By CompuBox ( photo © HBO)
Of all the stylistic combinations a matchmaker can pair, the boxer versus the brawler has the most potential to produce a pleasing outcome because the contrast brings out the best – and the worst – in each combatant. On November 22 at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, the two most extreme exponents of each genre will meet when light-hitting but lightning quick Paul Malignaggi (25-1, 5 KO) meets rugged mauler Ricky “The Hit Man” Hatton (44-1, 31 KO) in a junior welterweight showdown. Hatton is a better than 2-to-1 favorite to defeat “The Magic Man.”
To get an idea of how each man would approach the other – at least numerically – this analysis will relive three fights in which each combatant faced a somewhat similar style. Because Hatton is defending his minor IBO belt, he will get the honors.
The last three speedy, slick and awkwardly effective boxers Hatton has faced are Carlos Maussa, Luis Collazo and Floyd Mayweather, against whom he went 2-1 (1 KO). At the time Hatton met Maussa on November 26, 2005 in Sheffield, England, he was five months removed from his career-best performance against Kostya Tszyu and was attempting to add Maussa’s IBF belt to his WBC strap. In the first five rounds the rubbery Colombian presented problems as his volume punching approach kept Hatton off balance and produced a dangerous eye cut. During that stretch Maussa averaged 76.8 punches per round to Hatton’s 53.2 en route to out-landing him 110-83 overall and 84-63 in power shots. Maussa amassed 20 or more overall connects in four of the five rounds while Hatton reached that plateau just once when he landed 21 blows in the fourth, the same number Maussa produced.
The fight began to turn in round six as Hatton’s steady pressure eroded, then eradicated Maussa. In rounds six through eight, Hatton turned up the offense slightly as he averaged 56 punches per round while Maussa’s work rate plunged from 76.8 to 57.6. From round six until the conclusion early in the ninth, Hatton was 70 of 187 (37.4 percent) to Maussa’s 49 of 196 (25 percent) overall, out-jabbing him 15-6 and forging a 55-43 edge in power connects. He out-landed Maussa in power shots in every round en route to a TKO at 1:10 of the ninth.
The final numbers reflected Maussa’s early dominance more than Hatton’s impressive stretch drive. Hatton was 153 of 453 overall (34 percent) to Maussa’s 159 of 580 (27 percent). In a curious style reversal, the brawling Hatton had better jab numbers (35 of 116, 30 percent to 32 of 158, 20 percent) while the lanky Colombian did better in power shots (127 of 422, 30 percent to 118 of 337, 35 percent).
Hatton’s first U.S. appearance as a main event attraction occurred on May 13, 2006 in Boston when he challenged WBA welterweight champion Luis Collazo, a slick but gritty southpaw from Brooklyn who felt he had a lot to prove. Hatton scored an instant knockdown in the first to get the ball rolling but Collazo fought his way back into it and enjoyed his biggest round in the fifth when he out-landed Hatton 21-7. The key stretch in this match was rounds seven through 11 when Hatton piled up advantages of 121-78 overall and 120-65 in power shots. Collazo, however, was never out of the fight emotionally and his mental strength nearly paid off in the 12th as he hurt and nearly had Hatton out on his feet. In that round Collazo reached fight highs in punches thrown (76), total connects (30), power punches thrown (62) and power connects (27). Hatton responded to this crisis by reaching fight bests in total connect percentage (48 percent, 25 of 52) and power percentage (50 percent, 24 of 48).
Hatton averaged 61.8 punches per round, an uncharacteristically high number, on his way to a 259 of 741 (35 percent) performance while Collazo was 213 of 721 (30 percent). As expected, Collazo produced far better jab numbers (46 of 241, 19 percent) but Hatton’s were abysmal against the lefty style.
He landed just 5 of 104 (5 percent) and in seven rounds – including rounds five through nine – he failed to land a single one. Hatton made up for it with a 97-52 bulge in power connects in rounds five through nine en route to a 254 of 637 (40 percent) performance to Collazo’s 167 of 471 (35 percent).
Against pound-for-pound king Mayweather Hatton did his best to impose his physical style and in the first five rounds he hung with “The Pretty Boy” numerically. During this phase Mayweather held slight edges in total connects (51-45) and power connects (42-36) while tying 9-9 in jab connects. Mayweather was slightly more accurate (31.5 percent to 23.9 percent) but Hatton managed to get off 26 more punches (188-162).
Mayweather asserted his overall superiority in rounds six through 10 en route to a scorching TKO victory. In those rounds Maywweather out-landed Hatton 78-26 overall, 21-2 in jabs and 57-24 in power shots, averaging 38 punches per round in rounds six through nine to Hatton’s 42 but landing at a 46.7 percent overall rate to Hatton’s 14.1. Mayweather out-landed Hatton 47-10 in rounds eight and nine, including a 17-0 bulge in jabs to set up the spectacular finish in the 10th.
In all, Mayweather was 129 of 329 (39 percent) to Hatton’s 63 of 372 (17 percent), 29 of 72 in jabs (40 percent) to 11 of 63 (17 percent) and 100 of 257 (39 percent) to 52 of 309 (17 percent).
