Performances against common opponents under pressure-packed conditions are one way to ascertain potential trends, and in this case their four combined fights against Taylor will be used. Granted, Pavlik is 2-0 against “Bad Intentions” while Hopkins is 0-2, but many pundits to this day insist that “The Executioner” did enough to turn back Taylor in both bouts, so comparing their numbers would not represent an outrageous exercise.

The first Pavlik-Taylor fight was a heart-stopping brawl that saw both taken to the brink of competitive extinction before the Buckeye Bomber prevailed by seventh round TKO. Pavlik unleashed nearly 66 punches per round (nearly 10 above the divisional average of 56.5) while Taylor, criticized for his tepid efforts against Cory Spinks and Wright (where he averaged just 38 punches per round), was far more combative simply because he had to be.

Pavlik landed 43 of 86 (48 percent) in the first round while Taylor was 26 of 72 overall (36 percent), landing 12 of 38 jabs (32 percent) and 14 of 34 power punches (41 percent.) Taylor nearly turned the tide for good as he floored Pavlik and had him all but out, connecting on 52 of 75 (69 percent) and an incredible 42 of 50 power shots (86 percent). Most fighters would have crumbled under this onslaught, but not only did Pavlik regain his equilibrium, he posted fight-highs for punches thrown (99), power attempts (53) and power connects (22) in the very next round. The pair continued to hammer away in the fourth through sixth rounds at the frantic pace Pavlik preferred and because each of the Ohioan’s punches carried more power Taylor eroded at a much faster face. The effects of Pavlik’s steady work manifested themselves in the seventh as a savage combination capped by two hooks prompted referee Steve Smoger to stop the fight. In that final round, Pavlik out-landed Taylor 23-5 overall and 15-3 in power shots.

Taylor led on all scorecards (59-54 and 58-55 twice), perhaps because he was the more accurate fighter. The Arkansan connected on 49.3 percent of his shots overall (182 of 369), 37.2 percent of his jabs (77 of 207) and an astonishing 64.8 percent of his power attempts (105 of 162). Pavlik, on the other hand, landed 39.1 percent of his total shots (180 of 460), 32 percent of his jabs (80 of 250) and 47.6 percent of his power shots (100 of 210). Despite the wild toe-to-toe action, both combatants exceeded divisional norms for connect percentage in all categories.

The contractually mandated rematch five months later was staged at a catch-weight of 164 and while it wasn’t nearly as explosive as the original but the result was largely the same as Pavlik won a unanimous decision (117-111, 116-112, 115-113). While Taylor managed to stay off the ropes and uncorked the more eye-catching blows he simply didn’t throw enough of them to counteract Pavlik’s steady work. On balance Taylor was much more cautious as he averaged just 38.6 punches per round (27 percent less than in the first fight) and 68 percent of them were jabs. But when he decided to throw power shots he connected on 53.5 percent of them (46 of 86).

Meanwhile, Pavlik’s numerical effectiveness across the board dropped markedly. He landed 30.2 percent of his blows overall (147 of 487) as opposed to 39.1 percent in the first bout, 29.5 percent of his jabs (85 of 288) as opposed to 32 percent and 31.2 percent of his power shots (62 of 199) as opposed to 47.6 in the original. But because he raised his output from 66 punches per round to 70 in the rematch – and because Taylor decreased his so dramatically – Pavlik was able to put round after round in the bank.

That was what doomed Hopkins in his two bouts with Taylor. In the first bout in July 2005, a hotly disputed split decision Hopkins out-landed Taylor 96-86 overall and 78-50 in power shots and was more accurate in all three categories (29 percent to 19 percent overall, 17 to 14 percent in jabs and 36 to 26 in power shots). But because Hopkins threw just 27.2 punches per round (less than half the middleweight average of 56.5) to Taylor’s 37.8, “Bad Intentions” won enough of the close rounds to turn the fight his way.

The closeness of the first bout – and the uproar that accompanied the decision – brought about the rematch less than five months later. In another cerebral affair Taylor won a razor-thin 115-113 nod across the board in a bout that saw Hopkins improve slightly offensively and Taylor degrade somewhat. Hopkins landed 130 of 371 overall (35 percent), averaging 30.9 punches per round as opposed to 27.2, while Taylor connected on 124 of 391 (32 percent) overall, throwing 32.6 punches per round as opposed to 37.8 in the original. Hopkins out-landed Taylor 101-60 in power shots and connected at a higher rate in that category (42 percent to 33) but Taylor somewhat neutralized that edge by out-jabbing Hopkins 64-29.

