Lets Pretend..

A good analysis. However, Joe has shown of late that if he is STARTING to get backed into an 'all out war', he'll just take the fight to length and then pick off his opponent with superior speed, reactions, stamina and boxing skills. These are still advantages that he'd have over Pavlik. Which then leaves us with the situation whereby in order to win, Kelly really will need to be able to knock Calzaghe out. Lots of fans think that he will, I dont in all honesty. Well, the thread was about "playing pretend". I think my post also shows just how difficult it will actually be for Pavlik to win. I mean what trainer is going to say to his fighter "Right, I want all out war from the first bell"? Its a tactic that outside of the most dynamic aggressors like Tyson, you just don't see that often. There is no guarantee whatsoever that Pavlik would actually win "a war", we don't really know HOW could his chin is, but he was very close to being stopped against Taylor, much closer than Calzaghe has ever been, and the question of whether he can KO Joe is up in the air. I personally don't see him doing it, since Joe never has been, and if Kelly can't KO Joe, can he really outpoint him? Again it seems pretty doubtful. Bring this fight on, I say.

Joe's biggest vulnerability is to getting caught with counters when he is facing a cagey opponent and has to force the pace of the fight himself. Unfortunately Pavlik is no counterpuncher and I don't think he can learn to be one overnight. I think such a tactic would end up with Joe embarassing Kelly so that one is definitely out IMO. The bottom line is that Pavlik's biggest strength is his punching power, and against his opponents so far, stamina. I'm not sure the second will be an advantage over Joe, indeed it might be the other way around, so Pavlik has to play to his one definite advantage, power. Basically I think his best chance to win is go for all out war. In any exchanges they have, Joe will probably land more than kelly, but likely Kelly will hand the harder shots, since we all know Joe doesn't punch that hard usually. Joe has shown a tendency to allow himself to be drawn into straight up punching matches, and I am pretty sure that this is the only scenario in which Kelly will land enough hard shots to wear Jone down and beat him, in a boxing match Joe will prove far too elusive. Up till now, Pavlik has won each of his big fights because of his punching power, but he has had relatively static targets. Joe is not static, so Kelly needs to back his power to get the job done and do what it takes to land those shots, whatever the risks might be. Don't tell Jack Loew. A good analysis. However, Joe has shown of late that if he is STARTING to get backed into an 'all out war', he'll just take the fight to length and then pick off his opponent with superior speed, reactions, stamina and boxing skills. These are still advantages that he'd have over Pavlik. Which then leaves us with the situation whereby in order to win, Kelly really will need to be able to knock Calzaghe out. Lots of fans think that he will, I dont in all honesty.

i totally agree.. would you use other tactics, perhaps "as pav´s trainer" make him go all out in a war of words, try to agitate joe beforehand.. use whatever is necessary to piss him off..?? joe has previous been drawn into brawls.. but a brawl with pavlik, could quite easely give joe his first loss.. No, I don't think Calzaghe is going to get agitated at anything anyone says to him. If I was Pavlik I'd do my talking in the ring.

Joe's biggest vulnerability is to getting caught with counters when he is facing a cagey opponent and has to force the pace of the fight himself. Unfortunately Pavlik is no counterpuncher and I don't think he can learn to be one overnight. I think such a tactic would end up with Joe embarassing Kelly so that one is definitely out IMO. The bottom line is that Pavlik's biggest strength is his punching power, and against his opponents so far, stamina. I'm not sure the second will be an advantage over Joe, indeed it might be the other way around, so Pavlik has to play to his one definite advantage, power. Basically I think his best chance to win is go for all out war. In any exchanges they have, Joe will probably land more than kelly, but likely Kelly will hand the harder shots, since we all know he doesn't punch that hard usually. Joe has shown a tendency to allow himself to be drawn into straight up punching matches, and I am pretty sure that this is the only scenario in which Kelly will land enough hard shots to wear Jone down and beat him, in a boxing match Joe will prove far too elusive. Up till now, Pavlik has won each of his big fights because of his punching power, but he has had relatively static targets. Joe is not static, so Kelly needs to back his power to get the job done and do what it takes to land those shots, whatever the risks might be. Don't tell Jack Loew. i totally agree.. would you use other tactics, perhaps "as pav´s trainer" make him go all out in a war of words, try to agitate joe beforehand.. use whatever is necessary to piss him off..?? joe has previous been drawn into brawls.. but a brawl with pavlik, could quite easely give joe his first loss..

Joe's biggest vulnerability is to getting caught with counters when he is facing a cagey opponent and has to force the pace of the fight himself. Unfortunately Pavlik is no counterpuncher and I don't think he can learn to be one overnight. I think such a tactic would end up with Joe embarassing Kelly so that one is definitely out IMO. The bottom line is that Pavlik's biggest strength is his punching power, and against his opponents so far, stamina. I'm not sure the second will be an advantage over Joe, indeed it might be the other way around, so Pavlik has to play to his one definite advantage, power. Basically I think his best chance to win is go for all out war. In any exchanges they have, Joe will probably land more than kelly, but likely Kelly will hand the harder shots, since we all know Joe doesn't punch that hard usually. Joe has shown a tendency to allow himself to be drawn into straight up punching matches, and I am pretty sure that this is the only scenario in which Kelly will land enough hard shots to wear Jone down and beat him, in a boxing match Joe will prove far too elusive. Up till now, Pavlik has won each of his big fights because of his punching power, but he has had relatively static targets. Joe is not static, so Kelly needs to back his power to get the job done and do what it takes to land those shots, whatever the risks might be. Don't tell Jack Loew.

Pavlik needs to stay away from the ropes and corners. He needs to double and triple up on his jab, throw short fask hooks to the body and throw many combinations. I have a feeling he'll miss 70% of the time with his right hand, I think Joe would just lean out the way. He still needs to throw his right hand against Joe (obviously this is his bread and butter) but not as often because Joey will be looking out for it.

The only way he can win is by KO or multiple KDs. Pavlik will have to try and pressure Calzaghe non stop and bully him onto the ropes which will not happen against a fighter from a higher division.