by David P. Greisman

Sometimes deciding the Fighter of the Year is a matter of nomination. Too often, it involves a process of self-elimination.

Boxers lose. Boxers don’t fight often enough. Boxers don’t fight difficult enough opponents. This award isn’t what matters most to them — they want the right fights at the right time for the right price — but it does serve to validate what was already accomplished over the span of 12 months.

With about two months to go in 2016, and with the schedule for the remaining time left finally being fleshed out, we have a clearer indication of who the candidates are or could still be.

But first, let us recall at who the recent winners were:

- 2008: Manny Pacquiao (Boxing Writers Association of America, Ring Magazine, BoxingScene.com)
- 2009: Manny Pacquiao (BWAA, Ring, BoxingScene)
- 2010: Sergio Martinez (BWAA, Ring, BoxingScene)
- 2011: Andre Ward (BWAA, Ring, BoxingScene)
- 2012: Nonito Donaire (BWAA, BoxingScene), Juan Manuel Marquez (Ring)
- 2013: Floyd Mayweather Jr. (BWAA), Adonis Stevenson (Ring, BoxingScene)
- 2014: Terence Crawford (BWAA), Sergey Kovalev (Ring), Naoya Inoue (BoxingScene)
- 2015: Floyd Mayweather Jr. (BWAA, BoxingScene), Tyson Fury (Ring)

There are some who believe that we already know who 2016’s winner will be — or at least that we will know on Nov. 19, when Sergey Kovalev and Andre Ward fight in Las Vegas.

Kovalev or Ward winning the award would be based on that one fight, but their one fight is one of significance. Kovalev is one of the two best light heavyweights in the world, along with Adonis Stevenson. Ward is also seen as one of the top 175-pounders, even if his lone win of note in the division came against unbeaten contender Sullivan Barrera. That’s because Ward was previously the best fighter at 168 and is seen as one of the best boxers in the entire sport.

So is Kovalev, which gives their fight additional prestige. It is a fight between two top light heavyweights, two undefeated and accomplished fighters, and two of the best, pound-for-pound, in the world.

If the winner were named Fighter of the Year, it would be solely on the basis of this one bout. Kovalev’s 2016 to date saw him take an easy rematch over Jean Pascal, who’d faded in the 10 months since he and Kovalev first fought; and a unanimous decision over fringe contender Isaac Chilemba. Ward outpointed Barrera and then easily shut out lesser foe Alexander Brand.

We’re more often seeing Fighter of the Year awards based on one significant victory and several minor ones. The ideal, of course, is that the standout fighter strings together multiple good-to-great triumphs.

Pacquiao in 2008 beat Juan Manuel Marquez, David Diaz and Oscar De La Hoya. In 2009, he knocked out Ricky Hatton and stopped Miguel Cotto. In 2010, Sergio Martinez won the middleweight championship from Kelly Pavlik and then knocked Paul Williams out cold. In 2011, Ward outpointed Arthur Abraham and Carl Froch to become the true top fighter at super middleweight.

In 2012, Donaire won a vacant world title by beating Wilfredo Vazquez Jr., unified belts with a decision over Jeffrey Mathebula, beat another top junior featherweight with a stoppage of Toshiaki Nishioka, all of which sealed the deal even before he made quick work of the faded Jorge Arce to wrap up the year. Marquez, meanwhile, had outpointed Sergiy Fedchenko earlier in the year but otherwise got his recognition solely, and deservingly, for his stellar one-punch knockout of Manny Pacquiao.

Mayweather’s win in 2013 saw him beat Robert Guerrero for a title at welterweight and then go up to beat junior middleweight titleholder Canelo Alvarez. Stevenson, meanwhile, followed a rematch win over journeyman Darnell Boone with his one-round dethroning of light heavyweight champion Chad Dawson and then technical knockouts in defenses against Tavoris Cloud and Tony Bellew.

Crawford’s 2014 saw him take a world title from Ricky Burns, triumph in a battle with Yuriorkis Gamboa and then easily outpoint limited contender Ray Beltran. Kovalev had a pair of easy outings against unheralded foes Cedric Agnew and Blake Caparello before shutting out the legendary Bernard Hopkins to add two more titles to his collection. Inoue won a world title at 108, defended it and then went all the way up to 115 to beat one of the best there for another belt.

Last year, Mayweather’s triumph came on the strength of his clear victory over the other top fighter of this era, Pacquiao, with his finale against Andre Berto not mattering in the least. Fury, too, had one win of note, ending the long reign of heavyweight champion Wladimir Klitschko with a unanimous decision win; his technical knockout of Christian Hammer earlier in the year wasn’t a factor.

