When Erickson Lubin was confirmed as Vergil Ortiz Jnr’s opponent on Saturday I considered it a step up in Ortiz Jnr’s promising career.
He’d already impressively beaten Serhii Bohachuk and Israil Madrimov – technically sound, eastern European fighters, but ones not necessarily as fluid as those who can be found in the US – so matching him with Lubin represented a chance for him to test himself against a different style of fighter.
Since then, my perception of it as a match-up has evolved. Psychologically, Lubin – someone who has unfinished business; one of the best not to win a world title we’ve seen – has presented, throughout his preparations, as someone who recognises what a big opportunity this is for him. He’s been very consistent – he’s given off little in the way of either highs or lows – and appeared very focused. There appears to be little laughing and joking, and physically he looks very good – he looks on course to be an even bigger test than I was already expecting for Ortiz Jnr, a fighter who deserves credit for his willingness to embrace challenges of this nature.
Ortiz Jnr’s mentality has often been like a robot’s – whoever’s in front of him he seeks to destroy, which is something that can be seen every time he steps into the ring. Regardless of the style of fighter in front of him, he seeks and destroys.
It’s tempting to view Lubin as the ideal opponent for Ortiz Jnr to prepare for a future fight with Jaron “Boots” Ennis, but Lubin’s a world-class fighter – he’s much more than just an opponent. If Ortiz Jnr – who might already be the best junior-middleweight in the world; it’s between him and Bakhram Murtazaiev – reaches the very top of their division, he’ll have earned it.
Lubin had the option of fighting Murtazaliev, the IBF champion, before agreeing terms to fight Ortiz Jnr, but that’s not necessarily because he viewed Ortiz Jnr as the easier opponent. Ortiz Jnr, simply, is established in the US with the size of profile that Murtazaliev – who deserves much better – doesn’t have.
The tenacious Ortiz Jnr may not be quite the puncher he was at welterweight, but he remains an intimidating body puncher with solid skills, considerable presence, and an impressive ability to control the ring – all of which combine to get him into positions from which to break his opponents. He, regardless, is hittable – and we’ve seen him get put down – because of his willingness to take risks, and despite him having a good chin, punchers at this level are capable of exploiting the risks he takes.
Lubin’s not only a slick boxer and southpaw, he’s also powerful. Like Ortiz Jnr he’s willing to engage in a firefight – but he also possesses the skills to avoid doing so if he wants. Ortiz Jnr’s pressure will, at some point – perhaps early – force Lubin to trade with him, but he needs to make the right decisions about when to continue trading and then when to return to boxing and attempt to control Ortiz Jnr from the outside. We also can’t be sure whether, having turned professional at a young age and shared the ring with some tough fighters, he remains as fresh as he may need to be.
If it’s possible that Lubin won’t get another opportunity like this – it might be now or never for him to finally win a world title – it’s also relevant that Ortiz Jnr is as important as he is for Golden Boy Promotions, who I believe consider Lubin the preparation he needs for the fight with Ennis that’s already in demand. While the more limited Ryan Garcia’s their most popular fighter – and one capable of winning a title in a thin welterweight division – Ortiz Jnr is the most complete fighter they have; the one they can be confident of matching with anyone and believe that he will win.
I fully anticipate an explosive fight in which both start fast – and believe that if Lubin doesn’t start fast, he risks being overwhelmed. Ortiz Jnr won’t shy away from him, so if Lubin starts as he should, the pace and action should quickly be high. I expect them both to have periods of success, but on account of Ortiz Jnr’s freshness he’s the one I expect to win a difficult fight – possibly via a late stoppage, once Lubin’s been ground down, and possibly after Ortiz Jnr has had to climb off the canvas having been hurt.
On the subject of junior middleweights, the latest we’re hearing is that Murtazaliev is going to fight Josh Kelly on January 31, when Xander Zayas and Abass Baraou will also attempt to unify the WBO and WBA titles.
Kelly’s a super talented fighter who’s yet to live up to the hype he’s generated, and as a consequence he’s the one having to fight the champion everyone else wants to avoid. Murtazaliev’s a tough ask for him – and a savage of a fighter. There will never be a better time for Kelly to realise his potential.
The willingness of Zayas and Baraou to try to unify their titles so quickly into their reigns as champions is admirable, not least because I don’t think Top Rank have any desire to rush Zayas into big tests – he’s certainly yet to look ready to be tested against the likes of Murtazaliev, Ortiz Jnr or Lubin.
*
I was surprised at how easily Delante "Tiger" Johnson beat Nicklaus Flaz on Friday evening in Lakeland, where I was ringside. It's not just that he stopped Flaz – who had produced a string of impressive performances – it was that he was so devastating and destructive in the process of recording victory. Johnson made a statement that signalled, emphatically, his arrival at world level as a professional.
He's already good enough to win a world championship. But there's a chance that he might have looked too good, and scared off the titleholders at welterweight. Johnson is a class fighter, but he may have ensured he's become considered too high a risk for too little a reward.
Champions getting away with making excuses is one of the things that most frustrates me about professional boxing. I hope Johnson is rewarded for such a stellar performance, but his profession has a strange way of punishing fighters like him for being as good as he was.
Flaz, either way, has taken bad losses in the past and roared back, and I believe that he can do so again because he has walked this road before and proven he has both the talent and character to walk it again. But he has to remain just as hungry as ever. A short memory is important in boxing.
