By Jake Donovan/Cliff Rold

In case anyone reading has been living under a rock, something called the “Super Six” is set to begin this Saturday night.  It can’t get here soon enough.  While there is always rich argument to be had about just which of boxing’s seventeen weight divisions is the best, what is happening at Super Middleweight will allow it a special place in the argument…especially if the thing can hold together as intended.

In recent years, pound for pound debates have often replaced, or at least hampered, serious discussion about what really matters most of the time.  Fighters fight in weight divisions and there are far more than ten excellent fighters in this wonderful game.  There are serious, and fringe contenders.  Enough to make up a top ten in every class, enough struggling for that first major belt, that big break, which can get them to wherever it is they are trying to go.

In that light, BoxingScene’s Jake Donovan and Cliff Rold together begin a new occasional series examining the individual divisions based on regular ratings kept here at the site.  What better place to start then 168 lbs.

Let the discussion begin.   

World Super Middleweight Champion: Vacant

Rold: Since Joe Calzaghe exited the division to chase dollars at Light Heavyweight, Super Middleweight has been without a clear champion.  One question heading into the “Super Six” is whether the tournament can fill this slot.  There are some who feel such questions archaic.  Call it lineage, call it the ‘real’ champ; the shortened modern schedule makes it hard to produce the sort of fights necessary to make such declarations comfortable for all.  There are even those who cling to the played out notion that an ‘undisputed’ champion must hold a certain number of belts bearing distinct brands.  It doesn’t need to be the case…but a man with a belt, not in the tournament, could have a lot to say about whether the vacant sign is turned off.  IBF titlist Lucian Bute, if he stays in class and continues to win, is a likely huge roadblock to a clear World champion.  If he were to lose later this year to Librado Andrade, given Andrade’s decisive defeat to Kessler in 2007, then the situation clears up.  I’d bet on Bute hanging around and this slot still being open when the tournament closes.  Jake?

Donovan: There’s certainly a case to be made that regardless of what transpires in the Super Six, the road to Super Middleweight lineage still runs through Lucian Bute. Few will dispute that he’s no worse than the second best in the world at this weight. However, one fighter running the tables in the tournament can considerably change that. Mikkel Kessler is favored to win; five straight wins over this bunch in the next 18 months would far and away make him the best in the world in the division. Why? Because no matter how well Bute performs in next month’s rematch with Andrade, his options beyond November 28 run extremely thin. Wins over Sakio Bika, Robert Stieglitz and Karoly Balszay keep him in the mix, but will pale in comparison to what will be achieved by the winner of the Super Six. With that, can you still make the case than 1 needs to face 2 in order to crown a king when the gap is so great between the two? Simply put, Bute will need to do more than tread water beyond Andrade if he’s to legitimately stake his claim as a roadblock to super middleweight supremacy. 

1. Mikkel Kessler (42-1, 32 KO, WBA, 2 Defenses)
 Last Contest: September 12, 2009, TKO4 Gusmyl Perdomo (16-3, 10 KO)
 Next Contest: November 21, 2009 vs. #8 Andre Ward

Donovan: From the moment Calzaghe announced his retirement, Kessler has been looked to as the division’s de facto leader. After a year of being benched due to promotional issues, the potentially great Dane finally has a chance to live up to the role. He’s a considerable favorite to win the Super Six, and for good reason; remove Calzaghe from his resume, and he boasts several respectable wins, while barely losing a round along the way. It also says a lot about his confidence that he’s already taken his act on the road (Anthony Mundine in Australia, Calzaghe in Wales, and Ward in Oakland come next month) even though he’s a huge draw at home.

Rold: Having unified belts once before, while cleaning out a string of top ten contenders, Kessler has maintained to top spot since Calzaghe for many of the reasons Jake cites.  It has become tighter though.  Froch’s wins over Pascal and Taylor were of high quality.  Bute, though he struggled far more with Andrade than Kessler did, has also performed well against current and former top ten foes like Alejandro Berrio and Sakio Bika.  Kessler has a chance here to pull away again, particularly if he and Froch both win their opening bouts and wind up in a unification showdown in round two of the “Super Six.”

