What do Oleksandr Usyk vs. Daniel Dubois, Tim Tszyu vs. Sebastian Fundora and Devin Haney vs. Ryan Garcia have in common?
The what-ifs.
The what-ifs are about what happened in two of those fights, and what happened before and after the third.
The what-ifs have left people – boxing fans and observers, and a few of the fighters themselves – wondering what would have happened had certain things happened differently, or not at all.
What if the referee had ruled that Usyk had been downed by a body shot from Dubois rather than a low blow?
What if Tszyu had not been accidentally cut by Fundora's elbow? Or what if Tszyu had suffered the injury but he and his team had decided not to fight on?
What if Garcia had actually made weight for the Haney fight? What if he hadn't used the performance-enhancing drug ostarine?
The thing about the what-ifs is that the past cannot be undone. Nor can the past be redone.
The other thing these three fights have in common? All will soon have rematches.
Haney and Garcia will likely face each other again if they win their respective bouts on May 2 in Times Square. Usyk-Dubois II was announced earlier this week for July 19 at Wembley Stadium in London. Fundora-Tszyu II was announced just the other day, potentially taking place in July or August.
In all of these matches, the what-ifs are storylines that will drive much of the buildup to the bouts – as they should be. But almost none of the what-ifs asked about their first fights will be answered by what happens in their second.
It is still fair to wonder: What if Dubois targets Usyk’s body again?
The debate over the fifth round of Usyk-Dubois I hasn’t been resolved in the nearly two years since their August 2023 fight in Poland.
Some feel Dubois landed a legal body shot on the beltline. Others, including the referee, saw it as an accidental foul that veered low. Each side has its own set of still-frames and GIFs to support their argument. It is boxing’s equivalent of the viral photo years ago of a dress, the one outfit that looked either blue and black, or white and gold.
Those who believe Dubois landed a legal blow also argue that he was deprived of a knockout win given how long Usyk remained on the canvas.
Here’s the thing: It’s wholly plausible that Usyk could have responded differently and beaten the count had the ref not called it a low blow. It’s also possible that he might not have. And even if Usyk had beaten the count, he wouldn’t have received the benefit of the nearly four minutes of recovery time, first on the mat and then on his feet, before the fight resumed.
It was otherwise Usyk’s fight, one that he won via ninth-round knockout. Afterward, he defeated Tyson Fury to become the undisputed heavyweight champion, vacated one of his four titles because he was contractually obligated to face Fury again, and defeated Fury in their rematch.
In the meantime, Dubois became the IBF titleholder. Usyk – the lineal champ and owner of the WBA, WBC and WBO belts – is still seen as the king of the heavyweights. The winner of this fight will be recognized as undisputed.
Dubois has grown in the two years since he and Usyk first met. He’s won three in a row over a solid slate of opponents, taking out Jarrell Miller, Filip Hrgovic and Anthony Joshua.
The what-ifs aren’t the only questions.
Namely: How will this improved version of Dubois fare against Usyk, who is now 38 years old but is still great enough to be the best heavyweight in the sport and one of the best boxers, pound-for-pound, in the world? Fury punished Usyk with body shots in their first fight. Will Dubois be able to do the same? And what awaits the winner? Joseph Parker deserves a shot. Fury is unsurprisingly teasing a return. Other contenders are vying for title fights.
In contrast to Dubois’ upward trajectory in the past couple of years, Tszyu’s stock has sharply dropped.
Much of that is because he is too ballsy for his own good.
Tszyu’s confidence is why he took on Fundora on short notice in the first place. Tszyu was supposed to defend his WBO world title against Keith Thurman in the March 2024 main event of a Premier Boxing Champions’ pay-per-view, the first show in its new relationship with Amazon’s Prime Video.
Thurman pulled out with an injury, and so Tszyu took on Fundora without having ample time to prepare for the challenge of a 6-foot-6 junior middleweight. He was essentially coming to the rescue for PBC and Amazon. And there was another benefit: Fundora had been scheduled to fight on the undercard for the vacant WBC belt. Him stepping in against Tszyu meant two titles would now be on the line.
