by Cliff Rold

In the 00s, a pair of brutal warriors gave us a brutal trilogy. There were no titles on the line. They didn’t need any.

It was the defining rivalry of the decade at 140 lbs.

Does Jr. Welterweight have its heir to Arturo Gatti-Mickey Ward this weekend? It has some of the same ingredients and a few that rivalry didn’t. Both men make good fights; they can both punch.

Unlike Gatti-Ward, this isn’t a rivalry of men at the end or even past their primes. We could see a brief, explosive affair, a war of attrition, or a slow building war.

It’s almost impossible to think anything we see will be disappointing on HBO Saturday night (9:45 PM EST/PST).  

Let’s go the report card.

Lucas Matthysse
Age: 32
Title/Previous Titles: None
Height: 5’6 ½ 
Weight: 139 lbs.

Hails from: Junin, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Record: 36-3, 34 KO
Rankings: #1 (BoxingScene, TBRB, Ring), #2 (ESPN), #3 (BoxRec)
Record in Major Title Fights: 0-1 (3-1, 3 KO in interim title fights)
Current/Former World Champions Faced: 7 (Vivian Harris TKO4; Zab Judah L12; DeMarcus Corley TKO8; Devon Alexander L10; Humberto Soto RTD5; Lamont Peterson TKO3; Danny Garcia L12)

Vs.

Ruslan Provodnikov 


Age: 30


Titles: None
Previous Titles: WBO Light Welterweight (2013-14) 

Height: 5’6
Weight: 139.5

Hails from: Beryozovo, Russia
Record: 24-3, 17 KO

Rankings: #3 (BoxingScene, Ring), #6 (TBRB, ESPN), #8 (BoxRec)
Record in Major Title Fights: 1-2, 1 KO

Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 6 (Javier Jauregui TKO8; DeMarcus Corley UD12; Timothy Bradley L12; Mike Alvarado RTD10; Chris Algieri L12; Jose Luis Castillo TKO5)

Grades

Pre-Fight: Speed – Matthysse B; Provodnikov B-
Pre-Fight: Power – Matthysse A; Provodnikov B
Pre-Fight: Defense – Matthysse B; Provodnikov B-
Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Matthysse A; Provodnikov A

Of the two, Matthysse is the more technically developed fighter. He’s got a better jab, throws from more unorthodox angles, and works off the counter better.

Will any of that matter?

Matthysse may be more technically sound, but he’s ultimately a puncher. It’s his bread and butter. It’s what bailed him out last year against John Molina. It’s what made him appear to be the most fearsome man at 140 until Danny Garcia came along.

He’s not going to get on his toes and make Provodnikov chase him like Chris Algieri did. He’s not going to sit in the pocket and pick away at the Russian, outboxing him intelligently like Mauricio Herrera.

At some point, Matthysse will stand and fight him. Those points will multiply. That’s when this thing will get good...and potentially dangerous for Matthysse.

There was a moment in Provodnikov’s win over Alvarado, right before he took over for good and put the Mile High banger away. Alvarado caught Provodnikov with a monster, flush right hand. Slobber dripped from the jaws of Provodnikov the way it does from a pit bull.

That’s the kind of animal Provodnikov can be in the ring. Timothy Bradley escaped him with speed and boxing and a little luck. His heavy hands, body attack, and relentless pressure will find Matthysse more than they did Bradley.

It’s going to come down to who can take more. Matthysse has shown a good beard but he was down twice against Molina and once against Garcia. Provodnikov appears a better hitter than both. That said, do the blows of Alvarado equate to Matthysse? Has Provodnikov ever been hit the way Matthysse will hit him? 

When Matthysse starts landing the right hand behind the jab, does it freeze Provodnikov enough to let Matthysse get the room he needs to mitigate punishment? Can he hurt Provodnikov?

These are the kinds of questions anyone who loves boxing can look forward to answering.

The Pick

This is going to be sensational in spots. Matthysse isn't crafty enough to stop a war breaking out. Provodnikov is well suited to war. The Russian can be outboxed. Even in a narrow loss to Bradley, it’s hard to say he was actually outfought. Both men will have moments and Matthysse should get off to a good start. Late in the fight, the war tilts in Provodnikov’s favor. The pick here is Provodnikov on a late stoppage. 

Report Card and Staff Picks 2015: 20-5

Cliff’s Notes…

Matthysse-Provodnikov isn’t the only interesting fight on the docket…HBO, via split telecast, will also air Terrence Crawford (25-0, 17 KO) as he attempts a title in a second weight class. The lineal Lightweight king will face Thomas Dulorme (22-1, 14 KO) for a vacant WBO title at Jr. Welterweight. Crawford won't be boiling down and has a frame well suited to at least 140 lbs. The extra pounds make him even quicker and stronger, allowing him to put together an impressive performance en route to a decision win…On Showtime (10 PM EST/7 PM PST), former Light Heavyweight title challenger Andrzej Fonfara (26-3, 15 KO) gets big name former Middleweight beltholder Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. (48-1-1, 32 KO). Barring judging chicanery, Fonfara is a man more natural to Light Heavyweight who has had to work hard to be good and had nothing handed to him. Chavez, unless he's matured dramatically from where he was in the Vera fights, will get outworked here. Fonfara will get the decision he earns.

Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene, a founding member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com