By Cliff Rold

Almost is okay.

Almost is especially okay when it describes an event which did not occur.  For instance, 26-year old WBO Jr. Featherweight titlist Juan Manuel Lopez (27-0, 24 KO), Puerto Rico’s presumed next big thing, almost lost his last time out.

Unheralded tough guy Rogers Mtagwa was supposed to be an opponent last October, someone to go few rounds while enriching Lopez’s Madison Square Garden bona fides.  It didn’t quite work out that way, Lopez forced to reach deep late in the fight just to stay on his feet, counting on an early lead to bag a unanimous decision. 

Juan Manuel Lopez almost lost.

But he didn’t.

This Saturday, he returns to the Garden aimed at win number 28 in a brand new division and the education of Juan Manuel Lopez will continue to play out for the world to see.  What’s been learned so far, by the fighter and his audience, has enough good and bad to continue to make the unfolding story worth watching.

Prior to the Mtagwa bout, Lopez’s learning curve was pretty standard for a blue chip talent.  Faded former contenders like Luis Bolano, Hugo Dianzo, and Giovanni Andrade helped build his record.  A defensively flawed but exciting puncher in Daniel Ponce De Leon gave him a chance, in June 2008, to win his first belt with a first round shelling.

So far, so good, no almost anywhere to be found.  Knockout artists are never bad for business.  With Felix Trinidad only a guest star in the sport over the last decade, Miguel Cotto beginning to show signs of wear, and Ivan Calderon too small to make a market splash, Lopez was positioned to wear the island nation’s superstar mantle.

After De Leon, it was a slow drag.  In his first four title defenses, Lopez was matched with foes that could keep him where he was but not allow for much growth.  Cesar Figueroa and Sergio Medina were tee ball games and Lopez rounded the bases accordingly.  Gerry Penalosa could fight back but did so without the fire power or size to back it up.  Olivier Lontchi stood tough, and got up more than once from the floor, but couldn’t punch a lick and was eventually run over.

While not the first fighter ever to milk their new belt with a string of easy ones, the Lontchi fight forced the question of whether there was something about Lopez which needed protecting.  Mtagwa almost gave us an answer.

Or, perhaps, Mtagwa did.

Throughout 2009, Lopez was called out by fellow 122-lb. titlist Celestino Caballero.  There was talk about that being the fight the world would have seen this weekend though ultimately money appears to have derailed the confrontation for now.  Regardless, Caballero never seemed publicly to be the first choice of Team Lopez.  It wasn’t hard to understand.  Caballero is an awkward boxer with big power who stands almost six-feet tall and can go from looking ordinary to looking like a beast when the spotlight calls for it. 

The pay-per-view encounter with Mtagwa proved once again that no fight can be taken for granted.  Despite already collecting 12 losses in his forty fights to then, Mtagwa was motivated and fought his heart out.  However, those twelve losses were no accident and Lopez was so close to the brink that it was easy to imagine what might have happened had Caballero been across the ring. 

Caballero wasn’t across the ring though and there were positives which could be taken from the Mtagwa fight.  Lopez has the heart of a champion for certain.  He’s also got the ability to think through the fog.  He did what he had to do to keep from the floor late and save his “0.”  Does it mean anything that Mtagwa was the one who forced him into the situation?  Maybe; maybe not. 

He’s not the first young fighter to have a tougher night than anyone saw coming.  Before he was Heavyweight champion, Riddick Bowe needed some very friendly judging to get by former titlist Tony Tubbs.  Oscar De La Hoya got all he could handle from John John Molina in his early years.  Mtagwa isn’t in the same class as Molina or Tubbs, but sometimes just being tough and determined on the right night is good enough.

Lopez ultimately passed the test and if, in a few years, he’s taken the place among the pound-for-pound elite many predict for him, that test will be one of the reasons he earned the right to be there. 

What then can be learned about the choice of foe in his rise to Featherweight.  Lopez is gearing up to challenge WBO 126 lb. beltholder Steven Luevano (37-1-1, 15 KO) and it is noticeable that he is immediately matched with someone who isn’t a big puncher.  That’s smart.  After Mtagwa, another physical war right away wouldn’t do much for Lopez’s staying power. 

A lack of significant pop doesn’t make Luevano a significant underdog.  A crafty counter puncher, Luevano is the best fighter in the division right now not named Chris John.  Unlike Penalosa, this is a world class fighter who can match Lopez’s size.  He’s live and, granted the biggest stage of his career with an HBO audience, should bring his best stuff.  Luevano’s capable of winning the fight and, importantly for Lopez, capable of providing the next set of lessons.

 

As Lopez moves higher on the scale, and higher in prominence, the chances for Figueroa’s and Medina’s wanes.  The education of Lopez continues this Saturday with some still seeing potential superstardom, others waiting for a shoe to drop.

It’s almost always like that with the fighters worth watching on their way up.

Weekly Ledger

But wait, there’s more…especially for those who missed a lengthy look at the best of the decade:

Top 25 – Misses: https://www.boxingscene.com/?m=show&id=24538

Top 25 Pt. 1: https://www.boxingscene.com/?m=show&id=24591

Top 25 – Top Ten: https://www.boxingscene.com/?m=show&id=24673

FNF Coverage: https://www.boxingscene.com/?m=show&id=24721

Picks of the Week: https://www.boxingscene.com/?m=show&id=24766

Cliff’s Notes…

While he didn’t beat Lopez, Mtagwa at least won himself another check and title shot, squaring off with undefeated Cuban phenom Yuriokis Gamboa on the Lopez-Luevano undercard this weekend.  Can he do it again?  Hopes for a Lopez-Gamboa fight sometime later this year hang in the balance…I don’t care how they get there, but if we’re not going to see Floyd Mayweather-Manny Pacquiao, and there is a chance for Mayweather-Shane Mosley, it must happen.  It’s a fight years overdue…Why is anyone upset about Bernard Hopkins-Roy Jones II being a pay-per-view?  No one is mandated to make the purchase and think positive: it’s not taking budget funds away from a real fight.  Remember, if over the summer the world sees Chad Dawson-Jean Pascal on regular HBO for only the cost of subscription, part of what helped make that fight happen was not wasting money on an ego stroke for a couple old men…Come back Kurt Warner!  There’s got to be one more year in that arm…

Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel and the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com