In this week’s mailbag, Stephen “Breadman” Edwards answers the inevitable questions about Saul "Canelo" Alvarez-Terence Crawford, where Crawford stands in history, who of the modern era's younger fighters can rival him there, and also how he compares to Oleksandr Usyk and Naoya Inoue
Well, you nailed another fight spot on.
I know you were confident of your pick but that doesn’t diminish how good of a call that was. I picked Alvarez to win because I had my doubts Crawford could be the same at the higher weight. You also picked the underdog, which looses around 80 per cent of the time. So, stand up Crawford and stand up Bread.
After watching the fight closely and seeing how big and fluid “Bud” looked I think he would be a problem for anyone at 168. I know Benavidez is a bad match-up for him due to size, power, and volume punching. But I think Bud would hold his own, even in that fight. Not sure he would win, but he would be competitive for sure. I saw Plant give David fits for the first four-to-five rounds, outmanoeuvring and out-boxing David. I even had him winning early. I only bring up Benavidez because Turki Alalshikh mentioned his name. Does this win over Canelo by Terence put him in the top 10 all time?
Take care
Bread’s response: Thank you. I’m not sure where Bud is as an all-time great. But I do firmly believe he’s an all-time great. I can tell you the tier I think he’s in. Muhammad Ali and Sugar Ray Robinson are in a special room for too many reasons to name. They sit at the forefront of their room at their own table. But fighters like Henry Armstrong, Ezzard Charles, Sugar Ray Leonard, Joe Louis and Roberto Duran are also in that room, just not at their table. I left out a few but I’m trying to illustrate to you where I’m going. Then you have about two more rooms outside of the platinum room. You have a room where fighters like Oscar De La Hoya, Shane Mosley and Canelo Alvarez sit. Then you have the room where fighters like Julio Cesar Chavez, Carlos Monzon and Marvin Hagler are. The room where Chavez, Monzon and Hagler are is a higher-tier room than where De La Hoya, Mosley and Alvarez are. For example, I feel like Crawford is above great fighters like Mosley. Mosley was an awesome fighter, but Bud operates on a different level. So the question is, does he go in the room where Chavez and Hagler are, or does he sit in the room where Ali and Robinson are? I don’t know yet. I want to be fair in my assessment. What I will say is Crawford is in my opinion the number-one pound-for-pound fighter in the world. And he’s among the best of my lifetime. I don’t have an exact place for him yet because it’s irresponsible to rush and make that determination this soon after his performance. These things take time.
I think “Bud” Crawford would be competitive with anyone he steps in the ring with from 168lbs and below. But David Benavidez is a tall a glass of water. I think that’s a very, very dangerous and difficult fight for Bud. And more importantly, I think Bud knows this. He’s very intelligent and I don’t think he’s going to be pressured into fighting someone that much bigger than him, along with having elite talent. There is a reason Canelo didn’t fight Benavidez… If Crawford were to beat Benavidez, my goodness – I wouldn’t even know how to wrap my head around that. I can’t quantify that right now because that may mean he’s the best fighter in the history of planet earth. Let’s just digest the Canelo win.
Bread, your pick of Terence Crawford was the most impressive big fight pick I have seen in a very long time – if not ever. You picked him early and despite the negative feedback you never wavered. What’s more impressive, you called the fight almost exactly how it went. I’m never doubting you again – I took Canelo big and my pockets are hurting.
I have a few questions for you. I heard you say several times that you told PBC that Julian Williams, Stephen Fulton, Kyrone Davis and Jaron Ennis would all be world champions long before they became world champions or anyone else believed they could be. And the only one who didn’t become a world champion is Kyrone Davis, and that’s because PBC tries to get him beat each time he fights. If he had Joey Spencer’s matchmaking he would be a world champion. My question is, why don’t you work in the front office of PBC or another big company as a talent scout? Your eyes are uncanny. I see so many companies push the wrong fighters because of so many other things, except who’s the best. When you pick a fighter, you really pick a fighter. My next question is who do you see that will be the next generation’s Bud Crawford? And last, where do you rank Bud all time after this big win?
Bread’s response: Thank you. Yes, I did call J-Rock, Scooter and Boots being world champions before they were champions. And yes, Kyrone does get matched tough, but that’s a story for another day. I don’t work in a front office because no one has offered me a job in a front office.
