Johnson had lost a war to Javier Juaregui three fights prior and, at age 35, he didn’t have the legs and athleticism that were there when he stopped an undefeated Sharmba Mitchell in 1994.  All he had was pride and heart.  That wasn’t enough against the younger Chavez.

Chavez didn’t, never did have, single shot power.  He won battles through attrition, through volume of punches thrown, through staying on top of his man and dishing as much punishment as possible.  Without legs, Johnson was there to absorb that punishment without suffering that single shot that could have ended it before it was too late.

That scenario sounds too much like Morales-Diaz for comfort.   

Diaz is an unheralded talent, but he’s not without talent.  He defeated future welterweight king Zab Judah to advance to the Olympics and his only loss is to currently streaking junior welterweight Kendall Holt.  The calendar may say he is the older man, but he is undoubtedly also fresher.  He hasn’t burned his legend into the mind of boxing lovers with the wars Morales has left in his wake; no epics with Marco Antonio Barrera, Manny Pacquiao or Daniel Zaragoza.

That’s to Diaz’s benefit this Saturday night.

All the miles, the tread, on Morales after those wars has left him a shell of what he was on his best day.  Of his last 25 rounds in the ring against Diaz’s Olympic teammate Zahir Raheem and twice against Pacquiao, Morales has won, maybe, three rounds and all of those were in the first half of the second bout with Pacquiao.  This isn’t a fighter who is just losing fights; he’s losing almost every second of those fights.

So what does one suppose will happen against Diaz?  He’s a bigger, stronger man than Raheem or Pacquiao but one who has to win without the slickness of the former or lightning of the latter.  Diaz doesn’t, never has had, single shot power.  He wins battles through attrition, through volume of punches thrown, through staying on top of his man and dishing as much punishment as possible.  We all know that Morales, as a man, has always been willing to suffer great punishment.  That’s what should worry anyone who cares.   

And yes, I said in the opening paragraph that Diaz is a contender.  I realize that the world is reading and seeing some great promotional advertising about the ‘War for 4,’ an insinuation that Morales has an opportunity to become the ‘first Mexican to win four world titles.’  Let’s be clear from the outset.  The only World lightweight champion is Joel Casamayor. 

Even if Casamayor’s recent inactivity (that really isn’t in the era of the two-fight-a-year boxing star paradigm) is a quarrelsome point, David still isn’t the best Diaz in line.  That would be Juan (32-0, 16 KO, WBA/WBO titlist), the 23-year old Houston phenom.  Arguments to the contrary are just that; contrarian.

So what does this all add up to?  A vainglorious quest for an artificial title  and accompanying statistic in a fight where the styles could do Morales, and boxing, great harm at a time when the sport has put together a schedule that should be nothing but beneficial. 

Sure, there is a chance that Morales can recapture some of what has made him one of the most special fighters of his time.  Prior to his stunning eleventh-round KO of Mike Tyson in 1996, scribes abounded to make similar warnings to the one I make here for Evander Holyfield.  Holyfield proved the world (minus Ron Borges) wrong and Morales might prove skeptics wrong here.

I have to ask if it’s really worth it to find out.  If the dollars that can be bled from Morales by putting him in this fight, by giving him a top ten 135 lb. WBC rating without a win in two years and without any wins of note at lightweight are truly worth the risk.  Because that’s all this fight is: risk. 

I’m not saying that Morales shouldn’t be allowed to fight.  He’s a grown man making his own choices and I love John Wayne and Ayn Rand too much to attempt to make that choice for him.  That doesn’t mean I, or anyone, have to pretend this is just another chapter in “Can the old guy do it?” 

This is potentially much worse than that and even a Morales win won’t change what it looked like going in.  After all, a win here could tempt Morales to tempt fate some more on those old legs and the scenario described here is five-fold against a stud like Juan Diaz.

So for those who pay-per-view to watch, whose curiosity and the lure of a solid undercard (featuring yet another scrap of the season potential contest between 108 lb. bangers Ulises Solis and Rodel Mayol) prove a drain on the wallet, cross your fingers and hope for the best or at least the least of beatings.

Rematch:  Luckily, there is a superior free option this weekend to swallow attention away from Diaz-Morales. 

At 32 years of age, Mexico City’s Rafael Marquez (37-3, 33 KO, WBC belt) is the World champion at 122 lbs.; is rated as one of the best in the world at any weight; and is one half of one of boxing’s great all-time family acts with older brother and 130 lb. beltholder Juan Manuel.  These are, these should be anyways, the salad days of Marquez’ career.  The calendar instead says there is a damn good chance that we’re close to the final bell.

That doesn’t mean the calendar has rolled just yet.

The title Marquez holds today is one of boxing’s more recent incarnations.  Astute historians will note the brief existence of the division under the gnarled hands of Jack Wolfe and Carl Duane from 1922-23, but the junior featherweight class we know today began with the 1976 coronation of Rigoberto Riasco.  It began to matter when that title weaved its way into the destructive path of Puerto Rican legend Wilfredo Gomez from 1977-81.

