By Andreas Hale
We’re inside of a month before Floyd Mayweather and Conor McGregor engage in one of the most bizarre boxing matches in the history of the sport. However, oddsmakers have quite the task on their hands as the line for the August 26th showdown between a pound for pound legend in boxing and a two-division UFC champion with no professional boxing experience march toward their Las Vegas fight.
Although there has been some significant money coming in on McGregor, most are completely blown away by the fact that the Irishman can be found as low as a 4-1 underdog (+400). For those unfamiliar with betting, that line doesn’t sound all that bad. Bet a dollar on McGregor and get four back if he wins. Sounds good, right?
Well, no.
Not unless you really think that a man who has never boxed professionally in his life is going to beat a man who stayed undefeated for two decades. Maybe you think that a 40-year-old Mayweather may have slipped enough to give the hard-hitting Southpaw a chance to knock him stiff. Or, perhaps you are a believer in McGregor’s power as he has decimated just about everyone he has faced in the Octagon (well, not Nate Diaz). All of these scenarios are perfectly plausible if you haven’t watched boxing over the past twenty years. Nevertheless, a closer look at the line reveals some pretty bizarre things that might catch you off guard.
For one, McGregor being a +400 underdog to Mayweather’s -720 was better than Adrian Broner’s odds to beat Mikey Garcia when the fight was first announced. Broner — a former four division would champion — opened as a +540 against Garcia. It’s a line that was completely ridiculous and has since come down to a far more reasonable +200.
According to odds shark.com, McGregor won’t be the biggest betting underdog that Mayweather has faced. Mayweather was a huge favorite against Andre Berto (-3000) and his first meeting with Marcos Maidana (-900). He was about as big of a favorite as he currently is against McGregor when paired with Miguel Cotto (-700), Robert Guerrero (-600) and the rematch with Marcos Maidana (-600).
The mere suggestion that a man who has no professional experience in a boxing ring has a better shot at beating Floyd Mayweather than former world champions is bizarre. But that’s the way of the world. Somehow, those who have watched Conor McGregor in the Octagon believe that he possesses the raw talent to take Mayweather out. Also, those people tend to forget that McGregor struggled mightily in the striking department against Nate Diaz on two occasions. Granted, Diaz had a decent size advantage, but it doesn’t take away the fact that McGregor was there to be hit. If Diaz could land on McGregor, why wouldn’t Mayweather turn this into a counterpunching clinic?
We’re in a strange era of combat sports where social media has managed to turn a significant underdog into a future hall of famer. How, exactly, does this happen? It’s a combination of talking heads who know little about boxing giving their two cents on the fight along with the use of 10-15 second highlight clips to create an environment where someone is unbeatable. Think about it, every McGregor video you have seen is of him destroying his opponent. Violent finishes against Eddie Alvarez and Jose Aldo are enhanced dramatically when looped on social media. Not that these victories weren’t extraordinary feats in MMA. However, it doesn’t give you the big picture when it comes to McGregor’s striking ability. When clips from all of his fights are sewn together, it paints a portrait of a world beater. But go back and watch both Diaz fights and, if you’ve never seen McGregor fight, you’ll likely scoff at the notion that he can beat McGregor.
If you put a highlight package together of a baseball player that shows him hit 30 home runs, he’ll look like the MVP. However, if you put together a series of clips that show his terrible plate discipline and the reason why he’s batting around the Mendoza Line, that part of his game will be enhanced. Texas Rangers Joey Gallo is the perfect example of a baseball player who can hit a ball a country mile but struggles with pitch selection and hitting the ball into the gaps.
And when everyone sees these clips of McGregor slamming his fists into the faces of his opponents, an image of a guy who could hurt Mayweather becomes clear. As for Mayweather, his highlight package isn’t nearly impressive as McGregor’s nor does it capture the defensive nuances that have made him one of the sport’s greatest to ever lace up a pair of gloves.
When you combine that with the popularity of the UFC, the age difference and the fact that people really, really, really despise how Mayweather fights, you have a recipe that leads to a lot of money coming in on Conor McGregor. That’s the reason why the gap between the two fighters with the oddsmakers continues to close.
The fact is that far too many people are miseducated about boxing and the ones with the biggest platforms to speak on this lopsided mismatch are completely uneducated about both sports. If you don’t really watch boxing, you don’t understand what got Mayweather to 49-0. If don't you watch McGregor, then you don’t see the things that he does which are great for MMA striking — where you have to worry about so many other things aside from the fists of your opponent — but will spell his demise against a boxer with a decent pedigree.
Either way, the fight is coming and none of us can hide from it. McGregor will have a ton of fans on his side who will continue to believe that he can dominate in any sport, if he tried to. Mayweather, despite being in remarkable condition, will be “old” with “brittle” hands and a guy that McGregor can finish off with one lead left hand that, somehow, Mayweather won’t see coming.
Is it impossible? No. Improbable? Yes. But that’s no excuse why these betting lines are unbelievably close. Maybe people should #WatchMoreBoxing
