by Cliff Rold
There’s something different, a little more exciting and dramatic, about the big fights at heavyweight. While there is room for debate about whether these are absolutely the two best active big men in the game, it feels like they are. When the two best heavyweights in the world lock horns, fans run smack into reality.
All the pound for pound lists and silly conjectures about ‘what if featherweight x could fight middleweight y’ go out the window. When the big heavyweight circus rolls into town, the real kings of the ring are at center stage.
They are surely the two biggest stars in the division. On Saturday, they will draw a crowd just shy of the epic 100,000-plus affairs between Jack Dempsey and Gene Tunney. This might be the most attended heavyweight scrap since.
All of this for a fight between a man who lost wide seventeen months ago and hasn’t fought since and an upstart who arguably has yet to defeat a serious contender?
Whether we get a great fight or not, this is a testament to the power of promotion and brands. Klitschko is the name synonymous with the division for over a decade, a major attraction on the other side of the Atlantic with its share of quality ticket sales in the US as well. Anthony Joshua, who will hold home court at Wembley Stadium in his native UK, is the Olympic hero ready for his coronation.
There is a hell of a story to go with a hell of an event. What story will it be?
Is this the final vindication of Wladimir Klitschko? Once the most highly touted young gun in the division, even with a stoppage loss to journeyman Ross Purrity, Klitschko had some bad stumbles. He suffered a pair of disastrous defeats to Corrie Sanders and Lamon Brewster that left him for dead in boxing terms way back in 2004.
He didn’t stay dead.
Klitschko was unbeaten in 22 fights from April 2004 to November 2015, winning three sanctioning body titles, the Ring magazine belt, capturing the divisional lineage, and rattling off 18 consecutive (IBF) title defenses. Along the way, he defeated just about every contender that mattered sans his brother Vitali and, despite aging, kept fighting top contenders all along the way.
It’s not his fault he didn’t get a chance at revenge against the man who ultimately lifted his crown. Tyson Fury, plagued with outside the ring issues, pulled out of their scheduled rematches more than once and is only now claiming to be getting himself back into ring shape.
This might be designed as Joshua’s moment but will it be Klitschko’s story? It could be the climactic chapter of one of the most dominant runs in heavyweight history. It would also be a hard power shot at Klitschko skeptics.
They still exist.
How else to describe an almost universal picking of Joshua in this fight? The press poll at Ring Magazine favors Joshua 29-1. ESPN had a smaller pool but still came in almost all Joshua at 12-1.
There are logical, fistic explanations. Boxing favors the young and Klitschko isn’t that anymore. Joshua is big, athletic, has some skill, and can punch like hell. In a battle of Super Heavyweight Olympic gold medalists, Joshua’s came 16 years after Klitschko’s (1996 to 2012). History says, in showdowns of this sort, bet the young guy.
That makes sense.
There is another element.
There is a feeling in some corners of the boxing universe, once more loud and overt, that Klitschko really isn’t as good as his accomplishments. His best years were not banner years at heavyweight and his dominance evolved as talent in the ring seemed to dry up. Some of his opportunities might be attributable, in this vein of thought, to older brother Vitali retiring for several years due to injuries.
Then there was the opposition. There were opponents who could box, some who could punch, and a few who could talk a good game, but rarely the sort of total package threats who could emerge from a pack of parity all around him. To make matters worse, his opponents weren’t all that interesting against each other either.
His numbers say he’s one of the greats. It’s not a stretch to say that, even after two successful decades in the ring, there are a lot of people who don’t see Klitschko as more than just a really good heavyweight in a really bad era. His cerebral style, excessive clinching, and tentativeness in the ring after the Sanders and Brewster losses regularly made watching him a chore. Klitschko put foes to sleep; too many times members of the audience were already napping.
Joshua looks the part, the most appealing and impressive undefeated physical talent to rise in the division since arguably Riddick Bowe and Lennox Lewis in the early 1990s. He’s so far been everything fans have clamored for: an aggressive, exciting force who goes looking to destroy from the opening bell instead of after rounds draped over the other guys back.
It doesn’t matter, to those never fully sold on Klitschko, that there were plenty of thrills along the way. Destructive wins over Chris Byrd, Calvin Brock, and a particularly sensational drilling of Kubrat Pulev in 2014 weren’t enough to erase the memories of long ago stumbles, the mugging atrocity of his win over Alexander Povetkin, or the late Emanuel Steward begging him to get assertive against light fisted Eddie Chambers.