Gomez is the standard still.  Gomez, at 122 lbs., is likely the standard always.  His bouts with Mexican warriors Carlos Zarate and Lupe Pintor are the rocks, the foundation of a tradition that has garnered two of the last six Fight of the Year nods.  If voting closed today, there are many who would select the March battle between Marquez and Las Vegas based former champion Israel Vasquez (41-4, 30 KO, #2) into the same company as the first Erik Morales-Marco Antonio Barrera epic in 2000 and last year’s Somsak Sithchatchawal-Mahyar Monshipour. 

I still don’t know if it was quite that good, but this weekend from the Dodge Arena in Hidalgo, Texas, Marquez and Vasquez have a chance to do something neither of those pairings did: top themselves in the same calendar year.  If they do, if this time we get the conclusive finish that was denied by a shattered Vasquez nose and a corner stoppage the first time around, than what a night it shall be, a reminder why the good still and always outweighs the bad in boxing.

And it’s not just the main event.  Lurking on the undercard is the man most likely and logical to face Sunday morning’s champion next.  That man, Celestino Caballero (26-2, 18 KO, #1, WBA belt) of Panama has a rugged veteran (and aren’t they all) in front of him in Mexico’s Jorge Lacierva (32-6-6, 22 KO, unrated) but that’s not the real fight.

No, the real fight for Caballero at age 31 is to create a mandate.  Had the world seen his Tommy Hearns-Pipino Cuevas like destruction of Sithchatchwal for a belt last year, he might already have it.  Instead, he has a man with the experience to push him but the whiskers of a man stopped just two years ago by Cruz Carbajal.  With four more months of boxing scheduled at Showtime, Caballero versus the winner of Marquez-Vasquez II (probably Marquez and earlier than last time) could be the best Christmas present left to give a boxing landscape that is awe-inspiring in its depth (see one Jake Donovan’s Boxing Scene contribution from this week if you don’t believe me).

Cliff’s Notes…

Berto Questions:  My reference last week to welterweight Andre Berto (19-0, 16 KO) of Winter Haven, Florida as a ‘super prospect’ provoked an email from a highly credible little birdie.  Cryptically, it stated “wait until he gets hit on the chin.”  I wrote a few months ago that Berto’s lack of head movement (he has about none) was a concern.  In round six on ESPN2 last Friday, all bad signs reached intersection and down Berto went.  Granted, Mexico’s Cosme Rivera (30-11-2, 21 KO) is a gritty veteran, but he’s not supposed to beat a top guy and had he had another thirty seconds he just might have beaten Berto.  Berto’s legs were shaky as he walked to the corner and his corners ‘need’ for a new glove after the round says to me his prospects for the future are certainly shaky going forward.  That was a smart lil’ birdie…

D’OH:  The Simpsons Movie was all that and a Lindsay Lohan Saturday night…

All Wrong:  I missed the (Vernon) Forrest for the trees last week.  Michael Katz wrote in his column here at Boxing Scene that it was a ‘writers’ fight.  It turned out to be a fighter’s fight.  While it wasn’t particularly close, Forrest (39-2, 28 KO, #6 at 154 lbs.) posted a public reminder that he still matters, at age 36 and after multiple injuries.  Carlos Baldomir (43-11-6, 13 KO, #5 at 147) proved again that his chin is a steel post.  Baldomir claimed his career had ended with the decision loss, Forrest claimed he was heading for a vacation, and I’m claiming a mea culpa.  This battle of former World welterweight champions was derided by many and me going in.  I was glad to be so wrong…

Final Flurries:  Getting back to calendar depth, the September tilt between Junior Witter (35-1-2, 20 KO, #1, WBC belt) and Vivian Harris (28-2-1, 20 KO, #2) at 140 lbs. has been all but overlooked.  That’s not fair.  Outside of either facing World champion Ricky Hatton, it’s the best match in the world at 140…Has any division not had its best, or near best, possible match this year?  Think about that. 

2007 might go down as one of the greatest years in boxing history if it already isn’t…Speaking of Hatton (43-0, 31 KO), he won’t be available for Witter or Harris because he likely has a date with World welterweight champion Floyd Mayweather (38-0, 24 KO) in December.  It’s the first time the reigning lineal champs at 140 and 147 have faced off since Oscar de la Hoya and Pernell Whitaker in 1997.  Both men are undefeated, on the pound for pound lists, and mesh style wise.  Anyone who thinks they know what will happen in this fight is likely to be surprised.  I love this fight…Japanese flyweights: Anytime K9…Russian heavyweight Alexander Povetkin’s people think he’s ready for Chris Byrd?  That’s a Jim Jeffries sort of early career leap and more power to him if he pulls it off.

Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel and the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com