by Cliff Rold

Manny Pacquiao is an easy fighter to take for granted.

One day, sometime sooner than later, Pacquiao will be viewed entirely through the lens of history. His talent, remarkable longevity, and fairly consistent level of opposition, all the things we take for granted now, will be part of his full picture of greatness.

The bad taste so many had from his showdown with Floyd Mayweather, another fighter taken for granted as part of a childish polarizing of the boxing fan base that resembles the partisan split among cable news networks, will ebb. The fatigue of years of his presence for some will be replaced by admonishments to new generations that their guy, whoever that may be, couldn’t have beat Pacquiao.

That’s always how it goes.

This weekend, excitement is subdued for Pacquiao’s return from the retirement that never really was (PPV, 9 PM EST/6 PM PST). Part of that is the match. Part of it might be that the world just has more pressing matters at hand.

It’s funny though when you look at Pacquiao in 2016. He’ll only have fought twice this year. Take a look at the latest welterweight top ten at TBRB and you’ll see that it’s once more than most of the top ten. It’s also his second time this year against someone consensus rated in the top ten of the division.

That’s once more than several other rated welterweights and twice more than others. Pacquiao is 37 and his perceived lesser fights this year are coming more consistently and frequently than younger men whose career resumes can’t carry his bucket and aren’t active enough to dream of catching up.

Manny Pacquiao is an easy fighter to take for granted. Is this aging Pacquiao a fighter who Jessie Vargas can take, period?                

Let’s go the report card.

The Ledgers

Manny Pacquiao ?

Age: 37

Current Titles: None

?Previous Titles: Lineal/WBC World Flyweight (1998-99, 1 Defense); IBF Super Bantamweight )2001-03, 4 Defenses); Lineal/Ring World Featherweight (2003-05, 2 Defenses); Lineal/Ring/WBC World Jr. Lightweight (2008); WBC Lightweight (2008-09); Lineal/Ring World Jr. Welterweight (2009-10); WBC Light Middleweight (2010); WBO Welterweight, (2009-12, 3 Defenses; 2014-15, 1 Defense); TBRB/Lineal Welterweight (2016; Retired)

?Height: 5’5 ½?

Weight: 144 ¾ lbs.

Hails from: General Santos City, Cotabato del Sur, Philippines?

Record: 58-6-2, 38 KO, 3 KOBY

Rankings: #1 (BoxRec); #2 (Boxing Monthly)

Record in Major Title Fights: 19-3-2, 11 KO, 1 KOBY (including Lineal title Fights)

Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 20 (Chatchai Sasakul KO8; Medgoen Singsurat TKO3; Lehlo Ledwaba KO6; Agapito Sanchez Tech. Draw 6; Jorge Eliecer Julio TKO2; Marco Antonio Barrera TKO11, UD12; Juan Manuel Marquez D12, SD12, MD12, KO by 6; Erik Morales L12, TKO10, KO3; Oscar Larios UD12; David Diaz TKO9; Oscar De La Hoya RTD8; Ricky Hatton KO2; Miguel Cotto TKO12; Joshua Clottey UD12; Antonio Margarito UD12; Shane Mosley UD12; Timothy Bradley L12, UD12, UD12; Brandon Rios UD12; Chris Algieri UD12; Floyd Mayweather L12)??

Vs.

Jessie Vargas

Age: 27

Titles: WBO Welterweight (2016-Present, 1st Attempted Defense)

Previous Titles: WBA Super Lightweight (2014-15, 2 Defenses)

Height: 5’10  ?

Weight: 146 ½ lbs.

Hails from: Las Vegas, Nevada

Record: 27-1, 10 KO

Rankings: #7 (BoxingScene) #8 (TBRB, ESPN, Ring, Boxing Monthly, BoxRec)

Record in Major Title Fights: 4-1, 1 KO

Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 5 (Vivian Harris RTD1; Steve Forbes UD10; Khabib Allakhverdiev UD12; Antonio DeMarco UD12; Timothy Bradley L12)

Grades

Pre-Fight: Speed – Pacquiao A-; Vargas B

Pre-Fight: Power – Pacquiao B+; Vargas B-

Pre-Fight: Defense – Pacquiao B; Vargas B

Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Pacquiao A; Vargas B

If Pacquiao weren’t 37, would this fight be seen as all that competitive? He is 37 and in most corners this is seen as the sort of in-house Top Rank match that keeps a star afloat. Part of that is about the performance of Vargas in previous fights.

With a little lesser luck, he’s got more than a loss to Timothy Bradley. The Bradley loss is memorable because of a late shot that had Bradley in bad trouble. Some questionable officiating made that ending more dramatic than it should have been, obscuring that Bradley had dominated the fight for most of the first eleven rounds and two minutes.

He also got the benefit of wider than they looked scores against Allakhverdiev and Anton Novikov. Plenty felt he lost the former and there has been a perception that Vargas’ home base being in Vegas gives him the benefit of the doubt when he fights in that town.

That’s where they are fighting this weekend and where youth could be a factor. Vargas looked good, better than he ever has really, against Sadam Ali earlier this year. His activity was good, his body shots were sustained, and he broke his man down with steady efficiency.

Ali is a far cry from Pacquiao. This is the best opponent Vargas has ever faced. The reverse isn’t true. Pacquiao should still have an edge in speed and will certainly have the edge in power. Vargas isn’t a huge puncher and tends to fight inside and at mid-range. Both areas will allow Pacquiao chances to land.

Vargas will have to be able to take Pacquiao’s shots and force him to fight three minutes of every round to have a shot here. Sometimes Vargas doesn’t throw enough. Here, that’s an invitation to a fighter whose power has almost become underrated.

Pacquiao hasn’t scored a knockout since 2009. Historically, that says a lot about size. Men who move up enough usually see their knockout numbers fall at some point. In Pacquiao’s case, he’s also been fighting men who just don’t have knockout losses. It doesn’t mean he can’t still punch. He shook Mayweather a couple of times in rare moments of success, has wobbled Bradley in their series, and bounced Chris Algieri around like a rubber ball.

Even if his knockout-less streak continues, Pacquiao has shown he can box. He outboxed Bradley in their fights and still has excellent foot speed. Vargas has to use his height and strength to try to back him up and keep him from countering when he’d near the ropes.

Can he do it?

The Pick

Pacquiao is at a point in his career where he could take easier fights than this and still sell some, especially if he took the show on the road to places that didn’t see him in his prime. Vargas isn’t an elite welterweight, as yet, and his being in the top ten doesn’t necessarily say good things about the depth in the division right this second. He’s still a young, hungry guy with less to lose here and some evident talent. Someone is going to push Pacquiao over the cliff but Vargas doesn’t look like the guy. He’s not quite quick enough, not quite active enough, and doesn’t appear to have the sort of power that can put Pacquiao into a cautious approach. Vargas should last the route but he won’t land enough to make he case for the judges. The pick is Pacquiao by decision.    

Report Card and Staff Picks 2016: 36-13

Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel, the Yahoo Pound for Pound voting panel, and the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com