By Keith Idec

If, like essentially everyone invested in boxing, you want to finally get to see Canelo Alvarez fight Gennady Golovkin in September, don’t get your hopes up.

Much of what has transpired over the past two weeks suggests we’re more likely to settle for an Alvarez-David Lemieux fight come September. As disappointing as that would be, the foundation is being built for Alvarez to fight a former middleweight champion Golovkin knocked out, not Golovkin, if the Mexican superstar can overcome countryman Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. on May 6 in Las Vegas.

First and foremost, Montreal’s Lemieux (37-3, 33 KOs) did his part by knocking Curtis Stevens unconscious in the third round of their HBO “Boxing After Dark” main event March 11 in Verona, New York. That spectacular knockout was by far Lemieux’s most impressive victory in the three fights since Golovkin stopped him in the eighth round of their October 2015 bout at Madison Square Garden.

Lemieux’s impressive victory also re-established the former IBF middleweight title-holder as a candidate for another big fight. It helps, too, that Oscar De La Hoya’s Golden Boy Promotions represents Lemieux and Alvarez.

Golden Boy Promotions president Eric Gomez acknowledged in the immediate aftermath of Lemieux’s sensational stoppage of another Golovkin victim that Lemieux made himself a potential opponent for Alvarez. Gomez meant Lemieux could fight Alvarez after Alvarez and Golovkin fight, but the events thereafter made Lemieux a realistic option to challenge Alvarez before Golovkin gets that opportunity.

The most negative development in the Canelo-Golovkin saga has been the very public disagreement about whether Golovkin should fight WBO middleweight champion Billy Joe Saunders on June 10 in Golovkin’s native Kazakhstan.

De La Hoya has flat out said a Golovkin fight in June is a deal-breaker. There are too many things that could go wrong, according to De La Hoya, in a June 10 fight that would take place barely three months before an Alvarez-Golovkin fight, which likely would take place September 16.

“A June Golovkin fight would be a disrespect to everybody,” De La Hoya told ESPN.com on Thursday. “How serious do they want to make this fight happen? He could get cut, he could get dropped, he could get beat. You can hurt a hand. It would be too close to September and would not give us the proper time to promote a fight of this magnitude. The June fight would derail everything. How can we take a risk on him getting cut or hurt? The June fight would derail everything.”

De La Hoya has been avoiding an Alvarez-Golovkin fight for more than a year, but he makes several valid points in protesting Golovkin fighting in June.

Saunders possibly beating Golovkin obviously isn’t one of De La Hoya’s stronger arguments. Still, if he and Tom Loeffler, Golovkin’s promoter, come to a monetary agreement after Alvarez presumably beats Chavez, a Golovkin cut or injury June 10 could postpone the fight from its preferred date on Mexican Independence Day.

And while a Saunders upset seems highly unlikely, the financial terms De La Hoya and Loeffler agree upon before a Golovkin-Saunders fight might not make as much sense if Saunders takes Golovkin the distance for a second straight fight or if Golovkin struggles in any way against a huge underdog.

England’s Saunders (24-0, 12 KOs) isn’t as talented or skilled as Daniel Jacobs, but the highly competitive nature of Golovkin’s unanimous-decision victory over Jacobs (32-2, 29 KOs) on Saturday night at Madison Square Garden already diminished Golovkin’s value in an Alvarez fight. The fact that Golovkin-Jacobs drew only 170,000 pay-per-view buys weakened Golovkin’s bargaining power even more.

That leads us to another alarming issue that could make us settle for Alvarez-Lemieux in September.

Now that Golovkin (37-0, 33 KOs) is an undeniable “B” side against Alvarez (48-1-1, 34 KOs), he’ll likely have to accept less money than he would’ve made for fighting Alvarez before he struggled against Jacobs. How much less remains to be seen, but De La Hoya already has taken his offer of a $15 million guarantee for Golovkin off the table.

