Before the opening bell rings for Saul “Canelo” Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford, many of us will have ideas about how this world super middleweight title fight might play out on Saturday at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
Alvarez, 63-2-2 (39 KOs), is unbeaten at super middleweight and will rightly start as favorite against Omaha, Nebraska’s Crawford, 41-0 (31 KOs), who has never fought above junior middleweight.
Here we look at the habits, tendencies, strengths, and weaknesses that Canelo and Crawford have exhibited over the course of the many 12-round fights in which they’ve competed. The aim? To get a sense of what kind of contest to expect.
Round One: This is almost certain to be tense with the the crowd both loud and expectant. Canelo - not a fast starter - will likely come forward, watching for the trickery Crawford displays in terms of feints, both with his hands and feet. It’s worth noting that Crawford often loses the first round, like he did to Errol Spence in 2023, as he too tries to read his opponent. These are two very intelligent fighters and though the action might be slow, plenty will be going on in their heads.
Round Two: Alvarez lost early rounds to Sergey Kovalev, Gennadiy Golovkin, Caleb Plant and Billy Joe Saunders. The most notable fights to look at are when Alvarez fought light heavyweight Dmitry Bivol did not get the nod on the official judges cards in the opening rounds, but they did set the tone of the fight. Against a fighter moving up in weight such as Miguel Cotto, Alvarez started fast, but against Amir Khan, a speedster, Alvarez started slow, losing the early rounds.
Crawford traditionally stays within himself for the opening few rounds but he can explode when an opportunity to strike presents itself. Against Viktor Postol, Crawford started reserved before dropping him, and taking over the fight. Egidijus Kavaliauskas, also found early success against Crawford, which carried into these rounds.
Even so, already we should be watching out for the following: Are Alvarez’s punches having any impact on Crawford? Does Alvarez respect Crawford’s power? If Alvarez lands shots that push Crawford backward, especially shots that are blocked, the Mexican might be encouraged to attempt to bully Crawford, looking to slip and counter with something big. Alvarez might then also start to apply mental pressure, not always throwing, but looking to make Crawford move and work, expending energy.
On the flip side, if Crawford takes Alvarez’s power, or Alvarez is unable to land on Crawford, watch Alvarez’s body language. Crawford has a good, snappy jab and great ability at walking fighters into shots. Look at his ability to finish hurt opponents, for example; it is similar to the great “Sugar” Ray Leonard who would finish nearly all fighters he hurt. If Crawford begins to dictate the fight with Alvarez, how does Alvarez respond?
Rounds Three, Four, and Five: The adjustment rounds. Presuming all is not still quiet, one fighter will have to adjust as the fight starts to swing in the other’s favor.
Alvarez dropped John Ryder in the fifth round of their fight, Jaime Munguia in the fourth round, and Edgar Berlanga in the third. Alvarez has imposed his will on opponents in recent years without really moving into top gear.
Crawford stopped Kell Brook in the fourth round, but traditionally adjusts and separates in these rounds. He dropped Postol two times in the fifth round which changed the momentum of the fight.
If Alvarez’s power is impacting Crawford, then the latter will have to work on another plan without expending crucial energy that he’ll need in the second half. If Crawford enters these rounds down, this is where you’d start to see him take calculated risks.
If Alvarez finds himself getting outboxed and down on the cards, you will see him adjust by looking to impose his size. Despite the two being the same height, the density of Alvarez and his career being at super middleweight for five years, would lead many to believe he will be the heavier hitter of the two. Alvarez's adjustment would be to make the fight physical and ugly. Or be patient and wait for his shot. We could see Alvarez doing things we haven’t seen him do before, such as leaning on an opponent or something we have, which is looking to land shots on the arms of Crawford to lower his hand, which he did to Callum Smith.
Round Six, Seven, and Eight: This might be where the fight turns. If there’s to be knockdowns, they seem likeliest in this section of the fight.
History shows Alvarez’s early iconic moment came sending Austin Trout to the canvas in the seventh round. Alvarez also stopped Khan in the sixth, Saunders in the eighth round. These days, he doesn’t move the same as he did in his prime, but he is still one heck of a fighter. Now, Alvarez often looks to wear guys down with his power and size in these rounds, to reap the benefits later in the fight.
Crawford is lethal in these rounds. Crawford stopped Khan, Thomas Dulorme, and David Avanesyan in the sixth round. He also stopped John Molina Jnr in the eighth round. More so, Crawford’s power has been evident in these rounds. He dropped Errol Spence Jnr twice in the seventh round, and Kavaliauskas hit the canvas in the seventh round as well.
If the momentum of the fight was going in Alvarez’s favor, watch for Crawford to look to load up on a big shot when Alvarez is coming forward to rattle him, and if Alvarez is getting outboxed, watch him rip to the body and put punches together, giving up some of his defense to land punches that could swing the fight. If the fight is to live up to the substantial hype, these might be the rounds that we remember the most.
Round Nine and 10: Will Alvarez tire?
Alvarez has shown signs of fatigue at various points in his career notably against Bivol, but it wasn’t like earlier in his career when he would throw heavy power shots and take a round or two off. Now, he throws less, but is more methodical with his approach, able to preserve himself late into the fight. Alvarez stopped Liam Smith in the ninth round and stopped Alfredo Angulo in the 10th round. Yet, in all of Alvarez's toughest fights the ninth and 10th round have had mixed results. Alvarez lost the rounds to Floyd Mayweather Jr in a losing effort; Golovkin in their first fight began to pull away in these rounds; and despite dropping Trout earlier in the fight, Trout would rally back in the 10th. Against Erislandy Lara, they would split these rounds, as Lara grabbed the 10th round. It appears in the ninth, but traditionally, the 10th round Alvarez can take a break to pace himself for the final two rounds.
Crawford stopped Spence and Kavaliauskas in the ninth, Shawn Porter, Felix Diaz and Dierry Jean in the 10th. Crawford might not initially put his opponents down, but his shots erode the spirit and will.
The big question, too, could be Alvarez’s gas tank. At times, Alvarez has needed a second wind, especially against Golovkin in their first fight. Crawford has never shown fatigue issues at the highest level. As we enter the start of the championship rounds, the story might no longer be tactics but who has the most left.
Crawford has traditionally been at his strongest in rounds nine through 12 throughout his career, stopping Spence, Shawn Porter, Egidijus Kavaliauskas, Jose Benavidez Jnr, Felix Diaz, Jeff Horn, and Yuriorkis Gamboa in these rounds.
Round 11: At the highest level of the sport Alvarez has stopped Plant and Kovalev in the 11th round. More recently, he hasn’t pushed the pace in these rounds to go for a knockout in later rounds. For Crawford, it has been hard for him to get to this point. In fact, Crawford since fighting Ray Beltan in 2014, has only been to the 11th round four times. It is therefore hard to judge something you often don’t see.
If Alvarez’s power has affected Crawford, he goes all out looking for a stoppage. If Crawford is outboxing Alvarez, or even has hurt him in the fight, look for him to take away any confidence he has heading into the final frame. This is the round that could cement victory.
Round 12: Crawford stopped Jose Benavidez Jnr in 2018 in the 12th and final round of their fight. Crawford when facing WBA junior middleweight beltholder Israil Madrimov closed the fight strong to seal the victory. Alvarez has had seven straight fights see the 12th round with him typically in control of the fight, comfortably winning on the judges card. The exception was his loss to Bivol in 2022.
Both seem to love work in the final minute of the round and look to seal the victory. If the fight is close, no matter how gruelling, expect one final push from both in pursuit of victory.