2. Lucian Bute (24-0, 19 KO, IBF, 3 Defenses)
 Last Contest: March 13, 2009, TKO4 Fulgencio Zuniga (23-4-1, 20 KO)
 Next Contest: November 28, 2009 vs. #6 Librado Andrade (28-2, 21 KO)

Rold: As Jake cited above, even if Bute were to meet and unify the WBO belt to his IBF crown, the fighters involved aren’t regarded well enough to make a big difference.  Allan Green could be an interesting challenger but is largely untested.  The talent exists in the “Super Six” to see Bute fall in the ratings even with consistent victory.  There is a big exception.  Two years can be a long time.  Should the winner of Kelly Pavlik-Paul Williams at Middleweight move up to meet him, he would have the sort of high profile, marquee foe who keeps him right where he’s at.  There is also the chance of a potential Canadian mega-fight with Light Heavyweight titlist Jean Pascal which could see him gone from the class altogether.  It’s a lot of ‘if’ before he finishes with Andrade a second time.

Donovan: The one upside to Bute’s exclusion from the Super Six is the fact that he could quickly become an HBO centerpiece, should he once again get past Andrade (this time sans controversy). I fully expect Bute to be the latest non-US titlist to have Golden Boy become his stateside promoter.  Assuming that becomes the case, I can easily envision HBGOlden Boy running with the claim that they have the one SMW that matters, and that the Super Six winner is uncrowned until he faces Bute. It won’t make him #1 and perhaps won’t prevent him from falling in the ratings as Cliff suggests, but it will certainly make him a hell of a lot richer. Of course, he still has to get past Andrade.

3. Carl Froch (25-0, 20 KO, WBC, 1 Defense)
 Last Contest: April 25, 2009, TKO12 #4 Jermain Taylor (28-3-1, 17 KO)
 Next Contest: October 17, 2009 vs. #7 Andre Dirrell (18-0, 13 KO)

Donovan: The returns are still mixed on Froch’s potential greatness and rightfully so. The talent was always evident, but the Brit was short on notable results. That changed last December in his title-winning thriller over Jean Pascal in one of the best fights of 2008. Where mixed emotions set in revolve around his most notable win to date. His come-from-behind last second bailout knockout of Jermain Taylor was inspiring, but it was a come-from-behind for a reason – it was his ability to outlast, not outfight, a stamina-plagued Taylor that led to his memorable win. He’ll need to take heed to his mum’s advice of not waiting until the last 14 seconds to produce the same magic against Dirrell.

Rold: I had the Taylor fight much closer than most heading into the final round and think it was more than outlasting.  After he got off the floor in the third, Froch methodically kept piling the punishment.  His punch output went up in what felt like direct proportion to Taylor’s decrease in activity.  It was a reminder of why fights last twelve rounds.  Still, two big wins is not a deep resume and at 32 is Froch likely to enjoy this prime period long?  Jake’s right though… if he falls too far behind against Dirrell, styles could dictate a long night and imminent fall in the ratings for Froch.

4. Jermain Taylor (28-3-1, 17 KO)
 Last Contest: April 25, 2009, TKOBY12 #3 Carl Froch (25-0, 20 KO)
 Next Contest: October 17, 2009 vs. Arthur Abraham (30-0, 24 KO)

Rold: While this is a solid top ten, it says a lot about what the men below this slot have not done yet to find Taylor here.  His only win since 2007, versus 2000 U.S. Olympic teammate Jeff Lacy, wasn’t overly impressive.  And yet Taylor must get credit for scheduling; next to Welterweight Miguel Cotto, has there been a fighter with a tougher slate over the last few years?  In each of his last nine fights, he faced a current or former champion beginning with future Hall of Famers Bernard Hopkins and Winky Wright.  His status as the former Middleweight champion, and the walks through hell both Pavlik and Froch were forced to endure to beat him, are also a plus. The pluses won’t count much longer if he doesn’t start winning though and it must be asked: if he’s knocked out again by Abraham, does he finish the tournament or could retirement call?

Donovan: I have to admit, seeing Taylor at #4 caused me to do a double take. But Cliff is correct: while losing three out of his last four doesn’t help, who he’s faced has to be taken into consideration. It makes you realize how loaded this division is on paper, but also how short it’s been on results. Speaking of which… Taylor needs a win as bad as anyone in the Super Six. Even with the round-robin format, this weekend is basically win or go home for Taylor. A closely contested loss to Abraham might be forgiven; one more brutal knockout loss could create a demand not necessarily for Taylor’s retirement, but for an alternate to take his place in order to maintain the tremendous amount of buzz surrounding the tournament.

