By Cliff Rold
This Saturday, current WBO welterweight titlist Manny Pacquiao (59-6-2, 38 KO), he of the record eight title claims combining lineal and sanctioning body crowns, will attempt the first defense in his third WBO reign at 147 lbs. While the fervor he once attracted around the world has ebbed from what it once was, the crowd in Australia won’t look like it. There should be somewhere around 50,000 fans at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane, the most since he faced Joshua Clottey and Antonio Margarito in Dallas in 2010.
Pacquiao’s opponent is a local, 29-year old Jeff Horn (16-0-1, 11 KO), given the chance of a lifetime in his hometown. On paper, he’s the most undistinguished foe Pacquiao has faced since Hector Velasquez in 2005. It is his only his second foe since then who was not a current or former titlist; the other was Jorge Solis, who settled only for an interim title in his career.
It’s the sort of opponent that screams aging fighter. Pacquiao is definitely that. At 38, just a few shy of his 70th professional fight in a 22-year career, there is no mistaking Pacquiao is past the point where one could say he’s getting up there.
For a fighter with his style, whose first title came over 18-years ago, he should be considered an old fighter.
So when will someone prove it?
Pacquiao might be getting older but we’re still waiting for someone to make him old.
It’s going to happen. It happens to everyone. Pacquiao’s 2016 campaign says it hasn’t happened yet. Horn is a sizable step back from last year. In a third fight with Timothy Bradley, he scored two knockdowns en route to his most dominant performance in their trilogy. Against Jessie Vargas, he scored another knockdown and cruised to a wide decision. Both were rated by consensus as top ten welterweights.
Pacquiao lapped them.
The fighter who lost clearly to Floyd Mayweather in 2015 showed he’s still more than a handful for everyone else. Losing to Mayweather didn’t make him an old man; everyone lost to Floyd and Mayweather was the older man there.
Mayweather was just better that night and probably would have been better on any night, even if they’d faced off when their competition would have been greatest around 2009-10.
If there is disappointment with this choice of opponent this weekend, it is because of that, because of what Pacquiao showed he had left in the tank last year. He clearly isn’t what he was in his prime. Pacquiao at his best was one of the great offensive forces in boxing history, a whirl of hand and foot speed with devastating power.
Even slowed down he remains well quicker than the average fighter. While much has been made of his lack of knockouts as his welterweight tenure has extended to the better part of nine years, he still manages to sit people down regularly. They just don’t stay down like they used to.
Pacquiao is, still, one of the best welterweights in the world until proven otherwise. Since no one has, there are fights out there people will only naturally want to see. Under the Top Rank promotional banner, Jr. welterweight champion Terence Crawford is only a division away. Unified welterweight titlist Keith Thurman and newly minted beltholder Errol Spence occupy the other side of the aisle under the Al Haymon umbrella.
Any of them would love to face Pacquiao, to have the chance to prove that his time is past. Some might say otherwise, play nonchalant, but there is no one else with his value at welterweight unless Mayweather returns to boxing in a serious way.
Horn can spoil it for everyone else this weekend (ESPN, 9 PM EST/6PM PST). The crowd will be hoping he does. Horn is the one best positioned to make Pacquiao an old man because he’s the one in the ring. If he does not, if he falls to Pacquiao in front of what will be the biggest live audience Pacquiao has had on US TV since the Mayweather fight, no one will be surprised.
There is a feeling this is in some ways an effort to kick-start the Pacquiao machine on a wide platform. He hasn’t stopped being a star but he needs a night that gets people talking again. Boxing fans would love to see a Pacquiao-Crawford or Pacquiao-Thurman, but there is no fever for those matches just yet.
If Pacquiao can put on a show this weekend, even score his first stoppage since 2009, it might be the start of a spark. When it gets hot enough, rich enough, Pacquiao is going to face one of the men who could make him, finally, truly, old.
For now, Manny Pacquiao is just getting older. No one has proved he’s an old man just yet.
But the clock is ticking.
Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene, a founding member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com