Junior middleweight is a great division and, in Xander Zayas-Abass Baraou and Bakhram Murtazaliev-Josh Kelly, we’re finally getting movement.
Zayas-Baraou is not only a unification matchup, it’s an interesting clash of styles. Murtazaliev-Kelly presents a similarly interesting clash of styles, and also gives us another chance to look at Murtazaliev – another of the champions – after over 14 months out.
If Zayas can beat Baraou and become a unified champion at 154lbs, he also becomes a particularly major player. As tough and experienced as Baraou is, he represents the kindest of the other reigning champions – which is a reflection of how strong the picture at 154lbs is, and also of the calculated risk Zayas is taking.
Zayas is a tall, rangy, good boxer-puncher. He has a good left hook to the body; a good jab; is extremely disciplined, and well conditioned. He’s also very marketable – he has the full package – and has been nurtured very well. This is a big test for him, but he also looks as ready as he’s ever likely to be. I don’t see how, on paper, Baraou can win.
I used to spar with Zayas – so has Baraou, by the way – so I’d like to believe I know how very good he is. But the outcome of this fight will be determined by intangibles – Baraou is so tough and has so much heart, and I admire him the confidence he’s shown by taking this fight as a promotional free agent, but the nature of their body types and styles make this Zayas’ fight to lose.
Like we saw with Raymond Muratalla’s victory over Andy Cruz, Top Rank are being very calculated in guiding Zayas’ career. They may not have the promotional power they’re used to without a broadcasting agreement, but they still have the same matchmaking abilities and the same understanding of how important it is that Zayas becomes the Puerto Rican hero he’s capable of being. I also know how hard Zayas’ team are pushing to progress him – there’s significant confidence in his chances from all of those around him.
The intangibles that are in the physically strong Baraou’s favour are those we can’t be sure of for Zayas. Zayas hasn’t been hurt and losing rounds, late on in a fight, at a high level – Baraou’s capable of providing that very test, and if Zayas can’t provide the right response then he’s at risk of being overwhelmed.
If he can, then this could prove the perfect test for him – if he can remain disciplined, his lateral movement, ability to punch at mid-range and advantage in height, reach and speed gives him all of the tools he requires to outbox the shorter Baraou while Baraou remains behind his high guard.
I expect Zayas to make a fast start from the outside – prioritising his lead hand and saving his right hand for counters – and to see Baraou attempting to close the distance from behind a high guard, absorbing punishment on his elbows and shoulders, and perhaps looking awkward. It’s in the middle rounds when Baraou should start to find his range by punching through Zayas’ shots if Zayas hasn’t by then earned his respect via his body punching and his jab. In the final rounds is when I expect Zayas to increase his efforts and close out victory. If he’s not, he’ll be at risk of getting broken down by Baraou, who’ll use his head, body and shoulders to try to overwhelm Zayas with pressure, but I expect him to impress in winning a routine unanimous decision, and therefore to become the Puerto Rican star the east coast lacks.
Murtazaliev was already being avoided before he did what he did to Tim Tszyu. In Kelly he’s fighting a younger opponent, with few options, striving to become a world champion – one who, against David Avanesyan at welterweight, has shown that he can break. The reality, because of that, is that Kelly had to take this fight – if he didn’t, he wouldn’t get a title shot somewhere else.
Questions, regardless, also surround Murtazaliev. Does he really deserve the reputation he has? Tszyu, it shouldn’t be forgotten, got blasted out by Sebastian Fundora two fights later. His win over Jack Culcay – the only fighter to beat Baraou – was impressive, but perhaps he’s not the killer he’s been made out to be, and therefore perhaps Kelly has a chance. This could yet be a real fight.
Murtazaliev’s brutally strong, big at the weight, mean, and technically sound – a fighter who systematically seeks to win. Kelly’s far more athletic and mobile, is fun to watch, and hard to hit. But he also uses a lot of energy, and against an opponent capable of making rings feel like they’re shrinking, of applying pressure with power, and of constantly trying to close the distance, he’s accepted a real test – even if skill-wise and style-wise it’s one that he can win.
Kelly has a 3D defence – up, down, left, right, and out. He can control the pace of a fight once he’s found his rhythm, and his attacks come from strange angles that can be hard to track. Even though he’s not a big puncher, if he can punch Murtazaliev with something he can’t see coming he’s capable of affecting him. In short, he’s capable of troubling far more proven fighters.
That Eddie Hearn has already spoken of matching Kelly with Jaron “Boots” Ennis is a demonstration of how easy that fight would be to make – and it would also be an entertaining fight. Murtazaliev has also said that he’d be willing to move down to 147lbs or up to 160lbs to pursue other champions – which to my mind is him simply making a statement to the other fighters in his division. It doesn’t mean that that’s what he’s actually about to do.
But I doubt that Kelly can handle Murtazaliev’s power, raw aggression and physicality. Despite believing Murtazaliev needs to truly prove he’s the fighter his reputation suggests, I also believe that he is. He’s a very, very dangerous fighter – and I expect him to show again why it is he’s being avoided.
It’s quite possible that Kelly gets stopped early. But it’s equally possible that he boxes brilliantly, to the extent that he looks on course for victory, before eventually wilting under the pressure Murtazaliev will apply and then struggling to resist how violent it could become, and then being stopped in the mid-to-late rounds.
