pacquiao's power.
very good analysis. But rewatch the Quintana fight and you will notice that with the exception of round 3- I think- Cotto was landin every punch in the book even though Carlos was doing his best to land some good shots and move laterally on Cotto. I think Pac vs Cotto will be very similiar to the Quintana fight. Lots of movement from Pac, lots of attempted lead lefts but Cotto will exhibit a underrated D and will literally beat Pac down within 7 rounds.
One thing I've noticed about Pacquiao lately is when his opponent likes to go for his breadbasket, he fights on his toes, ready to step back or go side to side at any given time to avoid punishment. If he can't get out of the way quickly enough, he uses his elbow to block the shot. I saw him blocked Oscar's body attacks with his elbow at least 3 or 4 times, while against Hatton, he just got out of the way quite easily by stepping out of the pocket.
Cotto has one of the best jabs in the business, saw him knocked down a few with it (Gomez & Clottey), but his jab won't be that much effective on Pacquiao I believe, and blame it on Pac's right hand lead, which will be always in the way. It will be like playing eskrima or fencing, nullifying each other more often than not, with the faster guy will get his licks in more often than the slower guy, and you know who the faster guy is.
The key to a Cotto win is his right, any right. A right straight, a right cross, or even a right hook. Freddie Roach has been saying that they need to look out for Cotto's powerful left hook. If I were Joe Santiago, I'll use Cotto's left as a decoy, show Pac that left that they will look out for, and make Pac go to his left, and catch him with a straight down the pipe on the fly.
We will see if Pac can take a ww punch. If Pac can, kiss Cotto's chances of winning this goodbye after the 7th round, this is were Pacquiao turns into a meat tenderizer, and turns his opponent into ground beef, that is of course if Cotto can't turn this fight around in the later rounds with a one punch KO, he still has that puncher's chance because of the size disparity come fight night.
I just hope that this fight will live up to its hype, and we really have a good chance of seeing that, knowing how both boxers fight with tenacity for their respective country's honor.
It will be a great day for boxing come Nov. 14, and may the best man win!!!
fact is, one punch from cotto could neutralize pacquiao and it's lights out for him. the power will play a huge role in this fight, speed will not. pacquiao has not proven he can take the power of heavy welterweights like clottey or cotto or margarito. these guys are no shot, way past prime de la hoyas or neither are they walking around way heavier and draining themselves to make weight. they've been in the division and around the weight long enough to dominate it.
little pacquiao does not represent a threat of any kind to cotto. if anything, to be completely honest, i expect this to be a lop sided fight that will have the look of a tune up. it will be competitive at first (maybe first, up till the second round perhaps), so it will seem but a set of punches by cotto will change that fast and dramatically. once he's hit and feels cottos power, it's downhill from there. marquez has a better shot against cotto than pacquiao (with a few more fights at the division that is). cotto is just too much for pacquiao.
It will almost be impossible for jmm to be successful as WW. He is already slowing down in the LW division at it is.
IMO, you are reading too much on your theory that Cotto will now replace Pac as Arum's main cash cow and boxing's next megastar. That might be true considering the disparity in size but I doubt Pac would be willing to give it up without a fight. If ever he got in enough shots, Cotto will get KD/KO. Once pac got cotto hurt, better pray that he recovers fast enough to survive that round.
You make several points. Pacquiao can be caught with a jab. Cotto doesn't need to lead with right to win. Cotto's jab is hard and quick. He can follow it with an explosive right hand, as in the Mosley fight. Also, I don't Pacquiao can back Cotto up. Jumping in and out doesn't back people up. Backing Cotto up is a key to beating him. Pac's hand speed will bother Cotto and he will need a few rounds to time it. When Pac hits Cotto and he doesn't wobble or seem hurt, I think it might suprise Pac. Cotto working body hard early is also important, perhaps slow Pac down a little later in the fight. Cotto's jab, strength, body work, and boxing skills should win this fight, but it's not a sure thing. Pacquiao has been counted out before and suprised the world. I think Cotto stops him late, TKO round 11.
I kind of agree on this. But as we saw in the Hatton fight, it took him at least 4 right hooks before he hurt Hatton. IMO, he will not be deterred by the stoic expression on Cotto's face. Cotto was already hurt in round 2 in the Margarito fight. But minus the blood trickling down his nose, his expression is the same.
fact is, one punch from cotto could neutralize pacquiao and it's lights out for him. the power will play a huge role in this fight, speed will not. pacquiao has not proven he can take the power of heavy welterweights like clottey or cotto or margarito. these guys are no shot, way past prime de la hoyas or neither are they walking around way heavier and draining themselves to make weight. they've been in the division and around the weight long enough to dominate it.
little pacquiao does not represent a threat of any kind to cotto. if anything, to be completely honest, i expect this to be a lop sided fight that will have the look of a tune up. it will be competitive at first (maybe first, up till the second round perhaps), so it will seem but a set of punches by cotto will change that fast and dramatically. once he's hit and feels cottos power, it's downhill from there. marquez has a better shot against cotto than pacquiao (with a few more fights at the division that is). cotto is just too much for pacquiao.