For years, there was a wait for the other shoe to drop and for Klitschko to drop again with it. That wait lasted over a decade and then came with a whimper instead of a bang against the tricky Fury. With a win on Saturday, Klitschko can laugh to stop from screaming “go to hell” at everyone who denied the professionalism and boxing class it took to win for as long as he did.
There is an audacity in Joshua, whose best win might be then fellow prospect Dillian Whyte, jumping straight from journeyman and emerging talents to the most accomplished heavyweight of his time. Klitschko can polish his story of redemption by transforming audacity to foolish arrogance.
That’s a fine hook.
It’s not the story most of the crowd is coming to see.
They’re coming to see the start of a new heavyweight era with a hopeful eye to days of more heavyweight excitement. Excitement has been lacking.
The two most lauded eras of the television age at heavyweight came in the 1970s and 1990s. It wasn’t just the quality of the fighters or the depth. It was also a matter of temperament. Rivalries like Muhammad Ali-Joe Frazier and Evander Holyfield-Riddick Bowe colored the top of the landscape. Just under the horizon were memorable battles like Ron Lyle-Ernie Shavers and Ray Mercer-Tommy Morrison. There was plenty of junk too but the good well outweighed the bad.
Right now it feels like something is changing at heavyweight. The feeling has been growing for a couple of years but this weekend could be the moment of full bloom. There have been some thrilling recent fights, foremost the Whyte-Derek Chisora war earlier this year, but that’s a symptom of a broader temperament change.
Fighters like Joshua, Deontay Wilder, Joseph Parker, and Luis Ortiz may or may not one day be mentioned as part of a great era. For now, they are a fresh sea of possibilities that carry heavy hands and aggressive tendencies. The path they are walking is unpredictable; they haven’t started to sort things out in the ring together yet but it all smells like fan friendly violence.
This weekend, Joshua can play fistic Reggie Jackson. He can become the straw that stirs the drink. His audacity is commendable. Joshua could have bided his time, continued to build his quality of opposition, and been fine. Instead, he’s pushing his chips to the center of the table and saying he’s ready now.
Joshua has never faced anyone as good as Klitschko. No one has ever faced anyone as good as their first elite opponent until they do. He’s daring himself to show the world that Klitschko has never seen anything like him.
In a single night, Joshua can not only tell a story of arrival in the ring but also become the central story in the sports future. Boxing is starving for a transcendent heavyweight. Perhaps in the disregard for Klitschko among the picks that have flooded in on Joshua, there is a bit of a wish taking place, a wish to see boxing’s flagship weight class take full sail again.
It’s not a bad wish to have. Thing are just better when heavyweight is on fire.
The opening bell can’t get here soon enough. Until it sounds…
Let’s go the report card.
The Ledgers
Anthony Joshua
Age: 27
?Title: IBF Heavyweight (2016-Present, 2 Defenses)
Previous Titles: None
?Height: 6’6
Weight: 250 lbs.
?Hails from: Watford, Hertfordshire, United Kingdom
Record: 18-0, 18 KO
Rankings: #1 (TBRB, Boxing Monthly, BoxRec), #5 (Ring, ESPN), #6 (BoxingScene)
Record in Major Title Fights: 3-0, 3 KO
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: Charles Martin KO2
Vs.
Wladimir Klitschko
Age: 41
Title: None
Previous Titles: WBO Heavyweight (2000-03, 5 Defenses); IBF Heavyweight (2006-15, 18 Defenses); IBO Heavyweight (2006-15, 18 Defenses); WBO Heavyweight (2008-15, 14 Defenses); Lineal/Ring World Heavyweight (2009-15, 11 Defenses); WBA ‘Super’ Heavyweight (2011-15, 8 Defenses); TBRB (2013-15, 3 Defenses)
Height: 6’6
Weight: 240 ¼ lbs.