Tszyu’s confidence seemed appropriate in the first two rounds. And then came the final seconds of the second. Tszyu’s head accidentally collided with Fundora’s elbow, opening a gruesome gash that sent blood pouring down Tszyu’s face and would affect his vision for the remaining 10 rounds.
Tszyu’s confidence – and his team’s failure to protect him – meant he went back out for the third and fourth rounds rather than tell the referee or ringside physician that he couldn’t see well due to the blood. The wound being from an accidental foul would have merited a “no contest” before four rounds were completed. By the time the fourth round ended, the fight was even in the eyes of the judges. By the time the fifth round was over, Fundora was ahead on two scorecards. He remained in the lead the rest of the way. Tszyu would’ve lost had they gone to a technical decision at any point from the fifth round on.
Tszyu’s confidence also meant he tried to return to the ring too early, before he’d fully recovered, for a fight with Vergil Ortiz Jnr. He wasn’t healed enough to get approved for that fight, though, and so he instead came back last October against the unbeaten but lesser-known IBF titleholder, Bakhram Murtazaliev.
If the cut was a big reason why Tszyu lost to Fundora, then that meant Tszyu and his team didn’t yet recognize that they needed to work on his defensive flaws. Murtazaliev capably exploited those, rocking Tszyu repeatedly, dropping him four times and stopping him in the third round. Tszyu returned last month with a confidence-builder, taking Joey Spencer out in four rounds. Spencer was a relatively safe choice for Tszyu to take whatever he’s been working on improving in training and sparring, and to test it out.
This Fundora rematch won’t be what their Round 3 could have otherwise been. It won’t even be Round 13, picking up from where they left off – albeit with Tszyu’s head and Fundora’s nose both healed.
Again, we are left with even more questions: How much did the significant damage Tszyu absorbed against Murtazaliev take out of him? Will Tszyu have improved enough, in terms of his skills and his style, in such a relatively short span? Will what worked against Fundora for those first two rounds no longer be as effective? How much has Fundora himself improved since?
Tszyu and Haney are facing similar (though not identical) circumstances.
Haney hasn’t fought since the loss to Garcia a year ago. Garcia’s use of the banned performance-enhancing drug ostarine meant that the majority decision loss for Haney was nullified, overturned into a “no contest.” The blemish is gone from Haney’s record. That doesn’t mean the fight – and its physical and mental toll – never happened.
Haney was knocked down three times and wobbled even more. Our last memory of him is someone who could be hit clean and hard, who had significant heart but was significantly hurt.
We don’t know how much of Haney’s struggles were due to Garcia being stronger from not boiling his body all the way down to 140lbs, and from the benefits of ostarine, which helps athletes lose weight without losing muscle mass.
And we won’t know – at least not when it comes to Garcia’s weight.
(Garcia is being drug tested for this Friday’s bout and, if his opponents are smart, he will be stringently tested for all subsequent matches. Although passing a competently designed drug-testing program doesn’t actually guarantee a fighter is clean, it is better than not being tested at all).
As for the weight, neither Haney nor Garcia is likely to return to junior welterweight. Garcia’s fight against Rolando Romero on May 2 is being contested in the welterweight division; he tipped the scales on May 1 just shy of 147lbs. Haney’s bout with Jose Ramirez has a contractual limit of 144lbs; Haney weighed in at 143.
Wins this Friday for both Haney and Garcia should send them into a sequel later this year. Haney has understandably decried Garcia for cheating – Haney even sued Garcia before dropping the litigation in order to set up their rematch – but he also needed to point a finger back at himself.
“I’d like to show the world a new and improved Devin Haney from before,” Haney said earlier this week. “I had to go back to the drawing board and focus on the mistakes I was making and become a better version of myself.”
Did Haney have enough time to make those improvements? Or is there still more work that needs to be done? Will all of his self-reflection and self-improvement not matter if the full welterweight version of Garcia shows up even faster and stronger?
For all three of these matches, the what-ifs will be a big part of the pre-fight coverage and conversation. They are good questions. But they are not the questions that will matter most.
It’s intriguing to wonder “What if?” I’m even more interested in what’s next.
David Greisman, who has covered boxing since 2004, is on Twitter @FightingWords2. David’s book, “Fighting Words: The Heart and Heartbreak of Boxing,” is available on Amazon.