As for this year, going division by division:

There won’t be a heavyweight fighter of the year. Tyson Fury won’t be fighting. Wladimir Klitschko hasn’t fought yet. His proposed bout with Anthony Joshua may not happen. A win over Joshua or another potential foe, contender Lucas Browne, wouldn’t be enough. Ditto for Joshua were he to face Klitschko or contender Joseph Parker — and especially not chinny David Price — after winning a world title from Charles Martin and defending it against the limited Dominic Breazeale.

At cruiserweight, Oleksandr Usyk arrived with a remarkably easy title win over Krzysztof Glowacki but has only fought once this year. Fellow 200-pound beltholder Denis Lebedev could be a fringe candidate, with a unification win over Victor Ramirez earlier this year and an upcoming bout with unbeaten contender Murat Gassiev in December. Gassiev could similarly be on the list were he to unseat Lebedev.

We’ve already discussed 175 and Kovalev-Ward. At 168, the three top fighters haven’t done enough. If Badou Jack and James DeGale do actually end up meeting this year, then the winner of that unification bout will have gotten a good victory, albeit one less meaningful than what’s happening one division above them. Gilberto Ramirez was sidelined with an injury for part of the year, leaving his shutout of titleholder Arthur Abraham as his only appearance so far.

At 160, no top fighter has been willing to face Gennady Golovkin, who had to pass his time against Dominic Wade and Kell Brook. All Daniel Jacobs did to follow up his 2015 win over Peter Quillin was have a rematch with Sergio Mora; negotiations with Golovkin deferred that fight, if it happens, until next year. Canelo Alvarez won a circus sideshow with Amir Khan and then beat the weakest of the 154-pound titleholders, Liam Smith.

The only decent year among junior middleweights will belong to the winner of the Dec. 10 fight between titleholder Jermall Charlo and contender Julian Williams. Charlo topped former titleholder Austin Trout earlier in the year. Williams beat a much lesser foe in Marcello Matano.

At welterweight, Keith Thurman topped Shawn Porter but won’t fight again in 2016. Manny Pacquiao may receive some consideration for his rubber match victory over Timothy Bradley and then if he beats titleholder Jessie Vargas, who has a belt but has yet to prove himself as being a top 147-pounder (Vargas lost to Bradley last year). Vargas, however, would merit a spot were he to upset Pacquiao; his win over Sadam Ali earlier this year won him a vacant world title but will not be part of the discussion.

Terence Crawford unified two junior welterweight tiles in July when he easily out-boxed Viktor Postol. That would be his one big win for the year. He also stopped Hank Lundy in February and may appear again in December, perhaps against prospect Antonio Orozco.

No one at lightweight will make the list. At 130, perhaps Jezreel Corrales will be in the conversation if he follows his shocking second-round knockout of longtime titleholder Takashi Uchiyama with a victory in their rematch on Dec. 31. Another junior lightweight titleholder Vasyl Lomachenko will have put forth a good year if he beats Nicholas Walters in November, along with his title win against Roman Martinez in June.

The best two-fight series in 2016 may belong to Carl Frampton, who beat one of the top 122-pounders in the world, Scott Quigg, before moving right up to 126 to win a battle with a titleholder there, Leo Santa Cruz. It’s the kind of thing we see too few fighters do these days. Frampton didn’t waste his time with tune-ups or easy paydays. He’ll also be kicking off 2017 with a rematch against Santa Cruz.

There won’t be a 122-pounder in consideration. The same can be said for 118, though Shinsuke Yamanaka did reaffirm his grip on the division when he stopped Anselmo Moreno in their September rematch. At 115, Roman Gonzalez deserves considerable credit for his competitive decision victory over one of the two best in the division, Carlos Cuadras. Gonzalez’s other appearance this year was a decision over the twice-beaten McWilliams Arroyo at 112.

Johnriel Casimero deserves a special thank you from boxing fans for ending the reign of dreadful flyweight titleholder Amnat Ruenroeng. He also stopped Charlie Edwards in September. It won’t be enough.

No one at 108 will make the list. The same can be said of 105. Byron Rojas would’ve merited consideration had he followed his surprising win over Hekkie Budler with a victory over Knockout CP Freshmart. Instead, Freshmart won a tough-to-watch decision over Rojas in June. Earlier in the year, he picked up a rematch win over Carlos Buitrago.

That was a long way of getting to a short list: the winner of Denis Lebedev-Murat Gassiev, the winner of Sergey Kovalev-Andre Ward, the winner of Jessie Vargas-Manny Pacquiao, Terence Crawford (so long as he doesn’t lose on Dec. 10), Jezreel Corrales (if he wins again on Dec. 31), Carl Frampton and Roman Gonzalez.

The winner of Kovalev-Ward will likely take top honors. The others truly would be honorable mentions.

“Fighting Words” appears every Monday on BoxingScene.com. Pick up a copy of David’s book, “Fighting Words: The Heart and Heartbreak of Boxing,” at http://bit.ly/fightingwordsamazon or internationally at http://bit.ly/fightingwordsworldwide. Send questions/comments via email at fightingwords1@gmail.com