It seems like as we get closer to the fight, the undecideds are starting to lean toward Hopkins. I think that may be because Pavlik is still a relatively new face in the sport, and people tend to go with what is familiar to them. Let's be honest though. Hopkins looked old in his last fight. Very old. He will not look any younger in this fight, especially since he is having to go back down 5 lbs. to 170. Pavlik on the other hand, will have zero problem making 170, and will most likely carry some of his power up. I don't see him looking slow either, since he will probably feel extremely healthy on fight night because he practically walks around at 170. He will be active, he will have power, and he will not be getting hit by a guy who is notorious for his knockouts(not lately). Also, Pavlik is not Calzaghe, his punches will be accurate, they will be in bunches, and unlike Calzaghe, they will HURT. This will make Bernard look old even faster than his last fight, because nothing makes someone age faster than hard punches, even when they are landing on his arms and side. Point is, Hopkins only chance in this fight is to land a massive, perfectly precise, perfectly placed, counter shot. I see Pavlik being a heavy favorite. Even more than Vegas odds have him, which is 4 to 1, i believe. If any one wants to add to this or disagree, please do.
Hopkins by split decision. Regardless Hopkins is gonna make it competitive. Just off of him being difficult to hit and being unpredictable with where his punches are coming from. Unlike Calzaghe Pavlik is more stationary and easier to hit IMO. But Pavlik has really good stamina.
I think Pavlik will have more problems than people expect, but i see him pulling away with a close controversial decision. One i thing i noticed in the Taylor fight was that Pavlik has weaknesses against fighters that gives him lateral movement and keeps a high guard. Hopkins even at this stage is 10 times the boxer than Taylor is, has far better defense and is more crafty and intelligent. He knows how to get out of the way of danger, he keeps his head low so he doesn't get caught on the way in and he keeps the fight in the center of the ring, which is one of the most important factors has most of Kelly's knockout has came with his opponent on the ropes taking punishment. While a Pavlik prediction is my pick, i will NOT be surprised at Hopkins winning. A Pavlik win is better for boxing though, so i reckon he has the advantage if the fight is close.
'Nard also has a better chin. Only time Bernard gets beaten is by slicksters, and Kelly ain't so slick.
Don't get me wrong, I like Kelly Pavlik, I have no bias against him. Is he in Hopkins' class? Of course not.
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B-HOP wins
I love Pavlik. I was looking forward to him building up his career and being a superstar. Great kid, humble, comes to fight. It's sad there gonna put him in there with X.
X easily beat Tarver, who is bigger, stonger, and better than Pavlik. X is technically way better than Pavlik. He'll beat him EASY.
1. Primarily with footwork. X has elite footwork. Pavlik is below average here. He only fights one way, FORWARD. X will use movement to beat Pavlik. Power punchers need a target. Taylor was a target and so was Miranda, both power punchers w/ no footwork.
2. Defense. Pavlik will not land anything clean the whole night. X has the best Defense in all of boxing.
3. Counters. X will counter Pavliks right had with left hooks to the body and head.
4. Jab. X will take away Pavliks jab first. Lets see what kind of fighter Pavlik is without his jab.
5. Lead Right. X will start landing his lead right.
6. If he can get Pavlik to back up, he will stop him.
Pavlik does have workrate, but nothing is going to land clean. Since there are no future stars besides Pavlik coming up they might steal this from BHOP on workrate alone. Calslappy didn't land anything and the biased commentators gave him credit on punches that didn't land.
Can someone that is for Pavlik give 'technical' reasons that Pavlik will win? For pure boxing skills this is a complete mismatch.
Pardon? I can say "Hopklins KO late" if I want to, cause that's how I feel it will go. I didn't realize there is a law against it...
Bernard will just build on what Taylor almost did. Kelly will go down. Hopkins still has the power, and knocking Calzaghe down proved it. Who do you think has a better chin, Pavlik or Calzaghe? I see several knockdowns for Kelly in this fight because he doesn't have a great chin, or at best he has a suspect chin.
Do the math:
Suspect chin + predictablity + Bernard's experience = a rough night for Kelly Pavlik.
WOW. :haha:
HOW? You can't just say KO late. How do you see Hopkins gettin up enough of a workrate where a KO is remotely possible.
Pardon? I can say "Hopklins KO late" if I want to, cause that's how I feel it will go. I didn't realize there is a law against it...
Bernard will just build on what Taylor almost did. Kelly will go down. Hopkins still has the power, and knocking Calzaghe down proved it. Who do you think has a better chin, Pavlik or Calzaghe? I see several knockdowns for Kelly in this fight because he doesn't have a great chin, or at best he has a suspect chin.
Do the math:
Suspect chin + predictablity + Bernard's experience = a rough night for Kelly Pavlik.
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Pavlik outworking the older Hopkins seems like the most reasonable prediction for me.
I do think that Hopkins has all the skill and experience to be able to beat Pavlik but he is getting too old to put them to use 100%. It won't be enough.
Hopkins is going to send Kelly's ass back to Youngstown bruised and broke. The only sad part about it is that after 'Nard executes Kelly, Kelly won't have anywhere to make a living since the steel mills in Youngstown are all gone.
pavlik has a weak chin and will eventually get koed
but hopkins is too passive he might knock him down but never ko him
the smart choice is pavlik based on workrate alone
pavlik has fought at 165 and looked the same at 170 he would look the same, pavlik is also a big strong man and wont fall for hopkins clinches
i believe pavlik wins an ud like 8 rounds to 2 forcing hopkins into retirement
I am a huge Pavlik fan, but I realize that he will eventually get knocked out, or at least its very possible. However, I see him staying undefeated at 160 and 168. Kessler is the big threat there. I can see him going to 175 against a Chad Dawson, and getting KO'd, possibly. For the next 3-4 years, though I see Pavlik being the best fighter the U.S. has to offer.
The reasons I picked Hopkins though I wouldn't be surprised if Pavlik won
More Experience, Pavlik is moving up to 170 power might not be same, Hopkins has a chin, Pavlik fights in predictable patterns, Pavlik is vunerable to right hands, Stylistically Hpkins should be a nightmare for Pavlik
This could be all void if Hopkins has no workrate and shows even more age.