While Mayweather thrived on effective efficiency, Malignaggi at his best is a high-energy stylist who is heavily dependent on the jab for success. The definitive example of Malignaggi at his best took place June 16, 2007 at the Mohegan Sun when he dethroned IBF junior welterweight champion Lovemore N’dou on a near shutout decision. There, “The Magic Man” lived up to the billing as he out-landed N’dou in every round, connected on 30 or more punches in seven rounds and led 33 of the 36 possible statistical categories.
Two segments illustrated just how dominant Malignaggi was against “The Black Panther.” In rounds four through six Malignaggi out-landed N’dou 106-59 overall, throwing 96 more punches (221-125), 57 more jabs (125-68), landing more jabs (59-16) and connecting on 49 percent of his power shots (47 of 96) to N’dou’s 26.1 percent (30 of 115). The other segment was rounds nine through 12 in which Malignaggi pulled away in breathtaking style. There, he out-landed N’dou 125-56 overall (including 67-25 in the final two rounds), 60-8 in jabs and 65-48 in power shots.
Malignaggi was 352 of 803 (44 percent) to N’Dou’s 161 of 664 (24 percent). As expected, Malignaggi dominated in jabs (193 of 486, 40 percent to 65 of 278, 23 percent) but he surprisingly showed similar command in power shots as he connected at a 50.2 percent rate (159 of 317) to N’dou’s 24.9 percent (96 of 386).
The rematch 11 months later in Manchester was a far different fight, and not for the good from Malignaggi’s standpoint. With hair extensions flying in his eyes and a broken right hand hindering his late-round performance, Malignaggi struggled to a split decision that nevertheless preserved this fight with Hatton.
The numbers in the first six rounds reflected Malignaggi’s dominant start as he piled up advantages of 112-69 overall, 63-26 in jabs and 49-43 in power shots. He averaged 63.3 punches per round to N’dou’s 40.7 and started the fight with three consecutive double-digit jab connect rounds. The second half, however, proved to be a gut check of the highest order as he tried to overcome the broken hand and a surging opponent, especially in the final three rounds. In rounds 10 through 12, N’dou out-landed Malignaggi 52-25 overall and 52-20 in power shots because “The Magic Man” dispensed completely with the jab in favor of an ugly smothering mauling style designed to run out the clock. Malignaggi, normally a jab master, connected on just one jab in the final two rounds while N’dou, desperate to cut into Malignaggi’s early lead, didn’t throw a single jab in the last three rounds.
“It’s never a good thing to stop jabbing, but I felt like he had a trajectory on my jab because I was only using my left hand,” Malignaggi told Versus’ Wally Matthews when asked why he abandoned his best punch. “I couldn’t throw my right hand anymore, it was broken, so I felt like he knew when the jab was coming.”
Despite N’dou’s late rush Malignaggi retained his statistical advantages. He was 170 of 676 overall (25 percent) to N’dou’s 145 of 524 (28 percent), landing 83 of 306 jabs (27 percent) to 34 of 139 (24 percent) and 87 of 370 in power punches (24 percent) to 111 of 385 (29 percent).
In between the two N’dou fights was a close but unanimous decision over Canadian/Cameroonian Herman Ngoudjo January 5, 2008 in Atlantic City. Like the second N’dou fight, Malignaggi-Ngoudjo was one that saw the champion enjoy a quick start only to fade in the later rounds. The Brooklynite established command of his jab in the first six rounds as he registered double-digit connects in each stanza and averaged 37 per round (far above the divisional average of 27.8 per round). His success with the jab powered him to advantages of 119-96 in total connects and 82-37 in jabs over the first six while Ngoudjo enjoyed a 59-37 edge in total connects but a 44 percent to 36.9 percent deficit in connect rate.
Once Malignaggi’s jabbing eroded, so did his game. In rounds seven through 12, Malignaggi averaged just 18.6 jabs per round and that allowed Ngoudjo to close the gap both statistically and on the scorecards. He out-landed Malignaggi 94-89 overall and 92 more punches in the process (326-234). What saved Malignaggi was that he managed to land his power shots at a far higher rate (45.1 percent to 28.4 percent), enabling him to close his connect deficit to 63-55 despite attempting 100 fewer blows. In rounds nine through 11, Malignaggi topped the 50 percent mark in power connects and he managed to survive a strong 12th by Ngoudjo (15 of 60 to 11 of 37) to grab the decision.
Prediction: Look for both men to be in better physical and mental condition than when they shared the bill in Manchester this past May. Each will be highly motivated to score a big win against the kind of name opponent that will justify even more lucrative fights down the road. Both men’s contingents will also be in full bellow mode, which will make for an electric atmosphere.
At his best, Malignaggi has the hand and foot speed to befuddle Hatton and the sharp jabs to take advantage of the Briton’s vulnerable scar tissue. On the negative side the New Yorker doesn’t possess the power to make Hatton respect him, so he will have to rely on volume to pile up points and steadily wear down his opponent. As for Hatton, he has the hyperactive smothering pressure to force Malignaggi to fight at a faster pace than he wants and the late-round strength to close the deal.
If Malignaggi is in top shape, which is defined as the ability to move and stay sharp for all 12 rounds, then he is highly capable of pulling off the upset. If he is even a little out of condition, however, Hatton can swallow him whole in the late rounds en route to a unanimous decision win. The highly hesitant guess: Malignaggi by close decision. The question is, will the pro-Hatton house and Golden Boy juice sway the judges Hatton’s way?