Wow, care to bet, I see you have 33K :p
Cotto Is good with both hands you will see Nov 14.... He is a natural left handed fighter but he can fight right handed also if you see the Mosley fight he switches from one side to the other.
This fight will be interesting because I think Roach is expecting Cotto to go after Manny and will prepare Manny to move and counter like with De La Hoya.
I'm not sure if Cotto is going to fight that way. He might decide to sit back and try to time Manny more since Manny is so fast.
It is definitely going to be interesting.
I didn't read the whole thread...but I agree with this post, Cotto is a smart guy, like other elite boxers can adapt to any situation in a fight. I don't believe Cotto will be on the offensive starting off, in fact I believe Cotto will feint and time pacman. I disagree with the thread starters analysis of the left hook being his downfall...I think Cotto has a real good left hook that he likes to plant and then pivots out the way. I think it will be a great counter against Pacs Straight Left as he has a bad tendency to drop his right at times when he lunges in. I'm a of Both more so a Cotto fan (hispanic,non-PR) I can debate and support why I think Cotto would most likely win...my prediction is COtto KO round 10. I 'm not a fan boy that will not make comments without backing the comments up.
This fight will be interesting because I think Roach is expecting Cotto to go after Manny and will prepare Manny to move and counter like with De La Hoya.
I'm not sure if Cotto is going to fight that way. He might decide to sit back and try to time Manny more since Manny is so fast.
It is definitely going to be interesting.
Don't waste your time Dominicano, the Ricans will never agree to your very well thought observation. Manny will make Cotto a bloddy mess if it goes past 7-8 rounds like you said. I'm sure Cotto will hang in there but the speed, angles and power of Manny is going to be too much for him. We all know Cotto can't fight going backwards and his punches doesn't have the same power as they do when he plants his feet like Dominicano said, even though Manny won't pressure him like Margarito did he's going to be in and out so much that it won't give Cotto the chance to set his punches. The only way I see Miguel change the course of the fight is if he throws his jab constantly and lands it in order to disrupt some of Manny's quick in and out charges, other than that he's pretty much ground beef.
Miguel Cotto doesn't have the footwork to throw that lunging left hook that Floyd throws. Like you said, Cotto needs to plant his feet to throw a punch and that is not good against someone with Pacquiao's footwork and head movement.
You don't have to throw a lunging left hook to land a left hook on Manny. You just have to know how to set it up. Matter of fact a lunging left hook should only be done by guys with special reflexes like a Mosley or Mayweather.
All he has to do is set the punch up, and Cotto's good at that. Not a lot of thought process goes into Hatton's offensive attack, and Oscar couldn't really pull the trigger the same way. He'll work in the sweeping right hand to the body to drop pac's hands. He's done it with every southpaw. It's why he kept doing it against Zab even though it strayed low a couple of times. Because it works.
Cotto always finds a way to land his left hook. The only guy who will make him pay for having to get set to punch is Floyd. If Pacquiao thinks he can just pot shot all night and avoid the left hook, he's got another thing coming.
Landing punches won't be the problem. Hatton and Oscar made Manny look a little too good in that respect. I just don't see Cotto being able to withstand the flurries of punches coming his way for 12 straight rounds.
You could possibly be right because Marg has put plaster in his gloves......
Imagine if Cotto suffered a serious cut, that's no good against a speed demon in Pacquiao.
Can't remember name so someone will have to help me out here. There is this dude who has sparred both Margarito and Pacquiao, he said that Pacquiao has more power then Margarito, can't remember name so someone will have to help me out here.
You could possibly be right because Marg has put plaster in his gloves......
I have to say its good solid points but man I think his right hook is just fine for Pac. I think with the right hook to Pacs body when he takes him to the ropes (size plays into this).
I think Cotto will let Pac come to him and counter. You have to remember that Cotto's only lost was to Marg who hits a hell of a lot harder than Pac. Pac does move and comes at you with different angles I just don't see any power to have Cotto shaken.
Hoya and Hatton like I have said made people beleieve to thinking that Pac can bang with these big guys. Just as people give Mayweather crap for beating the slower, smaller etc etc JMM. Pac did the same to Hoya. It made him look better than he really was. Man Hoya in his prime would have murdered him then laughed and would do it all over again. Pacs great don't get me wrong. I just dont think you will see the greatness vs these bigger guys.
I think Cotto has everything needed to beat Pac. The movement will give Cotto hell but It think we will see Cotto fighting off his back foot with Pac coming at him but then I also see Pac being pushed up on the ropes with Cotto landing some nice body shots.
Solid points though. Great argument. At least its not just someone saying..... "because its Pac-man".....
Can't remember name so someone will have to help me out here. There is this dude who has sparred both Margarito and Pacquiao, he said that Pacquiao has more power then Margarito, can't remember name so someone will have to help me out here.
16y ago
Why I Believe Pacquiao Will Beat Cotto. | BoxingScene Community
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