?Hails from: Kiev, Ukraine
Record: 64-4, 53 KO, 3 KOBY
Rankings: #1 (Ring), #2 (ESPN), #3 (Boxing Monthly)
Record in Major Title Fights: 25-3, 19 KO, 2 KOBY; 12-1, 8 KO (Lineal Title Only)
Current/Former World Champions Faced: Chris Byrd UD12, TKO7; Ray Mercer TKO6; Corrie Sanders TKO by 2; Lamon Brewster TKO by 5, RTD6; Samuel Peter UD12, KO10; Sultan Ibragimov UD12; Hasim Rahman TKO7; Ruslan Chagaev RTD9; David Haye UD12; Jean Marc Mormeck KO4; Alexander Povetkin UD12 – WBA Regular Titlist; Tyson Fury L12
Grades
Pre-Fight: Speed – Joshua B+; Klitschko B
Pre-Fight: Power – Joshua A+; Klitschko A+
Pre-Fight: Defense – Joshua B; Klitschko B
Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Joshua B+; Klitschko A
One of the things that made Klitschko so effective for so long is he developed into one of the better defensive fighters in the world. If the point is hit and don’t get hit, he mastered it for a long time. Yes, there was a lot of holding and pushing in that defense but he’s not the first heavyweight to employ the clinch or other assorted fouls. Lennox Lewis was a master of it, Jack Johnson was a holding and hitting artist, and Ali’s neck work was a burden on many a foe. Coming down from heavyweight, a lot of what Klitschko gets criticized for defensively was often called genius when Bernard Hopkins did it at middleweight and light heavyweight.
Klitschko is adept at using his length to avoid punches. It’s not always pretty and sometimes prevents him from being in immediate punching range but all that size has meant opponents have to cross the gap to him. Against Fury, he had an opponent who could best his reach and height and feinted him into knots. Fury didn’t have to worry about walking into power.
Joshua doesn’t have the same edges in height and reach but he’s a much harder puncher than Fury. He goes to the body and might be the most promising inside fighter of his size since Bowe. Joshua also has a countering ability Klitschko has never really developed. Klitschko, going back to the amateurs, has been most comfortable leading. As he grew more cautious, he was even less likely to attempt counters. Instead, he holds.
If Joshua can feint Klitschko into missing, his straight right hand and heavy left hook will be open. If Klitschko tries to tie him up, he has to use his physical strength to resist and work the ribs of the older man. Both men have excellent jabs but Joshua is, relative to his size, more mobile. That could create angles for offense.
Klitschko, in his last two fights, seems to have lost some in terms of speed. What might have been an even category a couple years ago appears to favor Joshua now. That matters because Joshua is going to want to be first. If he lets Klitschko set the pace, he can be drug into an ugly fight that plays right into the challenger’s hands.
Klitschko’s chin might always hold a question mark but he hasn’t been on the deck since the DaVarryl Williamson fight in 2005. His chin is better than he gets credit for and Joshua can’t count on one shot to finish Klitschko. Even the men who have stopped Klitschko didn’t do it with single shots for the ten count. The bigger question might be Joshua’s whiskers.
We’ve only seen Joshua’s chin tested once so far. Whyte rocked him good in their fight. Joshua responded well, holding on and keeping his balance. Klitschko is a puncher and will be as long as they’re both standing. If he catches Joshua, does the younger man know how to get up and survive? Does he have enough to take a Klitschko power shot?
We won’t know until we know. Had Joshua faced a few more veteran lights with the ability to truly test him along the way, there might be more clues. The best thing for Joshua to do is keep his hands up, stay focused, and not find out what he can’t take.
Intangibles here are hard to predict because we’re still learning about Joshua. So far, he’s met his obligations. Klitschko is also hard to predict. He’s never appeared comfortable under fire but he responds in different ways. Against Pulev, he was rocked early with a jab and responded by unleashing his full arsenal. Against Fury, he took shots and just sort of seemed lost at times. If Joshua hurts him early, does he fight back or try to contain him? Does he have the legs at 41 to endure if the battle stretches out?
The Pick
In the end, this pick is going the way most of them are. A gnawing in the back of the mind says Klitschko has all the doubters right where he wants them. His level of public comfort and calm on the eve of what has turned into the biggest event of his career gives pause. He can win this fight and, on resume, should. The thinking here is he won’t. There’s not enough in-ring evidence yet to say that Joshua is as good as he looks but he passes the eye test in a big way. He’s a natural aggressor in with an aging man who hasn’t seen a foe with this kind of power, size, speed, and youth throughout his many years on top. Perhaps it’s all been a well-managed façade but considering the value Joshua holds today and in the years ahead, it’s hard to believe his team would be reckless with him. They believe they’ve got the goods, Joshua looks the part, and Saturday is going to be a good day for the fans in the UK. When Joshua starts to land he’ll put Klitschko on the back foot and it’s downhill from there. Joshua might get his bell rung but he’ll overwhelm Klitschko sooner than later. The pick is Joshua inside five rounds.
Report Card and Staff Picks 2017: 10-7
Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene, a founding member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com
