by Cliff Rold
The easiest road to a rematch, the one we probably expect more, is the sequel meant to resolve a controversy. One fighter or another loses a nail biter, or the public cries foul to an outrageous decision. The promoters print the tickets and we pay to see it again.
The better road is being traveled this weekend.
Match two top level undefeated fighters, both in their prime, and watch as they deliver a world-class affair. At the end, we get a winner almost everyone agrees on but it’s the sort of fight where one could see the defeated making some adjustments and finding a way to win if they do it again. There is no hemming and hawing, no request for several soft touches in between.
They sign on the dotted line and get ready to do it again.
Saturday, this is boxing at its best. This is Carl Frampton-Leo Santa Cruz II (Showtime, 10 PM EST/7 PM PST).
Let’s go to the report card.
The Ledgers
Carl Frampton
Age: 29
Current Title: WBA featherweight-“super” (2016-Present, 1st attempted defense
Previous Titles: IBF super bantamweight (2014-16, 3 Defenses), WBA super bantamweight (2015)
Height: 5’5
Weight: 125 lbs.
Hails from: Belfast, Northern Ireland, United Kingdom
Record: 23-0, 14 KO
Rankings: #1 (TBRB, ESPN, Boxing Monthly, BoxRec), #2 (BoxingScene, Ring)
Record in Major Title Fights: 5-0, 1 KO
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 5 (Steve Molitor TKO6; Kiko Martinez TKO9, UD12; Hugo Cazares KO2; Scott Quigg SD12; Leo Santa Cruz MD12)
Vs.
Leo Santa Cruz
?Age: 28
Title: None
Previous Titles: IBF bantamweight (2012-13, 3 Defenses); WBC super bantamweight (2013-Present, 4 Defenses); WBA featherweight-“Super” (2015-Present, 1 Defense)
Height: 5’7 ½
Weight: 125 lbs.?
?Hails from: Rosemead, California (Born in Mexico)
Record: 32-1-1, 18 KO
Rankings: #2 (ESPN, Boxing Monthly, BoxRec), #3 (BoxingScene, Ring), #5 (TBRB)
Record in Major Title Fights: 11-1, 6 KO
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 7 (Eric Morel TKO5; Alexander Munoz TKO5; Victor Terrazas KO3; Cristian Mijares UD12; Abner Mares MD12; Kiko Martinez TKO5; Carl Frampton L12)
Grades
Pre-Fight: Speed – Santa Cruz B+; Frampton B+
Pre-Fight: Power – Santa Cruz B; Frampton B
Pre-Fight: Defense – Santa Cruz B; Frampton B
Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Santa Cruz A; Frampton A
In examining the road to victory for Frampton the first time around, this scribe provided the following in the post-fight report card last July:
This was not just a brawl, though there was enough of that to please anyone. We saw both guys show each other multiple looks, the expected late surge from Santa Cruz, and a blazing final three minutes.
The multiple looks played to Frampton’s advantage. Santa Cruz was best, is always best, when he can come forward. He can box well enough to set up some good counters but it’s not where he is at his best. When Santa Cruz bit down and pressured, he had his best-sustained moments.
Frampton is capable off the front and back foot. It didn’t slow the Santa Cruz output by much, but it was enough to set traps and counter. Frampton more than held his own inside, sitting down and exchanging in spots and beating the defending featherweight titlist to the punch often enough to control most of the first eight rounds.
To his credit, Frampton appeared to get the better of the bodywork and that was a little surprising. Santa Cruz needed to get to the body to make the late rounds work for him and he didn’t get enough done there. Frampton was clearly tired late. He wasn’t worn down though and got enough leather in to keep Santa Cruz honest.
Frampton also showed he could take it. He took some big shots in the final three rounds but the most obviously wobbled either man was came in the second when Frampton almost knocked Santa Cruz down. There were surely some Stateside skeptics after Alejandro Gonzalez had Frampton down twice in the first last year.
Skeptics often overrate a single bad round.
Those skeptics were purged after the first fight. There isn’t much reason to believe we get a dramatically different fight here no matter who wins. Their styles won’t change and the way they match up is just as good. This will come down to wrinkles, small adjustments from the first fight, in determining a victor.
There are plenty who see a way for Santa Cruz to win here. Santa Cruz closed strong. Even when Frampton was winning rounds with excellent movement and countering, they were often close rounds. The Irishman boxed as good a fight as a he could. If Santa Cruz starts faster, if he can get to Frampton before he can set to counter can be timed, he can win.
Conversely, is it possible Frampton can be better and we don’t realize it yet? It was Frampton’s debut in the class. He’ll be more comfortable this time with the knowledge he won the first time. He knows that, when he boxes, Santa Cruz is at a disadvantage. If Santa Cruz attempts to be more offensive early, he may have even more success with inside counters than he did the first time.
It’s going to be fun to see how it plays out.
The Pick
When the fun is over, the thinking here is we probably turn to a unification match between Frampton and Lee Selby, who unfortunately lost his chance to be on the card Saturday night when his planned opponent fell through. Great fighters make adjustments to upend opponents who have beaten them; very good fighters tend to lose when given a second chance against someone who proves better than them the first time. Santa Cruz is a very good fighter but it’s hard to see what he can do besides land more, and earlier, to offset the better all around game of Frampton. Frampton’s ability to beat him inside the first time is going to be a factor again. Santa Cruz will probably have another strong close but his lack of serious power works against him. The pick here is a Frampton repeat in another fan friendly affair.
Report Card and Staff Picks 2017: 0-1
Cliff’s Notes…
The chief support bout beneath Frampton-Santa Cruz II might just steal the show…After an over two-year layoff, former featherweight and Jr. lightweight titlist Mikey Garcia (35-0, 29 KO) returned last year to shake off the rust and jumps back into the title picture. He’ll challenge Dejan Zlaticanin (22-0, 15 KO) for the WBC lightweight title. Zlaticanin has had limited exposure on US TV but impressed in his lone outings of 2015 and 2016. He went on the road to defeat Ricky Burns in 2014 and also holds a win over Petr Petrov. Garcia is the taller man but this is the first serious lightweight he’s been in against. Conversely, Garcia is the best opponent of Zlaticanin’s career on paper. Garcia is more the marksman while Zlaticanin relies on quick hands and pressing, aggressive salvos. Can Zlaticanin take Garcia’s power? If so, his activity and willingness could wreak havoc. He goes to the body, finds holes upstairs, and stays defensively responsible. Many are looking for Garcia to pick up where he left off. The pick here is the upset with Zlaticanin outlanding and outworking Garcia over twelve rounds.
Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene, a founding member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com