Who do I see as the next generation’s Bud Crawford? I see Boots Ennis being that if he can get the fights and platform. Ennis has the talent; I can assess his talent. But I can’t control how the business side works. That’s an uncontrollable variable for me. We just have to wait and see. Let’s remember Bud didn’t get his two superfights until he had over 40 fights and was over 35 years old.
Hey Bread,
Sharp call again – you saw it early. Crawford’s performance was brilliant; historic. My angle is nuanced, though. You’ve shown before how two truths can co-exist. Floyd is an all-time great, true, but also had the best matchmaking ever. Canelo’s résumé is elite, true, but every big win carries an asterisk. Crawford is truly great, true, but his resume doesn’t match his greatness. As for the narrative that Crawford’s win was decisive – with an insane round nine and great finish he separated himself, that’s true. But the “he toyed with Canelo” line is wrong. The first seven were tight; Compubox had it closer than the commentary. The internet is wild. More respect should go to Canelo’s effort. He fought ‘till the end and was outclassed in shot bursts.
How far from his peak was Canelo? He’s greatly slipped since 2021, yet looked sharp that night. I expected a lesser version. How close is Crawford to his own peak? Like Usyk or Bivol, I see no slippage. Peak Crawford versus peak Canelo: who wins? How would Benavidez fare versus this version of Canelo? Boots versus this Crawford? The two toughest fights for Bud from 147 to 168? Bud at 168 versus Benavidez at 168? Madrimov: underrated, elite, or just an awkward style? Of Shakur, Boots, Itauma, Bam, Benavidez or others, who has real GOAT potential? How far can Ortiz go with health issues, style, and his defense? Is he “the latino guy” or is Ramos Jnr or Teofimo that guy instead?
Congratulations again on the spot-on call,
Diego, France
Bread’s response: Let me answer in order… I think the fight was competitive, but a clear win for Bud. I wasn’t scoring it, but I knew who had won. I can live with 115-113, but 116-112 seems more along the lines of what happened.
Canelo fought his ass off. He did his best. He just has certain limitations. He’s not a front runner but he doesn’t close as strong as Bud. So the last rounds were crucial, and that’s where Bud separated himself.
I’m not suggesting CompuBox was wrong. I didn’t recount the punches. But CompuBox wouldn’t be my first reference point in determining how a fight went. First off, the overall punch stats can be misleading because one of the fighters could have had a lopsided round that makes the overall punch stats look different from what actually happened. So round-by-round punch stats are a better way of determining the winner than the overall punch stats.
Also, you have to realize that human beings control punch stats. No human is perfect. I could be wrong but I didn't see a fight where Canelo outlanded Crawford and even if he did, Crawford still won more rounds even if he didn’t outland Canelo overall.
Canelo was sharp and in shape. I think his peak fight was the GGG rematch. And his peak run was from his GGG fights to his fight with in 2021. After that, I saw some decline. Not to a point where I thought he was shot, but just a little off his peak. You also could tell that by his refusal to fight Benavidez.
Crawford may not be at his physical peak. But his mind and his skill set are operating at such a level that if there is physical slippage it doesn’t affect his performances. I think Bud is still in his prime. Roberto Duran is one of the best fighters I have ever seen, but he wasn’t as consistent as Bud in his late 30s. However, this is the reason I don’t like to compare eras. Duran had far more fights that Bud has had, and he didn’t have the access to modern methods of recovery.
I think Bud may have always edged Canelo, but the GGG version of Canelo would’ve been a tougher fight. I always favored Benavidez to beat Canelo.
I don’t think Bud and Boots will ever fight so I won’t go too deeply into it. But Boots is a different set of problems for Bud. Boots is not 5’7 with short arms. He’s 5’10 with arms like Bud’s. He’s 28. He’s rangy, fast, reactive and busy, and he hits hard. It’s a totally different fight. And before anyone gets offended I’m not saying Boots has done more than Canelo. I’m saying the styles and traits are different in a head-to-head match-up.
I think Boots and Sheeraz would be Bud’s toughest fights from 147-168.
Bud has a shot to beat Benavidez, but I don’t know if I would pick him. Let me think on it.
