Bakhram Murtazaliev-Josh Kelly preview: Who wins and how?

I played word association with Josh Kelly about eight months ago as we discussed the best fighters in his division.

He reckoned Keith Thurman was past it, said Vergil Ortiz was “a killer” but smiled broadly when Bakhram Murtazaliev was mentioned.

“Perfect fight for me,” he said.

Which is strange, really, because the overwhelming feeling out there is that Murtazaliev is far from a perfect fit for Kelly. If anything, he’s Kelly’s worst nightmare come true.

So why is it a fight Kelly has coveted?

All will be revealed tonight at the Newcastle Arena when Kelly challenges the IBF’s 154lbs champion for his crown.

Kelly is No. 3 with the IBF, the two spots above him are vacant, but No. 1 with the WBO ahead of WBO champ Xander Zayas and Abass Baraou, the WBA titlist, boxing in Puerto Rico later this evening.

Murtazaliev is 23-0 (17 KOs), a Russian who lives in California and who arrives in England with a fearsome reputation, based largely on the three-round destruction of Australian Tim Tszyu more than a year ago. That was Murtazaliev’s last fight. 

Murtazaliev wanted to be busier and has spoken in the build-up of moving either up or down in weight in search of more activity.

Kelly clearly has confidence, but confidence alone doesn’t win fights. There’s a feeling that if David Avanesyan was too good for him in 2021 then maybe someone who is better than Avanesyan is too good for Kelly now.

But there is a loud minority who believe Kelly has the flashy skills and movement to present Murtazaliev with problems but therein lies the questions; and there are plenty of them.

Kelly, 17-1-1 (9 KOs), insists he packs surprising power, but does he have enough to keep the champion at bay?

And if he can dazzle Murtazaliev, can he stay out of trouble for 12 rounds, not be taken to the ropes, not get worked over, not have his heartbroken?

It is easy to say Kelly needs to be impeccable for 12 rounds. We said that about Amir Khan before he fought Marcos Maidana and that turned into a wild, free-swinging affair, and Khan showed his mettle and durability.

Kelly, as Khan did in Las Vegas with the Argentine puncher, might well have to fight fire with fire at some point. One wonders whether Kelly will have the discipline not to get drawn in in front of his North East fans.

He looked a broken man against Avanesyan but he insists so much has happened since, in and out of the ring, that means he is a better fighter, has a stronger mind and he’s grown from the trauma.

It is certainly, one would have to assume, a case of now or never for the former 2016 Olympian. If he doesn’t win, how can he make a case for a big fight beyond domestic level? There’s no way he will appeal to the likes of the Vergil Ortiz, Jaron Ennis – who he has previously signed to fight – Sebastian Fundora et al. That’s not a harsh criticism. That’s the landscape.

Kelly, by his own admission, is horrible to fight. He’s quick, tricky, hard to pin down, and spiteful. With no reward at stake, the queue to face him will be short.

Fate and belief are not enough, however. Trainer Adam Booth is convinced it’s Kelly’s time and the Sunderland man’s promoters at Matchroom, who he has reunited with ahead of this bout, believe it’s a full circle moment.

Are they just trying to speak victory into existence?

Or is it realistic?

What Kelly does at his best is exhausting to pull off. Does he have the stamina to box 12 incredible rounds? Can he suppress the nervous energy and the excitement enough on his big night to keep his tank from faltering in the middle rounds, to keep him out of harm’s way long enough until the second wind kicks in?

Is Kelly’s big talk, promising not just a knockdown but a stoppage – and even pushing Murtazaliev at the press conference – false bravado, or is that someone taking control of his moment?

Things are not always all that simple.

Much has been made of Murtazaliev’s stone-face with plenty quick to call him scary. It is hard to think of a big fight being one solely by an opponent’s face.

It is another thing to have the ability to strike sporting fear into an opponent, like a Mike Tyson or Sonny Liston could, but the walls of the International Boxing Hall of Fame are not filled with those who have the “scariest” faces. Plenty were saying how “scary” Arslenbak Makhmudov was, but they weren’t saying that when Agit Kabayel set about him in Saudi Arabia, or when Guido Vianello stopped him.

And there is a danger that the world is looking too deeply into the Tszyu destruction and only that.

The champion has only gone 12 rounds once, but he’s only been scheduled for 12 three times. Sure, there are plenty of early wins, 11 inside three rounds, but by and large against non-descript opposition. 

Will inactivity play a part for either?

It’s been 15 months without a fight, since Tszyu, for Bakhram. Kelly has seen just two minutes of action in a similar time frame.

The champion has spoken of his frustration at not getting fights, but Kelly – on the other hand – reckons sparring regularly through the months means his timing and distance will be on point from the first bell.

They will certainly need to be. To that end, the oddsmakers have Kelly a clear second favorite and those who buy in only to what Kelly has shown them and not what he might do or what his potential might be are not at all convinced he has a chance.

Although you can’t discount talent and ability, you also can’t discount the past, and when the going got tough against Avanesyan it got really tough and trainer Booth made a sympathetic, compassionate and intelligent call to stop the fight.

I’d contend that lesser fighters than Kelly have taken Murtazaliev the distance, but also Murtazaliev has been guilty of cruising in fights.

Against Roberto Valenzuela in 2022, for instance, he looked lackadaisical and almost disinterred in times winning all eight rounds at a canter. In doing so, he switched off on occasion, retreating in straight lines and getting caught by occasional right hands.

The issue of weight here is interesting. Murtazaliev lurked almost two pounds under the limit at the scales yesterday, astonishing given so many who have seen him this week have talked about how big he looks, and while Kelly is clearly more comfortable at the weight than he was at 147lbs, some are concerned he is now not big enough, even though he was a pound heavier yesterday.

Because of big fights elsewhere, this fight is perhaps a little under the radar but it’s legitimately intriguing. I do believe Kelly can do it. The danger, as a Brit picking a Brit, is that many feel like patriotism impairs our judgement. Sometimes that makes us go the other way, however, and you cannot be convinced Kelly will do it.

The story of his full-circle moment is an easy sell, and while he can present Bakhram with some real problems – and Murtazaliev won’t get any favors on the cards – I can’t see Kelly keeping the champion off him for all 12 rounds. The caveat here is, I’m very much in that minority that sees this fight without logic being applied and thinks Kelly is very much a live underdog.