By Cliff Rold

Appearing sometimes less refined than the rest of the field, rugged Brit Carl Froch entered the “Super Six” as one of the underdogs.  Saturday, he could leave Denmark as the tournament leader.  To do so, he’ll have to contend with a hostile crowd and a potentially desperate former champion.

Desperate because it wasn’t long ago Mikkel Kessler was considered the man to beat in the field.  A beating at the hands of Andre Ward in the opening round changed perceptions.  If Kessler wants to be considered a serious threat to win through what would demand five contests, he can’t take a second straight loss to kick things off.

It’s an old scenario which never gets old: the streaking titlist versus the former champion who needs, as much as wants, a win.

Let’s go the report cards.
 
The Ledgers

Carl Froch
Age: 32
Titles: WBC Super Middleweight (2008-Present, 2 Defenses)
Previous Titles: None
Height: 6’1
Weight:  167.25 lbs.
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 167.1 lbs.
Hails from: Nottingham, Nottinghamshire, United Kingdom
Record: 26-0, 20 KO
BoxingScene Rank: #3
Record in Championship Fights: 3-0, 1 KO
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 3 (Robin Reid, Jean Pascal, Jermain Taylor)

Vs.
 
Mikkel Kessler
Age: 31
Title: None
Previous Titles: WBA Super Middleweight (2004-06, 3 Defenses); WBA/WBC (2006-07, 1 Defense); WBA Super Middleweight (2008-2009, 2 Defenses)
Height: 6’1
Weight: 167 lbs.
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 167.45 lbs.
Hails from: Copenhagen, Denmark
Record: 42-2, 32 KO
BoxingScene Rank: #5
Record in Major Title Fights: 8-2, 6 KO
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 6 (Dingaan Thobela, Julio Cesar Green, Manny Siaca, Anthony Mundine, Eric Lucas, Markus Beyer)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced in Defeat: 2 (Joe Calzaghe, Andre Ward)
 
Grades
Pre-Fight: Speed – Froch B-; Kessler B
Pre-Fight: Power – Froch B; Kessler B+
Pre-Fight: Defense – Froch C; Kessler B-
Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Froch B; Kessler B

It could be the speed of Andre Ward, and Kessler’s inability to get off with Ward’s hands seemingly growing out of his face, made Kessler look like a slowed man.  It could also be that he’s legitimately slowed from where he was during his strong run years from 2004-07.  Either way, Kessler should still retain some speed edge over Froch; it just isn’t assumed as what it would have been assumed as even a year ago.  With that edge, he should be able to snap the jab off and land it right away, but will he throw it enough.  Kessler, once a high output puncher, has slowed in recent vintage.  It would be a mistake with a Froch who is favored by a slowed pace. 

Froch just isn’t that quick, but he’s got a canny way of making it not matter so much.  Where Froch excels is in knowing when to throw a right hand more educated than it gets credit for.  Against Jermain Taylor and Jean Pascal, Froch weaved through holes to land the shot and multiplied it as the fight wore on.  He also has an awkwardly angled jab that throws off the rhythm of foes.

In terms of power, Kessler again probably has the edge but not by much.  He’s scored more knockouts, in more fights, but never knocked out someone who would be considered genuinely elite.  Kessler’s right hand, and uppercuts, are heavy but they’re not consistent lights out finishers.  Froch is also heavy handed and while his technique doesn’t look right, he’s old school enough to take his licks where he can get them.  He will hit an arm, a shoulder, while working to more sensitive and orthodox targets.  His win over Taylor was all about chipping away one shot at a time until Taylor collapsed.

Defensively, Froch is wide open and, no matter how tough, regularly eating shots to the chin will eventually catch up.  Pascal and Andre Dirrell had him stunned; Taylor had him on the floor and hurt.  Kessler’s fundamental, no frills boxing could be the worst case scenario for Froch because, unlike those fighters, Kessler can’t rely on more natural physical gifts.  If Kessler moves his hands, and gets his timing down early, Froch is going to have to walk through more than he is accustomed.  Conversely, Kessler isn’t tough to hit but does cover up well behind a high guard and has decent head movement when he needs it.

Both men have solid chins but their level of resolve could be a deciding factor on Saturday.  Kessler, as the Ward fight wore on, looked frustrated and eventually reserved to defeat well before the fight ended.  It was a give he didn’t have on his way up or even against Joe Calzaghe where he kept trying even after being hurt to the body late.  One wonders if Kessler’s confidence has been shaken enough to leave him without an A-game; one also wonders, in seeing his gentlemanly demeanor after defeats, if Kessler might be just a wee bit too nice for the really rough stuff.  Froch doesn’t show any give right now and he sure as hell never comes off too nice; he rushes headlong and balls out at everyone right now.  It’s dangerous but, if the fight comes down to a question of who really wants it late, who is really the safer bet? 

The Pick    

In terms of fundamentals and pure boxing, Kessler has the edge in this contest.  He’s also probably more athletic.  One, the other, or both have been true of all Froch’s last three opponents and Froch is still undefeated.  Froch isn’t just the man with the wind at his back here; he’s also fresher and more comfortable if things break down into a grind.   

So far, no one has emerged unscathed in the Super Six from what could be considered the home court disadvantage.  It wouldn’t be surprising if things stay that way Saturday but Froch seems the right guy to break that tide.  He’ll struggle early with Kessler’s jab but, as has increasingly been the case, Kessler’s lessened activity level won’t be enough to keep Froch from coming forward.  As he does, the heavy hands of Froch should make Kessler start to think and slow down the stretch, Froch’s right hand landing more frequently.  

Look for Froch to win enough rounds late to come from behind on the cards for a split decision victory in a grueling and physical encounter.    

Report Card Picks 2010: 12-3

Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel and the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com