The combined numbers of Pavlik and Hopkins against Taylor offer a stark contrast. Hopkins’ “scratch and sniff” approach allowed him to clog Taylor’s offense at the expense of his own as he averaged 29 punches and 9.4 connects to Taylor’s 35.2 and 8.8 connects while losing two close decisions. However, Pavlik’s high-octane approach (67.6 punches per round and 23.4 connects) might have invited plenty of counter-fire (45.6 punches and 20.9 connects) but ultimately resulted in the two biggest wins of his career.

Hopkins’ last appearance against Calzaghe, also known for his high-volume attack, offers insight as to how he might approach Pavlik but maybe not how he should – at least in terms of output. Against “Super Joe,” Hopkins averaged 39 punches per round overall and while he did manage to score a first-round knockdown and slow the Welshman’s offense to 58.9 blows per round it wasn’t enough to allow his acumen to overshadow Calzaghe’s activity. Calzaghe was 232 of 707 overall (33 percent) while out-jabbing Hopkins 45-11 and piling up a 187-116 edge in power shots.   Those 232 landed punches by Calzaghe were the most by a Hopkins opponent in 21 of his fights tracked by CompuBox.

At age 43, Hopkins is a wonder of physiology and psychology but if he wants to spring the upset against Pavlik he must turn back the clock in terms of activity. In the 11 Hopkins fights tracked by CompuBox from 1990 to 2002, “The Executioner’s” numbers are as follows:

Hopkins’ stats
Overall: 52.7 thrown/21.8 landed, 41.5 percent
Jabs: 16.6 thrown/4.7 landed/28.1 percent
Power punches: 36.0 thrown/17.2 landed/47.6 percent

Opponents’ stats
Overall: 35.6 thrown/9.8 landed/27.5 percent
Jabs: 16.5 thrown/2.6 landed/15.9 percent
Power punches: 19.0 thrown/7.2 landed/37.6 percent

In the 10 fights tracked by CompuBox after 2003, the numbers change dramatically:

Hopkins’ stats
Overall: 41.6 thrown/15.0 landed/36 percent
Jabs: 10.1 thrown/2.1 landed/20.6 percent
Power punches: 31.5 thrown/12.9 landed/40.9 percent

Opponents’ stats
Overall: 44.1 thrown/10.2 landed/23.2 percent
Jabs: 21.2 thrown/3.8 landed/17.9 percent
Power punches: 22.9 thrown/6.4 landed/28.1 percent

Over the years Hopkins’ output has dropped 22 percent while his connects per round declined by nearly a third. His jab output is down almost 40 percent and his connect rate down by nearly half. His power numbers have suffered the least (12.5 percent down in attempts, 25 percent in connects) because that is how he takes advantage of the openings his opponents offer. Conversely, his defensive numbers have improved. His foes averaged 20 percent more attempts overall but Hopkins allowed just four percent more to get through. In jabs, they pumped in 24 percent more and got in a third more, but Hopkins’ defense against power shots provide the key to his longevity. There, his opponents unleashed 17 percent more at him but Hopkins allowed 13 percent fewer to get in – and given the quality of his recent opposition that’s impressive.

Prediction: To compete with Pavlik on a round-by-round basis Hopkins can do one of two things. His first option is to restore his offense back to previous levels so that the activity gap Pavlik is likely to impose won’t be so dramatic in the judges’ eyes. The second option, which is most likely given his age, Hopkins will try to use his bag of tricks to slow Pavlik down to his level and take the fight into the late rounds.  Pavlik has fought past the ninth  round just once, while Hopkins was gone past the ninth 24 times.  He was able to “sludge” Taylor, Wright and Antonio Tarver to great effect but he couldn’t completely bog down Calzaghe. What then, can Hopkins do against Pavlik, a younger, stronger, harder-hitting but less savvy version of “Super Joe?”

The answer: Not enough. At 6-3 and armed with a 75-inch reach, Pavlik matches up well physically against the 6-1 Hopkins and while he lacked his middleweight explosiveness when he fought Taylor at 164 numbers, not power, is at the heart of Pavlik’s game. As long as Pavlik doesn’t allow his offense to be inhibited by Hopkins’ mind games he has the tools to not only defeat but also dominate Hopkins, who is still “old school” but is also old. Calzaghe’s consistent work forced Hopkins to uncharacteristically show outward signs of discouragement, and should Pavlik follow the Welshman’s lead – and sprinkle in his extra power – don’t be surprised if Pavlik wins by a late-round TKO.