By Cliff Rold

A two-division reigning titlist versus a recently unified beltholder; Philippines vs. Mexico; the only thing missing is size.

If the best fight of the weekend on paper being contested even just as high as 122 lbs., more of the boxing world would be chomping at the bit. As is, those who know what they’re looking at know what they might be getting. Saturday (BeIn Sports Espanol, 12 AM EST/9 PM PST, tape delay), the leading Jr. Flyweight in the world defends against a younger man who, while having come up in weight from his title wins, is also the bigger man.

Can an aging champion who has yet to show much sign of his age hold off the all out aggression of his hungry challenger?

Let’s go the report card.

The Ledgers

Donnie Nietes
Age: 33
Titles: WBO Light Flyweight (2011-Present, 6 Defenses); Ring Magazine Jr. Flyweight (2014-Present, 2 Defenses)
Previous Titles: WBO Minimumweight (2007-11, 4 Defenses)
Height: 5’3  

Weight: 108 lbs.
Hails from: Bacolod City, Negros Occidental, Philippines


Record: 35-1-4,
Rankings: #1 (BoxingScene, ESPN, TBRB), #2 (BoxRec)
Record in Major Title Fights: 11-0-1, 5 KO

Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 4 (Pornsawan Porpramook UD12; Mario Rodriguez UD12; Ramon Garcia UD12; Moises Fuentes D12, KO9)

Vs.

Francisco Rodriguez Jr.  
Age: 22
Title: None
Previous Titles: WBO Minimumweight (2014, 1 Defense); IBF Minimumweight (2014)
Height: 5’4 
Weight: 108 lbs.
Hails from: Monterrey, Nuevo León, Mexico
Record: 17-2-1, 11 KO, 1 KOBY

Rankings: #4 (Boxrec), #10 (Ring)
Record in Major Title Fights: 2-0, 1 KO

Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 3 (Roman Gonzalez TKO by 7; Merlito Sabillo TKO10; Katsunari Takayama UD12)

Grades
Pre-Fight: Speed – Nietes B; Rodriguez B
Pre-Fight: Power – Nietes B; Rodriguez B
Pre-Fight: Defense – Nietes B+; Rodriguez C
Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Nietes A; Rodriguez B+

In terms of speed and power, both men appear about equally matched. Where there becomes an inequality is in how they deliver those attributes. Rodriguez is often aggressive, staying on top of foes and pressing with volume and hard body shots. His attack can overwhelm defenses, as it did Sabillo and with an early knockdown of Takayama in the 2014 BoxingScene and ESPN Fight of the Year.

It also leaves Rodriguez open to plenty of leather. His aggression sometimes leaves him off balance and out of position. Against a fighter with the patience and tactical strengths of Nietes, that could spell trouble.

Rarely seen in the US, Nietes is one of the more underrated fighters on these shores to those who know him at all. A consistent figure in the title scene of the lower classes for going on a decade, Nietes is one of those fighters who succeeds by getting the little things right. He operates well off the jab, puts together smart combinations, and is typically in position to counter on the inside.

Nietes was never better than in his rematch victory over Fuentes last year, winning the Ring if not quite the outright lineal crown. In an excellent fight, his knockout in the ninth round was as much about accumulating the knowledge of their two fights together as it was the finishing blows. He timed Fuentes perfectly and, when he had his man hurt, finished him.

In fact, Nietes has shown a bit of a recent power surge. Each of his last five wins has come inside the route. Part of that may be due to varied opponents, but much has to do with the way he’s sitting down harder on shots. Combine that with his accuracy and Nietes has become more formidable with time.

He’ll still get touched here. Rodriguez showed against Roman Gonzalez that he can take a whale of a shot and he’s not going to fade from the action. Nietes is good defensively, and moves his head well, but he still catches plenty.

In terms of intangibles, Nietes has been around longer and had more chances to show his best stuff against solid opposition. Rodriguez has a great 2014, and was still learning his way through against Gonzalez, but it’s hard to say where he is just yet. He showed some better boxing in his last outing, a second bout with Jamar Fajardo, and at 21 is still learning. If his learning curve and age combine in the right way this weekend, a title change could be in order.

The Pick

It’s hard to imagine either man being stopped unless one simply takes too much as the fight goes on. This looks like a distance fight, and a potentially thrilling one. Rodriguez is going to press and he’s going to force Nietes to fire back. There won’t be much way around it. At home, and with a more refined skill set, the veteran will increasingly win exchanges by getting to the target first and hitting Rodriguez with counters he doesn’t see coming. The pick is Nietes by decision in a fight that looks as good in the ring as on paper.

Report Card and Staff Picks 2015: 55-13

Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene, a founding member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com