“I’m going to talk to Canelo about it … and figure out the structure,” De La Hoya told ESPN.com. “We have to look at today’s market. I’m not sure what the numbers are for this fight [against Jacobs], but I hear they’re low. For me to take a huge risk on a guarantee is absurd.”

Loeffler, managing director for K2 Promotions, says he preferred a “percentage deal” all along. That means Loeffler is willing to gamble on the fight doing big business on pay-per-view instead at the expense of seeking a huge guarantee for Golovkin.

Coming to a sensible split will make these Alvarez-Golovkin negotiations more complicated than ever. They couldn’t come to an agreement when Golovkin’s value was higher amid a 23-fight, eight-year knockout streak that helped make him boxing’s boogeyman, however real or imagined. How can we expect them to settle on a reasonable number now?

This grueling game of contract chess inevitably will lead to a lot of he said, he said about who really wants the fight and who doesn’t.

The prevailing feeling now, and understandably so, is that Golovkin wants to fight Alvarez much more than Alvarez wants to fight Golovkin. Alvarez deserves the criticism he has received for failing to fight Golovkin after what amounted to a disingenuous display of bravado in the ring after he knocked out Amir Khan on May 7 in Las Vegas.

If it were up to Golovkin and Loeffler, they would’ve fought already, perhaps as early as that same night Alvarez chose to fight a welterweight at a catch weight for his middleweight title.

Whether Alvarez and Golovkin finally fight in September ultimately could depend on Loeffler’s willingness to scrap Golovkin’s June 10 fight in Kazakhstan. One could argue that if Golovkin really wants the Alvarez fight, the opportunity to fulfill his dream of unifying all of the recognized middleweight titles still would present itself either late this year or early in 2018 if he were able to defeat Alvarez.

One also could point out that Golovkin, who’ll turn 35 on April 8, would make so much money for fighting Alvarez that squeezing in another fight June 10 isn’t necessary from a financial standpoint.

Loeffler, of course, could continue making the reasonable argument that Golovkin can’t pass on a substantial seven-figure payday for June 10 without any guarantee that Alvarez would fight him in September. Golovkin and Loeffler have every reason to be skeptical about an Alvarez fight taking place in the foreseeable future based on De La Hoya’s behavior throughout this ordeal.

And Alvarez just as easily could ruin a September showdown with Golovkin by suffering a cut or an injury against Chavez. Remember, he suffered a hand injury in his last fight that required surgery and an extended layoff. Though less likely, Alvarez also could lose against a bigger, stronger opponent May 6.

Those apparently aren’t chances Golovkin and Loeffler are willing to take. Loeffler has been adamant about there being more than enough time between a Golovkin-Saunders fight June 10 and the time Alvarez and Golovkin would report to training camp in July to properly promote a pay-per-view event of that magnitude.

De La Hoya clearly disagrees.

Thus the stage seemingly is set to push back Alvarez-Golovkin yet again, this time to 2018. De La Hoya did, after all, point out during the Canelo-Chavez press tour last month that Mayweather-Pacquiao took much, much longer to make than Alvarez-Golovkin has taken to date.

The implication was that if these divisive issues linger longer than we expect and the fight doesn’t get made for September, so be it. If Alvarez could avoid Golovkin by vacating the WBC middleweight title and moving back down to 154 pounds to fight Liam Smith, De La Hoya certainly wouldn’t hesitate to avoid Golovkin again by putting Alvarez in the ring with Lemieux – one of his own fighters and a known opponent “The Golden Boy” could sell as a dangerous puncher.

This is by no means an endorsement of an Alvarez-Lemieux matchup in September. It’s just that these potential problems in Alvarez-Golovkin negotiations are hard to ignore.

Hopefully these ominous signs aren’t accurate, Alvarez and Golovkin win their respective fights May 6 and June 10, and they’ll finally fight in September. Just don’t be surprised if everything that has transpired the past two weeks forces us to settle for Alvarez-Lemieux.

Keith Idec is a senior writer/columnist for BoxingScene.com. He can be reached on Twitter @Idecboxing.