By Cliff Rold

There will be, have been, ample arguments about whether this fight is ‘necessary.’  What we do know is the challenger, this time around anyways, was savvy enough to write a rematch clause into the contract for bout number one.

So here we are.

We also know the challenger is 4-0 in rematches, having defeated Eric Harding, Roy Jones (twice), and Glen Johnson after suffering initial defeats.  Can he do it again with one of the best young fighters in the world one up on him?  Necessary or not, the fight has at least that compelling storyline going for it.

Let’s go to the report card. 

The Ledgers

Chad Dawson
Age: 26
Title: IBF Light Heavyweight
Height: 6’3
Average Weight - Five Most Recent Fights: 174.05 lbs.
Hails from: New Haven, Connecticut
Record: 27-0, 17 KO
Record in Title Fights: 5-0, 2 KO
Major Belts Held: WBC Light Heavyweight 2007-08, 3 Defenses
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 4 (Carl Daniels, Tomasz Adamek, Glen Johnson, Antonio Tarver)

Vs.

Antonio Tarver
Age: 40
Title: None
Height: 6’2
Average Weight - Five Most Recent Fights: 174.15 lbs.
Hails from: Tampa, Florida
Record: 27-5, 19 KO
Record in Title Fights: 5-4, 1 KO
Major Belts Held: WBC/IBF Light Heavyweight 2003; Ring/WBC/WBA Light Heavyweight 2004; Ring Light Heavyweight 2005-06, 1 Defense; IBF Light Heavyweight 2008
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 5 (Reggie Johnson, Montell Griffin, Roy Jones Jr., Glen Johnson, Clinton Woods)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced in Defeat or Draw: 4 (Roy Jones Jr., Glen Johnson, Bernard Hopkins, Chad Dawson)

Pre-Fight Grades
Speed - Dawson A; Tarver B
Power – Dawson B; Tarver B
Defense – Dawson B+; Tarver B
Intangibles – Dawson A; Tarver B+

It is often the setbacks, the adversity, which make good fighters better.  Such may be the case for Dawson.  Knockdowns suffered in winning efforts against a still tough Harding and the future World Cruiserweight champion Adamek showed Dawson could focus.  Surviving a war with Johnson in 2008 showed he could persevere and, more importantly, fire back when in deep trouble.

How much those troubles assisted in the outcome against Tarver last October is hard to say.  What is not hard to say is that, for the first time, a more experienced veteran didn’t find a hole to exploit as Dawson won nine rounds on two cards and ten on another.  As to the performances in the first bout, the post-fight report card to Dawson-Tarver I noted:

Unlike Klitschko, Dawson acted his age by showing off what should usually be true in a Boxing match.  All things being equal, a man with a thirteen-year age advantage whose going to be worth following wins with that advantage.  The new IBF Light Heavyweight titlist Dawson (27-0, 17 KO) did just that Saturday, winning at least nine rounds against 39-year old Antonio Tarver (27-5, 19 KO). 

Tarver showed some good stuff even in losing.  He blocked well with his gloves and arms, was effective with the jab, and even stunned Dawson with some well-timed uppercuts.  His problem was two-fold: as the fight wore on, his punches lost snap and he didn’t have the youth to keep up with Dawson’s output.  There are a lot of good fighters at 175 lbs. Tarver can still defeat; none of them are named Chad Dawson.
In his previous outing, Dawson barely survived another old man of the game in Glen Johnson and he must have learned a ton in that narrow win.  He showed the same exceptional hand speed this time out but, unlike in the Johnson fight, didn’t allow himself to be punished when his foe opened up.  He kept his head, played defense, and then fired.  The geography of the fight was also his as he circled and determined when to fight on the ropes and when he would be at ring center.  It was an example of a very good fighter coming into his own, the birth of prime.

Before exploring Dawson further, let a moment be reserved for Tarver.  While never every fans favorite, he has been the sort of fighter fans claim to want to see more of.  From 1999, in his first bout with Eric Harding, through the loss to Dawson, Tarver has fought real top ten competition consistently for almost a decade.  Only 2007 saw a serious dip in quality, a reset on the road to his 2008 double of Clinton Woods and Dawson.  He didn’t win them all, but he fought the sort of schedule fans should demand from a world class fighter in the 2-3 fights a year era we reside in.  And even in defeat this weekend, he never gave up and stayed in the fight all the way.  No one has to like him, but everyone should respect what he’s gotten done by now.

As neither man has been in the ring again since their last bout, a delay of a couple months built into the rematch due to a hand injury for Dawson, little can be assessed as changed. 

The x-factors in the rematch are two.

First, will Dawson be at full strength.  It’s probably safe to assume that a willingness to step in with a veteran of Tarver’s caliber, even aged 40, lends itself to a Dawson at near full strength.  The other x-factor than becomes complacency.

The lopsided scores of Dawson-Tarver I didn’t mean there weren’t spots of competitiveness.  Tarver possesses one-punch power but didn’t land anything big and couldn’t produce the volume he once could to outbox well defended or strong chinned foes.  Therefore, Tarver can hope Dawson continues to find himself strong round after round on the cards and grows complacent.  Twenty four rounds with Tarver is a long time to go without getting caught.  Dawson will have to be fully on his game to make it that full distance.

There is a reason Tarver has never lost a rematch.  He’s been a gamer.  He has made a career of finding big punches or sound strategies with his back to the wall.  If Dawson plays too losses, too confident, Tarver has to be considered still dangerous.

The Pick

The bet here is Dawson will handle his biggest spot of vulnerability just fine.  Undefeated in rematches or not, Tarver has seen better days.  It would be foolish to count him out entirely, but in his own way Dawson has his back to the wall as well.  This is his first major HBO appearance (9:30 PM EST/6:30 PM PST) after working his way onto a number of pound-for-pound lists.  This is a coming out party in terms of potential audience reach, especially considering the Pacquiao-Hatton replay which will accompany this main event.

The first fight found an ascendant star versus one on the decline and it’s rare a rematch gets better for a defeated and aging fighter.  Look for Dawson to increase his dominance the second time around, either winning a wide decision or forcing a corner stoppage late in the fight.

Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel and the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com