5. Sakio Bika (27-3-2, 17 KO)
 Last Contest: July 30, 2009, KO1 Nestor Casanova (22-15, 9 KO)
 Next Contest: TBA

Donovan: Talk about a career revival. One of the few fighters to truly benefit from The Contender without the backdrop of a con job. No shame in losses to Calzaghe and Bute, but forever missing were wins over anyone worth a damn (though he was competitive in his aborted bout with Markus Beyer). The Contender helped change that, as did his blitzing of fellow reality star Peter Manfredo. However, whereas others may benefit from being able to cherry pick while waiting out the Super Six, Bika is perhaps the one SMW affected by the exclusion; nobody has been in a hurry to face the scrappy Aussie boxer, and don’t expect that to change unless his affiliation with co-promoter Golden Boy can translate into leverage of any kind.

Rold: In religion, revivals are interesting events.  They swoop in, raise the local ethos, and then bail.  It’s been the fate of most “Contender” winners and, after a brief uptick, is settling on Bika.  As Jake noted, no one is in a hurry to face him and regular activity has never been a strong suit of the reality show winners (winner being the key word; losers have done well in terms of activity).  Bika needs his people to do whatever they can to get him a crack at whomever holds the WBO belt next year to prop up his relevancy. 

6. Librado Andrade (28-2, 21 KO)
 Last Contest: March 4, 2009, UD12 Vitali Tsypko (22-3, 12 KO)
 Next Contest: November 28, 2009 vs. Lucian Bute (24-0, 19 KO)

Rold: How can anyone not love Librado Andrade.  The “collector of time” busts his ass in the ring with a limited skill set and is never boring.  To beat him, so far, has taken being one of the division’s absolute best.  Anything less, be it Yusuf Mack, Robert Steiglitz, or Tsypko, and Andrade leaves the winner.  With a different official in the ring last year, he might well have been a winner against Bute the first time around though he was well behind on the cards.  A fight with Bika, whether Andrade wins the Bute rematch or not, would be a savage show. 

Donovan: The thing you have to love about Andrade is that he doesn’t pretend to be anyone else than who he actually is. His quote at the end of the Bute fight was classic. “Anyone can outbox me, but nobody can outlast me.” And it takes a hell of a boxing clinic in order to best him – the reason why Kessler and Bute are the only fighters to tack an L on his record. Even if he loses again to Bute, opportunities will still be aplenty. His fighting style alone guarantees that; having both Golden Boy AND Al Haymon in your corner is practically akin to a lifetime membership in HBO’s rotation. The reward – as well as the belief (false hope?) that he can be outboxed so long as you don’t get caught - will justify the risk of facing him, which is always good news for boxing fans.

7. Andre Dirrell (18-0, 13 KO)
 Last Contest: March 28, 2009, RTD6 Derrick Findley (13-3, 8 KO)
 Next Contest: October 17, 2009 vs. #2 Carl Froch (25-0, 20 KO)

Donovan: We’ll find out for sure by Saturday evening (early Sunday morning UK time) whether or not the ’04 US Olympic Bronze medalist belongs this high in the ratings. His resume doesn’t quite support the rating, but appears eager for the huge step up in class against #3 Froch. He boasts the skills and athleticism to pull off the upset; the biggest question (aside from his chin) is whether or not he possesses the discipline to stick to what it will take to outlast what figures to be a relentless Froch.

Rold: Jake’s right.  Dirrell needs to prove he belongs this high in the ratings.  The formula used to baseline the ratings, which factors in his placement with the sanctioning bodies, can explain his spot.  It’s still more speculative than tangible.  His best wins, versus Anthony Hanshaw and Victor Oganov, are solid building blocks but he’s going low flame to fire this weekend.  Dirrell, and Ward below him, are both physical talents and were exceptional amateurs, but also inexperienced with many aspects of the pro game.   Their inclusion in the “Super Six” could appear either a stroke of genius or a disaster by the time it’s all over.

8. Andre Ward (20-0, 13 KO)
 Last Contest: September 12, 2009, TKO3 Shelby Pudwill (22-4-1, 9 KO)
 Next Contest: November 21, 2009 vs. #1 Mikkel Kessler (42-1, 32 KO)

Rold: A case could certainly be made to have Ward a little higher in the ratings and flipped with Dirrell.  His best win, over veteran Edison Miranda in May, was less than thrilling but Ward showed poise and maturity while enduring a cut.  What he hasn’t showed enough of, barring his walkover against Pudwill, is anything to get excited about.  The 2004 Light Heavyweight Gold Medalist is more science than sensation so far.  The opponents laid out in front of him should force more fire from him, particularly a Kessler who will be looking to test a chin still in question.

