by Cliff Rold

The Olympic men’s boxing alumni of 2012 is rapidly taking their place at the head of the class. Four gold medalists from those Games currently hold major titles with heavyweight Anthony Joshua emerging as a potential megastar.

The United States didn’t medal in London but their participants are finding their place in the paid ranks. Rau’Shee Warren has already won and lost a bantamweight title, Joseph Diaz is closing in on a mandatory opportunity, and Jose Ramirez has become a major ticket draw in central California. The man viewed during and coming out of 2012 as America’s biggest talent, Errol Spence, now gets his chance to fulfill his promise.

Spence travels to the UK Saturday (Showtime, 5 PM EST/2 PM PST) for easily the toughest fight of his career to date on paper.

Kell Brook returns to defend his title for the first time since March 2016 after a failed attempt at the middleweight titles of Gennady Golovkin last September. He’ll have a hot crowd on his side for what looks like his most difficult welterweight battle since winning his belt from Shawn Porter in 2014.

Does Brook have any hangover from the Golovkin loss in terms of coming back down in weight and recovering from a broken orbital bone? Has Spence been adequately prepared for this fight and what’s his chin like against a world-class foe?

Answers are imminent.      

Let’s go to the report card. 

The Ledgers

Kell Brook
Age: 31
Title: IBF Welterweight (2014-Present, 3 Defenses)
Previous Titles: None
Height: 5’9
Weight: 146 ½ lbs.
Hails from: Sheffield, Yorkshire, United Kingdom
Record: 36-1, 25 KO, 1 KOBY
Rankings: #2 (Ring, Boxing Monthly), #3 (BoxingScene, TBRB, ESPN), #5 (BoxRec)
Record in Major Title Fights: 4-1, 3 KO, 1 KOBY
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: Lovemore N’Dou UD12; Vyacheslav Senchenko TKO4; Shawn Porter MD12; Gennady Golovkin TKO by 5

Vs.

Errol Spence
Age: 27
Title/Previous Titles: None
Height: 5’9 ½
Weight: 146 ½ lbs.
Hails from: Dallas, Texas
Record: 21-0, 18 KO
Rankings: #5 (TBRB, Boxing Monthly), #6 (ESPN), #7 (BoxingScene, Ring, BoxRec)
Record in Major Title Fights: First title opportunity
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: Chris Algieri TKO5

Grades
Pre-Fight: Speed – Brook B+; Spence B+
Pre-Fight: Power – Brook B+; Spence B+
Pre-Fight: Defense – Brook B; Spence B
Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Brook B+; Spence B

Brook has been where Spence is once upon a time. Early on, he was a clear talent to follow but a rough night with Carson Jones in 2012 left questions about his chin and durability. It also answered questions about his heart and marked a turning point for him. It was the sort of gut check Spence hasn’t faced yet. It leaves a question of whether or not Spence might be skipping a step in his development.

The same question hovered over Joshua before he defeated Wladimir Klitschko a few weeks ago. Joshua’s people gambled on his readiness now and hit the flush. Spence’s team is doing the same thing. Making this fight now say they think they have the goods.

On the eye test, Spence so far has made the grade. His gradual development since turning pro in 2012 has seen him develop an impressive offensive arsenal. The southpaw is more educated banger than slick boxer since turning pro, cultivating a style built on a vicious body attack. He’ll likely be the aggressor for most of the night with Brook attempting to work off his long jab and use the ring.

Brook knows what it’s like to see pressure. Golovkin and Porter brought it all night, if with strongly different approaches. Spence will be more like Golovkin, looking to jab and work short, exacting shots. Brook can go to the body but he’s often a head hunter and is willing to clinch inside.

In terms of defense, both men are there to be hit. Spence has shown a penchant for being caught with blind left hooks as he presses and could still do more in terms of head movement. Brook’s head movement has improved over the years but he still can be caught stepping straight back. This is the sort of fight where we could see both men rocked while pursuing their own offensive advantage.

It’s hard to tell who’s faster but the power edge probably leans to Spence. That doesn’t mean Spence can catch better than Brook and until we see his beard tested, a full picture of his intangibles is hard to determine. Brook took some big shots from Golovkin and handled his share so Spence is unlikely to ice him with an early bomb. He’s going to have to multiply the punishment to win. Conversely, Brook has to use his feet to frustrate Spence as he comes forward. Spence might have an edge in reach but his need to get close could play to Brook who is more comfortable at range.    

Based on the weigh-in, Brook looks healthy and his move back to welterweight comfortable. As to the effect of the Golovkin loss, Brook’s team pulled him out before it could become an extended beating. The recipe for a hangover probably isn’t there.

The better man will win.

The Pick

In a fight where lots of scenarios can be envisioned, a lot rides on whether Spence is as good as he looks. So far, we have some knockouts over men with usually durable chins and a pasting of Chris Algieri. While the Algieri win was impressive, Algieri didn’t have much for Spence to worry about. Brook does. He can box and he has pop. He also has an experience edge. However, if Spence handles the incoming, he has the perfect style to undo Brook. His activity, body work, and combinations will wear on Brook as the rounds tick off. The pick here is Spence to overcome some moments of adversity to break Brook down for a stoppage in the final third of the fight.

Report Card Picks 2017: 14-8

Cliff’s Notes…

This isn’t the only quality fight on Saturday…On the undercard of Brook-Spence, to be live streamed on YouTube and Facebook, George Groves (25-3, 18 KO) will face Fedor Chudinov (14-1, 10 KO) for the vacant WBA strap at super middleweight. By all rights, Chudinov should be the defending champion; a debatable decision loss in his rematch with Felix Sturm last year ended a short reign. Groves is in his fourth title shot and maybe his last, best chance at gold. Judged on film, Groves appears to be the quicker, sharper fighter but Chudinov is persistent, active, and works the body well. It’s a close fight on paper but with Groves on home turf, sentiment could be a difference in close rounds. The pick is Groves by decision…In Panama, airing in the US on TyC (11 PM EST), we have a battle between former WBA bantamweight titlist Anselmo Moreno (36-5-1, 12 KO) and former WBC super bantamweight titlist Julio Ceja (30-2, 27 KO). Both enter off their first career stoppage losses and Ceja has the edge in power and youth. Moreno has less time on his side and needs a win to keep himself relevant entering a new division. Moreno is coming off a loss to one of the best fighters in the world and should still have enough skill to handle the less refined Ceja and is the pick here, but if his legs are fading this could be a high wire act.
 
Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene, a founding member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com