Madrimov has a different style. He didn’t lead and he feinted with his feet. Bud is a natural counter puncher. It was just one of those things. People put too much into that fight. Madrimov fights nothing like Canelo.
Itauma, Bam, Boots, Benavidez and Shakur all have great potential. But we have to see their careers play out. It’s way too early for greatest-of-all-time talk with them.
I don’t know how far Vergil Ortiz can go. But I suspect his style is not one of longevity. Vergil seems very tightly wound, and styles like that don’t age well. Let’s see what happens because, despite that, I think Vergil is the real deal. I love watching him fight. I just don’t know if he’s a guy that will be good in his late 30s.
Breadman,
You called the TBC win from a mile away, and I think you had the courage to say it early and others then jumped on the wagon. Credit to you and your knowledge of the sweet science. That being said, as a former Canelo hater I have only good things to say about him right now. What class and maturity he has demonstrated in defeat – he is a great ambassador for the sport and a role model for young people to emulate. What fight would you pick next for him? If I was his manager, I would say take Benavidez at 175. A victory there would take his legacy next level; I think he can win.
Thanks for the knowledge,
Phil DuPont, WA
Bread’s response: I love that Canelo takes tough style match-ups. Let’s remember, Canelo has fought Austin Trout, Floyd Mayweather, Erislandy Lara, GGG, Billy Joe Saunders, Caleb Plant, Dmitry Bivol, Jermell Charlo and Terence Crawford. And let’s not forget he was signed to fight Paul Williams. Canelo does not steer clear of black fighters. He doesn’t steer clear of fighters with Olympic pedigree. He doesn’t steer clear of faster, taller fighters. He does not steer clear of punchers. Sure, he’s had some favorable matchmaking. Sure, he avoided Benavidez. But Canelo is a gun. I respect him. And I respect his effort versus Crawford. He never stopped trying.
If I were Canelo I wouldn’t fight Benavidez at 175lbs. That’s too much, and Benavidez would be seething in anger. Benavidez knows he was denied superstardom by not getting the Canelo fight. I think he would hurt Canelo at this moment. I don’t know where Canelo goes from here, to be honest. It may be over for him. Another training camp won’t be easy on him, mentally or physically.
As-salaam alaykum, Breadman,
Bud is the greatest fighter of this generation and the best fighter since at least Roy Jones Jnr. He’s an all-time, pound-for-pound great and in my top 10 of all time. Put him on your Mount Rushmore of fighters in your lifetime or please tell me why you won’t yet.
Thank you for all you do for this sport.
Ma’a salama, John
Bread’s response: Respectfully, I don’t let anyone rush me to an opinion or assessment. I think Bud is special but I’m in no rush to put him in my top 10 ever. I haven’t given it much thought and I just want to appreciate what he did on Saturday night. I take these things seriously and I don’t want to say something out of being in the moment and then be wrong. So let’s all just be patient.
Sup Breadman,
You’re probably tired of hearing about Canelo-Crawford, but kudos to you – you was right all along. Do you think Crawford, at this point in his career, can run the table at 168? How do you think he fares against Benavidez if he can still make 168? Crawford is a dog; he looked like he filled out good at 168; I like his chances. Is it fair to attribute Canelo’s career losses to the lack of an amateur career? I think his lack of a jab, inability to punch on the move, slow feet and telegraphing punches all worked against him in his three losses – all of which were against very fundamentally sound fighters (in addition to other attributes). I think he was so successful in his career because his other intangibles – chin, power, dynamic punching, etc – typically overwhelmed his opponents. Is this a fair assessment?
Bread’s response: I don’t know if Bud has the desire to run the table at 168. He just won all of the belts including The Ring’s at 168. He may sit and wait patiently for his next move instead of rushing to fight tough, big contenders. I think Canelo accomplished a heck of a lot, given his physical dimensions. He’s one of the shortest champions ever at 168 and 175.
I think the large majority of great American fighters after 1960 have elite amateur pedigree. For example, the golden era of heavyweight boxing was in the 1970s. Well, that’s because Ali, Frazier and Foreman all won gold medals in the 1960s. Ray Leonard and Michael Spinks went on to become two of the better fighters of the 1980s. They won gold medals in the 1970s. Roy Jones, Evander Holyfield, Pernell Whitaker and Lennox Lewis were four of the best fighters of the 1990s. They all won medals in the Olympics in the 1980s. Holyfield and Jones should have been gold medalists.
