By Lyle Fitzsimmons
When it comes to forecasting fights, I go one of two ways.
Sometimes I’m as sure as sure can be. One guy will win. And my view doesn’t change.
Other times, it’s just the opposite. Depending on the hour, I can see a different conclusion.
Mayweather-Pacquiao was an example of the former. Makes no difference to me at what point of their careers they would have fought – I saw no chance Mayweather could lose.
Holyfield-Tyson was an example of the latter. Though I saw a million reasons why the “Real Deal” would win the first go-round as a huge underdog – when push came to shove I couldn’t pull the trigger.
It still bothers me.
And 20 years later, old newspaper friend John Carberry still gives me a hard time about it.
Fast-forward to March 2016, and I’m having another one of those quandaries.
And Saturday night didn’t do much to ease my mind.
Because I am and have long been a fan of Andre Ward’s, it’s difficult for me to go into any fight thinking that he’ll lose. I covered him for the first time in the Cayman Islands eight years ago, and I’ve only gone public against him one time in 13 subsequent outings.
Given his still-unblemished record, it’s pretty easy to see the error of my ways on that one.
But with all that as precedent, I’m having a hard time developing certainty for his next one.
Because even after two full watches of a near-shutout against bigger, longer and supposedly stronger light heavyweight Sullivan Barrera, I can’t quite decide exactly what Saturday made me sure of.
Did it prove that the former super middleweight king can go into the lion’s den against a full-fledged 175-pounder without concern that his skill set had ebbed?
Or did it show that the sublime stuff that yielded such greatness at 168 would render him a very good fighter – but not quite an impenetrable one -- in his new scale surroundings?
Not surprisingly, the fighter himself suggests the former.
He’s older, yes. But also smarter.
“You look at a young 20-year-old Floyd and he’s moving all over the ring, and then you see Floyd in his 30s and he’s moving just enough. That’s the zone that I’m getting into right now,” Ward said. “It could always be better, but I feel like I’m in the middle of my prime right now. I like what I’m seeing in the gym. I like what I see in my fights. And I just think I’m evolving into a more mature fighter.”
Thing is, I agree.
But as easy as it is to convince myself the 32-year-old blunted the effectiveness of a Cuban with a bigger size advantage than Sergey Kovalev will have, it’s just as easy to persuade me that the myriad shots Barrera was able to land would result in far more devastation if launched from the Russian.
When I looked for validation on that latter viewpoint, it wasn’t hard to find.
“I am going with Kovalev,” said Randy Gordon, a twice-weekly boxing host on SiriusXM radio and former chairman of the New York State Athletic Commission. “Bigger, harder-hitting, can fight inside and outside.”
All of which leaves me precisely where I started from.
Stumped.
But that doesn’t seem to be the case for everyone.
No less a light heavyweight expert than Antonio Tarver – who held the division’s IBF, IBO, WBA and WBC belts at one time or another – went into the weekend seeing a Ward-Kovalev match as a 50/50 proposition, and suggesting that what he’d see Saturday would enlighten him enough to make a call.
“I haven't seen anyone really take the play from (Ward) in a fight,” he said last week. “Have a sustained offense against him, hit him with hard, unexpected shots. He's kept everything right in front of him. So I'm curious to know and see. Can he wipe a guy out that's really trying to hurt him? I like Ward initially, but if this guy can catch Ward with shots or even hurt Ward, then you'll have to think Kovalev could.”
Thirty-six minutes later – and after Ward limited Barrera to a 15 percent connect rate and cut his per-round output by a quarter – the “Magic Man” has definitively left the fence.
“Ward is one of those rare fighters that come along every so often that truly understands the game from a mental approach,” he said Monday.
“I believe that with his talents, he’ll be able to figure out with his boxing.”
With eight months or so until it actually occurs, I figure I’ll flip-flop another 200 or so times before sounding as certain as he does.
But no matter which way I’m leaning by November, one thing’s for sure.
There’s no way in hell I’m telling John.
* * * * * * * * * *
This week's title-fight schedule:
FRIDAY
WBA super lightweight title – Washington, District of Columbia
Adrien Broner (champion/No. 4 IWBR) vs. Ashley Theophane (No. 9 WBA/No. 40 IWBR)
Broner (31-2, 23 KO): First title defense; Eighth fight in weight class (7-0, 4 KO)
Theophane (39-6-1, 11 KO): First title fight; Thirteenth fight in United States (9-3, 1 KO)
Fitzbitz says: Broner is probably among the least liked fighters around, but that doesn’t mean he’s not talented, particularly at 140. Unless his head is elsewhere, he’s got too much here. Broner in 9
Last week’s picks: 1-0 (WIN: Brook)
2016 picks record: 13-4 (76.4 percent)
Overall picks record: 745-252 (74.7 percent)
NOTE: Fights previewed are only those involving a sanctioning body's full-fledged title-holder – no interim, diamond, silver, etc. Fights for WBA "world championships" are only included if no "super champion" exists in the weight class.
Lyle Fitzsimmons has covered professional boxing since 1995 and written a weekly column for Boxing Scene since 2008. He is a full voting member of the Boxing Writers Association of America. Reach him at fitzbitz@msn.com or follow him on Twitter – @fitzbitz.