Donovan: Cliff is 100% correct. Ward’s resume looks good at first glance, but has yet to show anything that suggests he’s anything better than a long shot to win the tournament, and a question mark to even make the semi-finals. His resume is somewhat respectable, but hardly befitting of the last – and only active - American boxer to have captured Olympic gold.  Win, lose or draw, his November 21 showdown with Kessler instantly upgrades his credentials. A win goes a LOOOONG way towards silencing his critics, and even a loss can be dismissed as a learning experience, considering whom he’s facing. It’s what he takes out of next month’s experience that will truly dictate the fighter he becomes in 2010.

9. Robert Stieglitz (36-2, 22 KO, WBO, 0 Defenses)
 Last Contest: August 22, 2009, TKO11 #10 Karoly Balzsay (21-1, 15 KO)
 Next Contest: TBA

Donovan: This is the one name where at first glance you wonder how there isn’t another SMW out there more worthy of making the cut. But results speak for themselves. From April ’01 to July ’09, his resume is comical. But the upset over Balszay has the German right where he belongs on this list. He’s also a fighter that greatly benefits from the Super Six, considering his top three challengers are all occupied for the next 18 months or so. That said, Dennis Inkin is right behind Paul Smith as the next highest available contender. A fight between the two should spell the end of Stieglitz’ alphabet reign and stay in the SMW top 10.

Rold: What Jake said.  Take away Balzsay and Stieglitz is light on resume.  Then again, so is the rest of most of the top ten.  He did have a split of knockouts with former titlist Alejandro Berrio and his loss to Andrade last year was entertaining as well which isn’t all bad.  If he can hold his WBO belt for a while, he can strengthen his position.  

10. Karoly Balszay (20-1, 14 KO)
 Last Contest: August 22, 2009, TKOBY11 Robert Stieglitz (36-2, 22 KO)
 Next Contest: TBA

Rold: Most fighters already low rated would have dropped out altogether after a knockout loss.  Balzsay remained because, while he lost to Stieglitz, he had a quality win over the then-undefeated Denis Inkin two fights prior.  Only 30, Balzsay could do a lot with a rematch against Stieglitz but outside that his hands are fairly tied.  Whoever has the WBO belt will be a target for anyone at 168 trying to make a name while outside of the event which dominates the division’s landscape right now.

Donovan: Ah, not so fast Cliff. A repeat verdict in Bute-Andrade II means vacancies in the #1 and #2 slots in that alphabet’s ratings. Balzsay is rated high enough to sneak into a four-man box off when he’s ready to return. He’s certainly done for 2009 after the injuries sustained against Stieglitz, though by his own admission a welcome break. Promoter Klaus-Peter Kohl has a knack like no other promoter for scooping up enough fighters from 160-175 to always remain in the alphabet mix. Look for Balzsay to be involved in a sanctioned eliminator or title fight once he’s ready to return next year. It could be a Stieglitz rematch, or a two-fight trek towards the winner of Bute-Andrade II. In either direction, a return to the win column help keeps him afloat or at least within reach of our divisional top ten.

Exclusions?

Donovan: If you listen to Allan Green long enough, he’ll insist that he’s being overlooked here. His last performance and the substandard list of opponents gracing his resume suggest he’s rated just about right. Excuses for every subpar performance only go so far. Dennis Inkin is perhaps a notable win away from regaining entrance. If the odds hold true, then a win over Taylor should see Abraham undoubtedly crack the Top five. Robert Stieglitz gracing a Top Ten in any division isn’t immediately appealing, but still accurate. It’s a different story if Alejandro Berrio hasn’t been out of sight, out of mind. But having not fought in more than a year (and not won a meaningful fight in more than two years, when he beat Steiglitz for a title) rightfully has the Colombian on the outside looking in.

Rold: Even with a loss, Abraham could enter the ratings by next week and, had his second win over Miranda not been at a catchweight he’s probably already in.  There is a case to be made that Abraham was the best Middleweight in the world throughout his IBF title reign.  He never got the opportunities to prove it.  He will have at least three chances for proof coming up.  If and when he is added, and considering the action coming up this weekend, this will be a proven rather than, in part, potentially hot top ten. 

For BoxingScene’s latest full divisional ratings, log on to: https://www.boxingscene.com/forums/view.php?pg=boxing-ratings

Jake Donovan is the Managing Editor of Boxingscene.com and an award-winning member of the Boxing Writers Association of America. Contact Jake at JakeNDaBox@gmail.com ; Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel and the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com