I have seen that there seems to be a “Mason Dixon line” with great fighters. There are greats who were either solid amateurs but not Olympians or just special talents with no big amateur careers. And then there are blue chip, elite amateur greats, and when fights happen between the two, the Olympic fighter usually gets the better of it. I would say 70 per cent of the time the Olympic fighter has the advantage.
Let’s look at the match ups where the Olympic fighter came out on top in these big match ups. Spinks versus Qawi; Leonard versus Hagler, Duran and Hearns. Ali versus Liston. Lewis versus Tyson. Holyfield versus Qawi. Oscar versus Tito. I know Tito technically won, but Oscar gave him fits and deserved the nod. Jones versus Toney and Hopkins. I can go on about this. Canelo did beat GGG and Cotto. And Bud was not an Olympian. But Bud has pedigree, and he understands how to score points. I also think Bud had Olympic potential.
I think that high-level amateurs bother everyone. Not just Canelo. No one feels like dealing with elite amateurs because of how reactive they are to scoring points.
I think Canelo has a great jab. He just doesn’t use it much versus southpaws. I think Canelo’s issues versus some – not all – boxers are he’s a natural counter-puncher. And when the boxer doesn’t give him counter opportunities it frustrates him. It also forces him to attack and, while he can attack, you can see his attack coming because he doesn’t have the fastest feet. So in his losses to Mayweather, Bivol and Bud they were able to hit him from a distance he couldn’t hit them from. In order for him to overcome that he would have to evolve into a higher-volume fighter who throws 70 punches a round and punches in rapid combinations. That’s not him. So it’s just not the lack of amateur pedigree – although it could be a factor, it’s where he’s at right now with his physical and style dimensions.
I hope you and your loved ones are all well, Stephen,
I scored the fight 116-114 in favour of Canelo, and then twice more as 114-114. The two judges who scored it 115-113 need one swing round to arrive at 114, so it seemed that close to me. In the aftermath of the celebrations and everyone lauding Crawford, I still did not feel satisfied and couldn’t find the Compubox stats until two days after the fight. What it confirmed for me is what many boxers tend to miss – total punches landed do not tell the full picture, something you have mentioned before regarding boxing being scored on a round-by-round basis. If one fighter – to take my argument to an extreme – lands 1,000 punches in one round and 10 per round in the other 11 rounds, and the other fighter lands 20 per round, the second fighter wins 11 of the 12 rounds and thus should win the fight. So, total punches have to be seen in relation to each round. Of course we have effective aggression, ring generalship, defense, etc, to take into account. Based on the Compubox stats – I will come to the swing rounds – rounds two, four, five, eight and 10 belong to Alvarez, with rounds one and three swing rounds. If I give both swing rounds to Alvarez, he wins 7-5; if I give one to each boxer, it’s a draw. In fact, I thought Alvarez had Crawford in trouble in round 10, and I thought Crawford might get knocked down just as Crawford had Alvarez in a bit of bother in the last round, despite Alvarez’s high punch count in that round. Apparently, this is the second highest punches that were landed by an opponent on Crawford after Kavaliaskus. My question to you, my good sir, is – is there a case to be made for Canelo winning or at the very least drawing?
Kind regards,
Llewellin RG Jegels
Bread’s response: No disrespect, but I think you have lost your mind. You’re trying too hard to get Canelo a win in your mind. He lost the fight. I get your point about punch stats, and you have a point about the overall punch stats. But put that aside. For this particular fight, I don’t care what the punch stats say. If the judges would have awarded Canelo that fight, it would’ve been one of the worst decisions in boxing history. Please stop. Even Canelo does not think he won.
Hey Bread,
Here’s a scenario – let’s say Usyk beats Parker and Kabayel next year and retires, Bud drops to middleweight, beats Janibek and Adames and then retires unified 160lbs champ, Inoue beats Picasso and Nakatani and unifies at 126 by beating Leo and Ball and then retires. How do you rank them then in terms of the best of this era? I wouldn’t argue if you picked any of them. Each would have a strong case. Mythical match-up: Crawford v Hagler?
