There’s no denying the quality of the run Saul Alvarez went on from his win in the second Gennadiy Golovkin fight through his undisputed coronation at super middleweight with a knockout of Caleb Plant. Alvarez already had the fame component of a hall of fame run. The victories from Golovkin to Plant helped finish his credentials in the ring.  

Was it also the finish of his prime?

It probably won’t feel or look like it Saturday night (DAZN PPV, 7 PM). Alvarez makes his first appearance in his home country of Mexico since a 2011 victory over Kermit Cintron. Alvarez will defend the undisputed super middleweight crown against solid veteran contender John Ryder (32-5, 18 KO). A crowd of approximately 50,000 should be on hand for an event that will inevitably draw comparisons to Julio Cesar Chavez’s incredible stadium showing against Greg Haugen in 1993.

While this won’t quite be Chavez-Haugen, a monster that drew over 132,000 fans, 50,000 fill up a camera just fine. Ryder isn’t without credentials. There were many who felt he did enough to defeat Callum Smith and he eeked past Danny Jacobs two fights ago. Fighters have received title shots for less. 

It doesn’t mean Ryder’s chances are on the better side of slim and none. Homecoming fights like this are often about finding the right contender to make a champion shine. In Alvarez’s case, a little shine wouldn’t hurt. 

2022 wasn’t Alvarez’s best year.

The superstar started last year picking up his first official loss since 2013 humbling at the hands of Floyd Mayweather. Making his second move to the division, Alvarez was hoping to join Tommy Hearns as a former Jr. middleweight titlist picking up a second title at light heavyweight. WBA titlist Dmitrii Bivol had other plans.

The judges leaned Alvarez in some early rounds but by night’s end the victor was clear. Alvarez was visibly frustrated as Bivol outboxed and out-thought him for most of twelve rounds. Size was part of the equation but Bivol was also just better and there wasn’t much Alvarez could do about it that night. 

September reset the ship with an old rival. Both of Alvarez’s first two fights with Golovkin were highly competitive, dramatic affairs. The first fight, which ended in a draw, was controversial. The outcome second was merely debatable, with Alvarez putting together one of the best performances of his career in a class pitched battle.

The third fight was a pedestrian epilogue. Golovkin didn’t have in him anymore what he had the first two times they fought and Alvarez, despite the Bivol loss, remained one of the best in the game. The scorecards were surprisingly closer than they probably should have been. Alvarez wasn’t overwhelming but he was efficient, exact, and clearly the victor. 

Neither performance quite mirrored the fighter who seemed to have elevated to a new level from Golovkin II through Plant and it raises the question of time. 

Alvarez will enter the Ryder fight with less than half a year to go before he reaches the eighteenth anniversary of his professional debut. It’s almost fifteen years since the second of two teenage wins over future lightweight titlist Miguel Vazquez. Because Alvarez is still so present, his longevity might not be something fans take into account yet.

It should. 

With more than sixty pro fights, more than 450 rounds live and countless more in the gym, Alvarez’s window as one of the genuine elite may be in the inevitable march toward its close.

Alvarez continues to say he wants a chance at revenge against Bivol. Bivol is no less than 1A in a two-headed race with Artur Beterbiev for best light heavyweight in the world. It’s understandable that Alvarez would want revenge. Based on the first fight, it’s a steep hill to climb.

The hills are getting steeper at super middleweight as well. David Benavidez affirmed his place as leading threat in the division with his own win over Plant. David Morrell is rising through the ranks quickly. 

All of these men, and others, represent fighters in the flush of their own primes or just getting there. History tells us that’s how boxing, indeed sports broadly, works. It’s your time until it’s someone else’s time.

Alvarez is far from done but the obstacles coming after Ryder carry real peril. Saturday could be the beginning of a final flourish that deepens his place in boxing lore…but the memory of Chavez-Haugen kicks in again. 

Later in 1993, an 87-0 Chavez was outclassed by Pernell Whitaker, his unbeaten mark saved in absurd fashion by a draw verdict. Four months after that even the judges couldn’t bail Chavez out. Frankie Randall dropped Chavez for the first time en route to a decision win that cemented the beginning of a long goodbye. Chavez had fully entered the post-prime side of his career. 

If Alvarez’s isn’t there yet, it’s probably not far off.

Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene, a founding member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, a member of the International Boxing Research Organization, and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America.