CompuBox Pre-Analysis: Kelly Pavlik vs. Bernard Hopkins

[BIGPOPPAPUMP]

By CompuBox - Both Bernard Hopkins and Kelly Pavlik fancy themselves as members of the old school. They work extremely hard in the gym, stay in shape between fights and, most importantly, they are willing to challenge themselves when given the freedom to choose opponents.

Consider the gauntlet Hopkins has walked just since he turned 40 in January 2005 – the 40-1 Howard Eastman, Jermain Taylor (twice), Antonio Tarver, Ronald “Winky” Wright, Joe Calzaghe and now Pavlik. And Pavlik has been no slouch as he has tangled with Jose Luis Zertuche, Edison Miranda and Jermain Taylor twice before blowing out Gary Lockett this past June in a fight he had to take to avoid being stripped of his WBC middleweight title belt. With Pavlik’s mandatory out of the way and Hopkins needing a big fight after losing to Calzaghe, they turned to each other to feed their need to compete. The 26-year-old Pavlik (34-0, 30 KO) is a solid 3 ½-to-1 favorite to turn back the 43-year-old Hopkins (48-5-1, 32 KO) in their October 18 12-rounder in Atlantic City, a bout with an agreed-upon 170-pound weight limit.

Performances against common opponents under pressure-packed conditions are one way to ascertain potential trends, and in this case their four combined fights against Taylor will be used. Granted, Pavlik is 2-0 against “Bad Intentions” while Hopkins is 0-2, but many pundits to this day insist that “The Executioner” did enough to turn back Taylor in both bouts, so comparing their numbers would not represent an outrageous exercise. [details]

[slicksouthpaw16]

Wow, I'm baffled at how many people are picking a stoppage against someone that has over 50 fights, has faced big punchers and have only been down two times. There were 3 things that he said which caught my attention. Pavlik stopping Hopkins, Pavlik having the tools to dominate Hopkins and this fight is going to be Hopkins/Calzaghe with the power. Pavlik is not multi dimensional the way Joe is, he is not a slick southpaw and he is also not that kind of pressure fighter. Joe comes in with the angles, is faster once he gets on the inside and has a busier workrate( IMO). Its an irrelevant comparison. The odds are that Kelly win in a close tough decision, but i can't see a stoppage either way.

[paledestroyer1]

I don't think pavlik will carry up the power and as the fight looms I am beginimg to think Hopkins will out hustle him and win by unanimous in a close but Lear decision

[j.razor]

Wow, I'm baffled at how many people are picking a stoppage against someone that has over 50 fights, has faced big punchers and have only been down two times. There were 3 things that he said which caught my attention. Pavlik stopping Hopkins, Pavlik having the tools to dominate Hopkins and this fight is going to be Hopkins/Calzaghe with the power. Pavlik is not multi dimensional the way Joe is, he is not a slick southpaw and he is also not that kind of pressure fighter. Joe comes in with the angles, is faster once he gets on the inside and has a busier workrate( IMO). Its an irrelevant comparison. The odds are that Kelly win in a close tough decision, but i can't see a stoppage either way.

B-Hop is 10-0 agaisnt southpaws...

[MWMerlino]

Unless Hopkins really does have brain damage (like Roach says) than he's not getting stopped.

[davidcashley]

Although I think Pavlik wins a decision due to punch output, I don't see him ko'ing BHop. I think BHop has a better chin that Taylor, and Pavlik couldn't knock Taylor out at 164, despite hitting him with numerous flush shots. How is he going to knock out Hopkins at 170, who not only has a better chin, but will probably be hit a lot less?

[Conmemay]

Calzaghe looked pathetic against Hopkins. I think Pavlik will do better against Hopkins than Joe did.