Stay cool,
Paolo, London
Bread’s response: Bud is my top guy of this era pound for pound, and if he did that he would still be my top guy. Usyk is the best heavyweight, which is the baddest man on the planet. Inoue is the youngest of the bunch. He has the most title wins. He’s the most destructive. And he has the most time to add to his legacy. Let’s just appreciate all three.
Sup Bread,
Couple of observations about the bout last Saturday. You were absolutely right about smaller fighters sometimes doing better at higher weight classes due to speed. I honestly feel that arm length was not the factor at all, as Crawford mostly landed counters or punches in mid-range. It was the difference in hand speed that was the biggest factor. Canelo had pretty much abandoned his jab, bob and weave and combinations in favor of hard one or one-two types of punches. The last fight where he did all of these was the Jacobs bout. Since then he had become quite comfortable being the guard-based pressure fighter with good body shots. He should have swarmed like Hagler did against Leonard from rounds four to 12. Like you said, he has never been that Pryor or Qawi-type of pressure fighter. I feel that Crawford is among the top three fighters in the 21st century, along with Mayweather and Pacquiao. Roy’s best work was in the 20th century. What do you think Crawford’s next move should be? I think he cannot beat Bivol or Benavidez, even if they come down to 168. Middleweight and super middleweight have nothing left for him that will gain him any credit. Should he risk fighting Ennis or Ortiz if they are willing?
Regards,
Saurabh
Bread’s response: Just because Bud countered doesn’t mean his reach wasn’t a factor. Bud’s jab gave Canelo fits. When Canelo would lead, oftentimes he would come up just short. Whereas Bud would be able to counter him clean because Canelo was stuck in Bud’s range but Bud was slightly outside of Canelo’s range. One of the reasons I picked Bud was his significant reach advantage over Canelo, among other things.
Hi Bread,
In a previous email I said I thought Canelo would win and have the better defense in the exchanges – clearly, I was wrong. Crawford fought a great fight – mostly boxing, but mixing in enough close-range exchanges, especially after Canelo’s best round. I wonder if that was deliberate, just to show Canelo he can handle any type of fight. Overall, Crawford was clearly the better fighter, and Canelo didn’t come out on top in any aspect – not even the close-range exchanges, as I had expected. I’m curious – if you were in Canelo’s corner, what instructions would you have given him as the fight went on? This reminded me of Pavlik vs Hopkins – it just seemed like Hopkins had the answer to everything Pavlik tried. And if you were in Crawford’s corner would you have told him to do anything different?
Thanks,
Jesse from Alaska
Bread’s response: In retrospect, Canelo did better than Pavlik did. I’m not sure if Pavlik won one round. Canelo won four or five rounds. Reynoso has done a tremendous job with Canelo. I see they work on fast combinations. I just think it’s too energy depleting for Canelo to do in real fights. That’s not on Reynoso. I also don’t like to second guess a coach and say what I would’ve done in his position.
What I noticed was Canelo likes to intimidate his opponents by loading up with big shots. He may not score the KO but he puts them in survival mode. He also puts them in a mode where they don’t try to counter him because they’re busy covering up from the big shot. Canelo has been spoiled with his opponent’s reaction to his big shots and it’s allowed him to cruise to victories.
But Bud Crawford doesn’t seem to be the type of fighter who gets intimidated. So, therefore, one big punch at a time is not enough to beat him specifically. Canelo landed a left uppercut, straight-right combination in the fight. It was a great combination and Bud acknowledged it. If Canelo would have punched in twos and threes in rapid fire he wouldn’t have been so easy to counter. I also feel like a fast double jab and not just a hard single one would have better served him. But let me tell you something – I picked Bud because of Canelo’s tempo and one-big-shot-at-a-time rhythm at this point in his career. So that’s just what Canelo is at this point.
I think Terence Crawford should fight Oleksandr Usyk for the undisputed heavyweight championship of the world. If Crawford won he would be remembered as the greatest boxer of all time. I don’t think Crawford would win, I just think it’s the best move for his career. Would you want that fight to happen? If not, who do you want Crawford to fight?
Bread’s response: I think you want to see Bud get hurt. I think you’re insane. Bud is special but he can’t fight or beat Usyk. Come on with that lunacy. You’re better off saying, ‘I’m mad Bud beat Canelo, so I want to see him in a bad match up I know he can’t win’. Just give Terence Crawford his props and stop the madness.
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