By Cliff Rold
He put the catchweight tease of a return to Jr. welterweight behind him in his last fight. Now, former 140 lb. king Danny Garcia will attempt to add a belt at 147 lbs. Can he be the man to fill the void left behind by retired welterweight king Floyd Mayweather?
A former Mayweather challenger is going to begin asking that question. He’ll be attempting to answer some others as well. Robert Guerrero had a solid run, rising from 126 lbs. to become a legitimate contender at welterweight. Since the loss to Mayweather, he’s appeared less than that with three rough nights in a row. Does Guerrero have enough left in the tank to score the upset?
It’s the first prime time PBC show of the year and the beginning of what could be an interesting year at welterweight. Already we have Manny Pacquiao-Timothy Bradley III and Keith Thurman-Shawn Porter looming. Kell Brook would love a piece of Amir Khan. Errol Spence is coming of age.
And somewhere along the way, the winner of Garcia-Guerrero is going to reap the rewards.
Let’s go the report card.
The Ledgers
Danny Garcia
Age: 27
Title: None
Previous Titles: WBC super lightweight (2012-15, 5 Defenses); WBA “Super” super lightweight (2012-15, 4 Defenses); Lineal/TBRB/Ring World Jr. welterweight (2013-15, 1 Defense)
Height: 5’8 ½
Weight: 146 ¾ lbs.
?Hails from: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Record: 31-0, 18 KO
Rankings: #7 (BoxingScene, ESPN, BoxRec), #8 (TBRB, Ring)
Record in Major Title Fights: 6-0, 2 KO
Current/Former World Champions Faced: 7 (Nate Campbell UD10; Kendall Holt SD12; Erik Morales UD12, KO4; Amir Khan TKO4; Zab Judah UD12; Lamont Peterson MD12; Paul Malignaggi TKO9)
Vs.
Robert Guerrero
Age: 32
?Title: None
Previous Titles: IBF featherweight (2006; 07-08, 2 Defenses); IBF super featherweight (2009)
?Height: 5’8
Weight: 146 ¾ lbs.
?Hails from: Gilroy, California
Record: 33-3-1, 18 KO
Rankings: #8 (BoxingScene), #9 (TBRB)
Record in Major Title Fights: 5-2, 4 KO, 1 No Decision (8-2, 4 KO, 1 No Decision including interim title fights)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 10 (Juan Polo Perez TKO2; Enrique Sanchez TKO8; Gamaliel Diaz L12, KO6; Eric Aiken RTD8; Orlando Salido ND; Malcolm Klassen UD12; Joel Casamayor UD10; Andre Berto UD12; Floyd Mayweather L12; Keith Thurman L12)
Grades
Pre-Fight: Speed – Garcia B; Guerrero B
Pre-Fight: Power – Garcia B+; Guerrero B
Pre-Fight: Defense – Garcia B; Guerrero B-
Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Garcia B+; Guerrero B
Is Guerrero losing his legs? That’s the biggest question looming over him coming into this fight. The Gilroy native had always shown a pretty good chin but he’s been dropped in consecutive fights. Hitting the deck against a guy with Thurman’s power was no big deal. The left hook that set up a knockdown against Aron Martinez might have been a bad sign.
Martinez isn’t a big puncher. Garcia is a big left hooker. For those who think this is the sort of thanks for coming fight many aging fighters are sacrificed to, those two components are a big reason why.
If Garcia can land the sort of shot Martinez did, they’ll be right. However, styles count and Garcia doesn’t fight like Martinez. Martinez got in Guerrero’s chest and stayed there. Garcia is more comfortable at range, working off the jab. He’s not a guy who crowds or maintains a steady stream of pressure.
Guerrero does like to, and is comfortable, pressing. Much will come down to whether he can establish a jab to get there. Guerrero has a slight edge in reach and comes from the southpaw side, both of which give him a chance to do so. If he gets inside, Guerrero has a varied body and head attack mixed in with an assortment of schooled fouls.
Prior to his match with Mayweather, Guerrero’s willingness to get dirty was mentioned. Mayweather never let it be an issue. Garcia is going to have to work harder to prevent it. We saw in his struggles with Mauricio Herrera and Lamont Peterson what can happen if a fighter can stay close to Garcia for extended periods of time.
Peterson was so successful when he pressed it made it all the more head scratching when he went back to boxing. When Peterson decided to take the fight to Garcia, he beat him up. Does Guerrero have the same sort of physical strength Peterson is apt to show as fights go deep? The former featherweight is a mixed bag in that regard at welterweight.
In terms of intangibles, both men have pluses and minuses. Garcia is one of those guys who seems to flourish as an underdog. While he’s had some luck, to date he has remained a winner. He came up huge against Khan and Matthysse. Against men he’s favored to beat, Garcia often fights to the level of his opponent. It was that way against Peterson, Morales (the first time), Holt, Herrera, and Zab Judah made a strong rally after falling behind early. Does Garcia perceive Guerrero as a real threat? If not, does he let himself get sucked into a brawl?
For Guerrero, we will find out at some point if those legs really are getting old. He was never really in the fights with Mayweather or Thurman and hasn’t really beaten a serious top class welterweight since arriving in the division. Worse, in those fights he rarely let it all hang out the way he did against foes like Berto and Yoshihiro Kamegai. Garcia hasn’t shown himself a top welterweight yet but he started higher on the scale and has spent more of his career fighting bigger men. If Guerrero falls behind, does he step on the gas or play to last?
The Picks
As noted in a piece earlier this week, neither of these fighters enters this fight on fire. Guerrero could easily be 1-3 in his last four starts. Garcia could just as easily be 2-2. Guerrero needs to win to stay alive as more than a gatekeeper. Garcia needs to make a statement against a foe he’s supposed to beat.
The thinking here is that this will be a better fight in the ring than it looks like on paper. Guerrero has to respect the left hook but since 2012 only the woefully overmatched Rod Salka was run over by Garcia. He’s a good puncher but he’s no knockout machine. If Guerrero can take some incoming and make it a trench war, he’ll be in the fight for a long time and it could make for good TV.
It won’t be enough to win. Garcia is good enough at using his legs to keep away from Guerrero and he can bank rounds that way. We could see some real drama down the stretch with Guerrero getting closer as those rounds tick by, but that will mean more openings for Garcia. In the end Garcia should win a decision or clip Guerrero for a late finish.
Report Card and Staff Picks 2016: 1-1
Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene, a founding member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com
